PEACE NEGOTIATIONS WATCH

Friday, December 10, 2010
Volume IX, Number 45

In this issue:

CONFLICT UPDATES

Bosnia
Burma
Georgia
Kenya
Nepal
Somaliland
Sudan: Darfur
Sudan: Southern Sudan
Tanzania
Uganda
Zimbabwe

Bosnia

Serb Court Postpones Guns Case Against Mladic Wife
Associated Press, December 3, 2010
On December 3, a Serbian court postponed the case against Ratko
Mladic’s wife until April 2011.  Ms. Bosiljka Mladic has been charged
with possession of illegal weapons.  The charges stemmed from a police
search of the Mladic family home in 2008.  Mr. Mladic remains a
fugitive wanted for allegedly masterminding the 1995 Srebrenica
genocide. Senior government and police officials recently pledged that
the entire state security system is working to find Mr. Mladic.

Bosnia Struggles to Form State and Entity Governments
WAZ.EUObserver, December 6, 2010
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) still has not formed state or entity
governments, two months after its general elections were held.
European Union (EU) observers, including the EU Enlargement
Commissioner Stefan Fule, have urged leaders to work together to
create the governments.  Observers also believe that Bosnian Serb
leader Milorad Dodik is the key to any efforts at coalition building.
The EU continues to emphasize the need for BiH constitutional reform
to respect the European Convention on Human Rights and improve its
state functions.

Bosnian Experts Find Mass Grave that May Contain Victims of the Srebrenica Massacre
Associated Press, December 6, 2010
Bosnian forensic experts claimed that they have found and opened a
mass grave in Kaldrmica village, which may contain the remains of
approximately fifty Muslim Bosniak civilians killed in the 1995
Srebrenica massacre.  The leader of the forensic team, Amor Masovic,
also indicated that the first layer of remains may include women.  In
the massacre, Serb troops targeted primarily Bosniak men and boys,
killing around eight thousand people.

Burma

National League for Democracy to Release Report on Junta Electoral Fraud
Mizzima, December 1, 2010
The National League for Democracy (NLD) has drafted a report
investigating the Burmese junta’s electoral fraud in the November
national elections.  The nearly twenty-page report documents the
junta’s forced collections of advance votes, among other detailed
accounts of electoral fraud.  The NLD will likely publish the report
in the first week of December.

Burma Transition Should Include Those Who Did Not Take Part in Polls – UN Envoy
UN News Center, December 2, 2010
United Nations (UN) Special Advisor to the Secretary-General on Burma,
Vijay Nambiar, urged the Burmese junta to make the political
transition as inclusive as possible and to include people who did not
participate in the November 7 elections.  Nambiar reported that his
recent visit had been relatively open and that he was able to meet
with whomever he wanted, including members of the junta, Aung San Suu
Kyi, and other members of the NLD.  He stated that the Burmese
military saw an increasing role for the UN in improving the
environment for economic development and in working to remove the
sanctions in place against Burma.

Burmese Army Dispatching More Arms to Kachin State
Kachin News, December 3, 2010
The Burmese junta has been sending an increasing amount of heavy
weaponry to Kachin state during the past several weeks.  The junta has
also been reinforcing its troops and augmenting its arms supplies at
its camps near the headquarters of the Kachin Independence
Organization (KIO) and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).  The
military movement has raised concerns among locals that there is an
increased likelihood of war breaking out between the junta and the
KIA.

Georgia

Saakashvili, at EU Parliament, Calls for Direct Dialogue with Kremlin
Radio Free Europe, November 23, 2010
In his address to the European Parliament, Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili proposed direct talks with Russia regarding South Ossetia
and Abkhazia, affirming his willingness to start a comprehensive
dialogue with Russia.  He also expressed hopes that Russia would stop
hindering discussions on the issue and stated further that while
Georgia will continue to participate in the Geneva talks, political
dialogue with Russia is crucial.

Abkhaz, South Ossetian Officials Dismiss Georgian President’s Assurances
Radio Free Europe, November 28, 2010
In response to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s call for
direct talks with Russia on Abkhazia and South Ossetia, officials from
the two regions expressed skepticism at Saakashvili’s pledge to not
resort to force to bring the territories back under Georgia’s control.
Both Abkhaz and Russian officials demanded that President Saakashvili
make an official, legally binding commitment on paper to support his
pledge.

Kenya

The ICC Six Will Be Known in Two Weeks
Capital News, December 2, 2010
According to International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Luis
Moreno-Ocampo, the identity of six Kenyans who are allegedly the most
responsible for the 2008 post-election violence will be revealed in
the next two weeks.  The six individuals will be served with summons
to appear before the court, and arrest warrants will be issued if they
do not abide by the summons.  Mr. Moreno-Ocampo said that his office
will file two cases, and that trials are scheduled to begin in late
2012 or early 2013.

Case Filed at The Hague to Block ICC Probe
Capital News, December 3, 2010
Kenyan security officials have filed a case at the ICC asking the
Court to order the prosecutor to stop taking evidence from the
officials.  The complaint also asked the Court to give the officials a
guarantee that they will not be prosecuted for the post-election
violence in 2008.  The officials argued that their rights have been
violated by being compelled to give testimony.  They have also
requested that any indictments by the prosecutor be suspended until
the case is settled.

