Record high temperatures in February and a dry El Nino season have combined to leave 49 million hungry across southern and eastern Africa. The UN’s World Food Program has declared that Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, Malawi and Swaziland will all be in need of food assistance within the year. The El Nino driven drought will have far reaching effects past food and water shortages and will make these populations venerable to other natural disasters like fires and infectious disease.
This season’s El Nino pattern has been unusual in two respects. First, it has been much more severe than any in recent memory. South Africa is having the driest season it has seen in 35 years, while South America is dealing with heavy rains. Second, it is predicted to last longer than normal. This El Nino pattern started in mid-2015 and many meteorologists are predicting it to last throughout much of 2016.
El Nino is a natural weather pattern that is brought on by the warming of the Pacific Ocean. Although it is a natural occurrence many meteorologist believe the increased severity is a result of global climate change.
Drought conditions and high temperatures are severely affecting crop yields in South African countries. Zimbabwe has seen output drop by half compared to 2015. Other countries have seen similar drops in production which has sent prices for staples crops, like maze, 50-70% higher in some regions. Should drought conditions and crop failure continue, these high prices and poor economic conditions could be felt well into 2017.
The UN and other aid agencies have been slow to react to these increasingly serious conditions. Global aid is already spread thin from other emergencies like the Syrian and Ebola crisis. Ocha, the UN’s coordination agency began to put need estimates out in mid-February of what response may be needed. These numbers show just how large and wide spread a problem this sever El Nino season is creating. Ten million are projected to need food aid in Ethiopia and 2.8 million more will see some kind of need in Guatemala and Honduras.
A detailed response plan has not yet been laid out by these organizations but one will likely be needed because of the scale of the problem. Even if the rains started today regions would still be faced with some food shortages. Britain’s Department for International Development said in a statement, “the planting window for cereals has already closed in the southern part of the region [Africa] and is fast closing elsewhere.”
For more information please see:
The Guardian – El Niño is causing global food crisis, UN warns – 16 Feb. 2016
Reuters – Drought may affect 49 million in southern Africa: WFP – 15 Feb. 2016
Reuters – South Africa drought likely to persist -weather service – 18 Dec. 2015
