Syria Deeply: In the Wake of ISIS, Everything in Syria Stands to Get Worse
Dear Deeply Readers,
It pains us to report that practically everything we’ve ever told you about Syria now stands to get worse. The global analysis and alarm over the swift conquests of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) only begin to capture the consequence of what’s happening on the ground.
“Suddenly, the cohesion and integrity of two major countries, not just one, is in question,”said U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Friday.
Earlier that week, U.N. investigators released a report warning that the Middle East is on the brink of wider sectarian war.
“A regional war in the Middle East draws ever closer. Events in neighboring Iraq will have violent repercussions for Syria,” according to the U.N. report.
“Growing numbers of radical fighters are targeting not only Sunni [Muslim] communities under their control but also minority communities including the Shiites, Alawites, Christians, Armenians, Druze and Kurds,” it said.
On Saturday ISIS took control of the Qaim border crossing, enabling its fighters to move heavy weapons more easily between Syria and Iraq. That line between them is beginning to draw comparisons with the Afghanistan-Pakistan border – a porous frontier where jihadi fighters and their operations run out of control. ISIS also captured three other Iraqi towns on the highway from Syria to Baghdad, CNN reports.
“There’s no doubt the border is melting away,” an anonymous U.S. official told the Washington Post.
As ISIS openly pursues its quest to establish an Islamic caliphate over the land it controls, analysts have started to see the emerging ISIS landmass as the statelet of “Syriaq,” as Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute called it.
Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution, an expert on global jihad, agrees with that analysis.
“There’ll be a half-state that straddles the Syrian-Iraqi border that might not even have most of the structures of the state. It will be more like a Wild West no-man’s land than anything else,” Riedel told Syria Deeply.
“It will have no oil and very little infrastructure, but it will be a breeding space for terrorists for Syria and Iraq, the region as a whole, and Europe and the U.S. That’s probably what this is going to look like three months from now.”
The White House is deciding how to deal with the Iraq-Syria crisis, which it now sees as a single challenge, the Washington Post reports.
“At a National Security Council meeting this week, President Obama and his senior advisers reviewed the consequences of possible air strikes in Iraq, a bolder push to train Syria’s moderate rebel factions, and various political initiatives to break down the sectarian divisions that have stirred Iraq’s Sunni Muslims against the Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki,” the paper writes.
It is an ambitious list of measures to undertake. President Barack Obama himself laid out a conceptual framework for how to do it.
“The key to both Syria and Iraq is going to be a combination of what happens inside the country, working with moderate Syrian opposition, working with an Iraqi government that is inclusive, and us laying down a more effective counterterrorism platform that gets all the countries in the region pulling in the same direction,” Obama said at a news conference Thursday.
“What we have to do is to be able to build effective partnerships,” he said.
That’s something the U.S. has been unable to do, throughout the course of Syria’s war. The chance that it can do so now, under a more complex set of interests and dynamics, is slim.
While the rise of ISIS solidifies Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s longtime position – that Syrians face a stark choice between his regime and brutal terrorists – he is also facing the downside of the group’s ascent. Iraqi Shiite fighters are retreating from Assad’s side to wage their own war at home, following a call to arms by their religious leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Analyst Firas Abi Ali of IHS Country Risk says the Syrian regime will compensate using manpower drawn from Hezbollah, according to the AP.
The urgency of the ISIS crisis has overshadowed the everyday calamities of Syria’s war – although they remain just as deadly. The BBC filed this heart-wrenching report from western Aleppo, rare footage of the suffering civilians living in the regime-held areas of the city. It showed a moonscape of destruction and civilians forced to drink contaminated water, for lack of a better option.
The government’s aerial siege of eastern Aleppo continued, with the barrel bombing of opposition-held areas – a series of explosives that killed at least 31 people on Monday, AFP reports. In Homs a car bomb hit a majority Alawite area, killing six people.
Further south, near Syria’s Jordanian border, Syrian army helicopters launched their first raid on an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp. At least 20 people were killed, mostly women and children, Reuters reports. Even in the context of a brutal civil war, it was an attack that shocked aid workers and humanitarian groups.
This week the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the chemical watchdog group overseeing Syria’s handover of banned weapons, said it believes chlorine gas and other toxic chemicals are being used in a “systematic manner.” Opposition groups say that aerial raids, which are launched exclusively by Syria’s army, have unleashed a series of deadly chlorine gas attacks on civilian areas. The OPCW launched a preliminary report on the allegations, but could not present conclusive findings; one of their vehicles came under attack while on the way to investigate the site of an alleged chlorine attack.
While the OPCW monitors the removal of Syria’s chemical weapons, Syria looks set to miss the critical June 30 deadline for the handover and destruction of its chemical stockpile. The U.S. is pushing the OPCW to enforce consequences, though it’s unclear what they would be.
“Syria has deliberately frustrated the council’s efforts to complete destruction by June 30. The council will need to acknowledge that Syria has not met its obligations to remove these dangerous materials so that they can be destroyed,” wrote Robert P. Mikulak, the U.S. permanent representative to the OPCW.
The Assad regime is also being criticized for making it more difficult for U.N. agencies to deliver aid to Syrian civilians.
“What we are now being told is that everything has to be centralized through Damascus,” said Valerie Amos, the U.N.’s emergency relief coordinator. The New York Times quotes Amos as saying that delivering aid “has actually become more difficult, not easier” since June 3, when Assad claimed re-election with 90 percent of the popular vote.
Those conditions have now pushed more than 1 million Syrian refugees into Turkey. The millions of Syrians who have been forced to leave their homes are now part of what’s being called the worst global refugee crisis since World War I.
It is a twist of fate for Syria itself.
“In 2008, it was the world’s second largest refugee-hosting country,” writes the New York Times. “By 2013, it was the world’s second largest refugee-producing country.”
Highlights from Syria Deeply:
HRW Reports Abuses in Syria’s Kurdish Northeast
Syrian Kurds Mobilize as ISIS Moves Weapons into Deir Ezzor
Hopes of Freedom Fade in ISIS-Held Syrian City
Child Slavery on the Rise: A Syrian Mother Speaks of Her Son, Sold Into Battle
One Year After a Massacre in al-Bayda, Residents Remain in Exile
Iraq, Syria and ISIS: Analysts Weigh in on What It All Means
My Syrian Diary: Even Those Who Are Here Are Gone
Headlines from the Week
New York Times: A Glimpse of Syrian Lives Ravaged by War in Homs
Guardian: Up to 400 British Citizens May be Fighting in Syria, Says William Hague
BBC: The Suffering Civilians of West Aleppo
AP: Insurgent Gains Show How Closely Iraq, Syria Conflicts Are Intertwined
AFP: Moderate Syria Rebels Quit Over ‘Lack of Military Aid’
Los Angeles Times: ISIS Aims to Recruit Westerners with Video
Supreme Court Upholds Federal Law Against Straw Purchases
By Lyndsey Kelly
Desk Reporter, North America
WASHINGTON, D.C.- United States of America – A Supreme Court decision on 16 June 2014 has allowed prosecution under a federal law that requires gun buyers to disclose that they are making their purchase for someone else, even if both the straw buyer and the real buyer are eligible to own guns.
The decision upheld a federal law that makes it a crime for one person to buy a gun for another, when the purchaser lies to the dealer about who the gun is actually for. Federal law considers this a straw-man purchase.
The 5-4 decision upheld two lower courts that had ruled against straw-man purchases, despite the fact that the justices acknowledged that Congress left loopholes in gun control laws that were passed in the 1960’s and the 1990’s.
The case came before the Supreme Court after a former Virginia police officer, Bruce Abramski, plead guilty to making a false statement when purchasing a firearm. Abramski was sentenced to five years of probation
Abramski, bought the handgun for his uncle, Angel Alvarez, who lived in Pennsylvania at the time. When purchasing the handgun, Abramski filled out a federal form indicating that he was buying the gun for himself. Abramski defended his actions by stating that he assumed that by showing his old police ID he would receive a discount from the dealer.
Richard Deitz, Abramski’s attorney, argued that when the federal law was enacted Congress had intended to focus only on the initial buyer. “Congress didn’t use terms like ‘true buyer’ or ‘true purchaser’…because they are not concerned about the ultimate recipients of firearms.” Dietz said.
The Court was split along ideological lines. Writing for the majority, Justice Elena Kagan rejected Mr. Abramski’s argument that his misstatement had been immaterial because the purpose of the federal law was solely to ensure that the immediate buyer was eligible to own a gun.
She wrote, “Abramski’s reading would undermine-indeed, for all important purposes would virtually repeal- the gun law’s core provisions.” Justice Kagan said that the law helps keep guns out of the hands of those not legally able to buy them, including those suffering from mental illnesses or those with previous felony convictions. Justice Kagan passionately wrote, “putting true numbskulls to one side, anyone purchasing a gun for criminal purposes would avoid leaving a paper trail by the simple expedient of hiring a straw.”
The dissenting justices said that the federal law in question makes no distinction between people who purchased guns for themselves and buyers who intended to purchase for later resale. Justice Antonin Scalia’s dissenting opinion made specific mention of the legality of purchasing guns as gifts or for later resale.
This is the second decision this term by the conservative court that went against the gun lobby.
For more information see the following:
REUTERS – Supreme Court Rules Against ‘Straw Buyer’ In Gun Case – 23 June 2014.
NBC NEWS – Divided Supreme Court Shoots Down ‘Straw’ Purchases of Guns – 23 June 2014.
NEW YORK TIMES – Supreme Court Rules Against ‘Straw’ Purchases Of Guns – 23 June 2014.
USA TODAY – Supreme Court Rules Against ‘Straw Purchasers’ of Guns – 23 June 2014.
Neves Nominated to Challenge Rousseff in October Election
by Mridula Tirumalasetti
Impunity Watch Reporter, South America
BRASILIA, Brazil–Senator Aecio Neves has received the nomination of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, or PSDB, to run against President Dilma Rousseff in the election this October. Neves is running on a platform to reduce inflation and encourage economic growth by introducing pro-market measures and cutting public spending. In a speech at the national convention of the PSDB in Sao Paulo, Neves said “We are hostages today to the worst economic equation in emerging markets, with minimal growth and worsening inflation.” Neves also told news sources, “Our government will create a more serene and propitious climate for the market, which is important to recover investments and grow.” Neves has been known to have criticized the ruling party, the Workers Party, because of corruption and has said he would maintain the social programs in Brazil which have brought poverty down.
Rousseff was elected in October 2010 as Brazil’s first woman president. Born to a Bulgarian immigrant, Rousseff joined the underground left-wing resistance in 1964. She spent three years in jail, where she was tortured, after being arrested in 1970.
Rousseff’s popularity is dropping as Brazil faces economic uncertainty, but also because of the numerous protests over the public spending for the World Cup soccer tournament and the series of scandals at the energy company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, which is state-run. In addition to the labor strikes that have been ensuing, Rousseff has been the target of verbally aggressive chants coming from crowds during the World Cup. Rouseff has said that the chants did not reflect the views of the majority of Brazilians. However, there have been an increasing number of Brazilian voters who have publicly said they would never vote for Rousseff.
Although Neves promises that an adjustment will be made regarding fiscal policy, Neves does not promise an overnight remedy and has said I could take two to three years before inflation goes down. Neves is the former governor of Minas Gerais, one of Brazil’s most populous states and second richest state, and plans to establish a meritocracy. He currently serves as a senator.
The Brazilian election is October 5. Polls show Rousseff has dropped in poll ratings from 34% in April to 32.2% this month, though she is still the frontrunner. Neves has gained popularity from 19.9% to 21.5%. If neither candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, a runoff election will take place on October 26.
For more information, please see:
UK Reuters–Opposition candidate closes in on Brazil’s Rouseff ahead of vote–15 June 2014
UK Reuters–Brazil’s Rouseff loses support ahead of Oct vote-poll–11 June 2014
Bloomberg News–Brazil’s Neves Gets Party Endorsement, to Challenge Rouseff–14 June 2014
BBC News–Brazil opposition appoints Neves to challenge Rouseff–14 June 2014
The Guardian–Brazil’s Dilma Rouseff shrugs off World Cup abuse–14 June 2014
Fiji Asks For Help to Fight the Affects of Climate Change in the Pacific
by Max Bartels
Impunity Watch Reporter, Oceania
Savu, Fiji
The Government of the island nation of Fiji is accusing the international community, pointing mainly at Australia, of being selfish in regards to climate change policy. Fiji, like many other pacific nations is suffering greatly from the rising sea levels; these small island nations contribute very little to global carbon emissions but are suffering the consequences of the rest of the world’s high level of carbon output.
(Photo Curtesy of Fiji Times)
In a climate change summit hosted by Fiji, interim Prime Minister Bainimara said the global will to combat climate change is receding. He further pointed at Australia, saying that since the election of conservative Prime Minister Tony Abbot there has been a distinct change of attitude in Australia toward climate change policy. Abbot has been quoted as saying that he will not support any climate change policy in Australia that would negatively impact the Australian economy.
The interim Prime Minister of Fiji issued a harsh statement to the world, pointed at Australia and Prime Minister Abbot, saying that history will judge them harshly if they do nothing to effect policy change and allow the islands of the pacific to sink below the ocean. He further stated that leaders need to see the situation is dire for Fiji and other island nations and that leaders need to risk minor economic impact to save lives.
Indonesia was invited to the climate change summit in Fiji and pledged support to Fiji in combating climate change. Indonesia also has a strong incentive to mitigate the effects of climate change in the pacific. Indonesia has offered $20 million to Fiji to help fight the effects of climate change and has offered further support in the form of increased trade agreements with Fiji to boost trade revenue by a targeted $1 billion in the future.
The situation in Fiji is so serious that entire communities have had to be relocated since January 2014. The village of Vaunidogola had to be relocated to higher ground due to rising sea levels; the relocation affected 50 families whose ancestors had lived on that land for generations. The government of Fiji has also identified 600 villages across the Fiji islands that are at risk from the rising sea levels. The government predicts that over the next 10 years 40 settlements will have to be relocated due to the rise in sea levels, the pollution of the ground water and the destruction of agricultural land.
For more Information, please see:
The Fiji Times — Climate Change Challenge — 21 June 2014
SBS News Australia — Rising Sea Levels Prompts Relocation in Fiji — 31 January 2014