Kenya MPs Retreat to Resolve Boundary Row
Kenya Broadcasting Corporation, December 5, 2010
Members of Parliament (MPs) will meet in the latest attempt to resolve
the stalemate over constituency boundaries.  MPs are divided over the
issue, as some oppose the proposed 80 consistencies.  The
Parliamentary Committee on Justice and Legal Affairs has begun
negotiations with a caucus of MPs to find a solution to the dispute
and have identified four options for MPs to consider at the upcoming
meeting.

Nepal

Special Panel on PLA Ignores UNMIN Advice
The Himalayan Times, December 2, 2010
Maoists insisted that an agreement on the issue of People’s Liberation
Army (PLA) fighters can only be reached after a general consensus on
the peace process.  UN Under Secretary General for Political Affairs
B. Lynn Pascoe advised the parties not to waste their time and money
on setting up a new infrastructure to replace the UN Mission in Nepal
(UNMIN) for the supervision of PLA fighters, but to focus their
efforts on the fighters’ reintegration and rehabilitation.  Against
Pascoe’s advice, the Special Committee, a peacebuilding body made up
of six political parties, is transferring UNMIN responsibilities to
its Secretariat, as the reintegration and rehabilitation process has
not been moving forward.

Disagreements Prevail
Nepali Times, December 2, 2010
The High Level Taskforce met recently to discuss fundamental issues
but failed to reach any agreement.  The Maoists held that they cannot
accept plurality at any cost, while the Nepali Congress and the
Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist insisted that
plurality is essential for the development of society.  The name of
the constitution was also at issue, as the Maoists preferred the
“People’s Federal Republic Constitution” while the other parties
wanted “Federal Republic Constitution.”  The taskforce also discussed
fundamental rights, land ownership, and compulsory military training.

UN HQ Will Monitor Nepal Peace Process From New York: Pascoe Tells Media
Telegraph Nepal, December 5, 2010
UN Under Secretary General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe
announced that the UN will continue to monitor the Nepali peace
process from its New York headquarters after UNMIN leaves next
January.  UNMIN is set to leave Nepal despite the fact that the peace
process and the drafting of a new constitution remaining incomplete.

Somaliland

Somalia: Somaliland Police Arrest Editor Who Supported Former President Riyale
Garowe, November 29, 2010
Mohamoud Abdi Huto, editor of the Waheen newspaper, was detained by
police and taken to a jail in Hargesia.  Huto has reportedly spent two
nights in jail.  Somaliland officials have not publicly commented on
the issue.  The Waheen supported former President Dahir Riyale’s
re-election bid this past summer, which he lost to current President
Ahmed Silanyo.

Sudan: Darfur

Status of Darfur Region Is Only Obstacle to Peace Accord – Qatari Minister
Sudan Tribune, November 28, 2010
According to Ahmed bin Abdullah Al-Mahmoud, Qatar state minister for
foreign affairs, the creation of one administrative entity in Darfur
remains a non-negotiable demand of all rebel movements.  The Sudanese
government rejected the demand, insisting that Darfurians can decide
on the issue by referendum at the end of the transitional period, as
was agreed in the 2005 Darfur Peace Agreement.

Sudan: 2 Killed During Darfur Protest
Associated Press, December 2, 2010
At least two people were killed and several wounded in Zalingei, West
Darfur, when Sudanese police fired shots into the air to disperse a
crowd of students who had begun throwing stones at the mediation
team’s security envoy.  The Sudanese police accused supporters of
Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) leader Abdel Wahid Al-Nur of
intentionally stirring trouble.  UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has
called for a full investigation.

SLM – Minnawi No Longer a Peace Partner: Sudan Army
Sudan Tribune, December 4, 2010
On December 4, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) announced that Minni
Minnawi’s SLM militias are now legitimate military targets.  The SAF
claimed that a large portion of Minnawi’s forces have moved from the
areas assigned to them under the 2005 Darfur Peace Agreement toward
the south with weapons and vehicles and intent on rejoining their
former rebel allies.  The SLM rejected the allegations, saying that
the troop movements are purely administrative.

Sudan: Southern Sudan

South Sudan Rejects Referendum Postponement, Warns Egypt Over “Interference”
Sudan Tribune, December 4, 2010
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Deputy Secretary
General, Anne Itto Leonard, rejected the possibility of delaying the
January referendum by three weeks.  Leonard’s rejection was made in
response to reports that Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil, the Chairperson of
the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission, would request the extension
this week.  The Deputy Secretary General also reminded Egypt to
cooperate with Southern Sudan after leaked cables from the U.S.
Embassy in Cairo indicated that the Egyptian government had tried to
lobby the U.S. government to delay the referendum by four to six
years.  Egyptian officials fear that Southern Sudan’s possible
secession could create regional instability and that an independent
Southern Sudan could side with other riparian states to fight for a
larger share of the Nile’s water.

Sudan Referendum ‘To Go Ahead on Time’
AFP, December 4, 2010
Southern Sudan Referendum Commission Chairperson Mohammed Ibrahim
Khalil confirmed that the referendum would take place on time despite
delays in the printing of ballots and the extension of the
registration period to December 8.  Khalil refused to comment on
reports that the Commission sent a confidential note to the Presidency
requesting an extension.

Sudan Referendum: Voters Bribed to Stay Away from Registering
Daily Monitor, December 5, 2010
Both the National Congress Party (NCP) and the SPLM lodged complaints
with the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission over alleged misconduct
in the run up to the referendum.  The SPLM alleged that the NCP is
bribing voters in the North with up to $600 not to register to vote.
The NCP responded by accusing Southern Sudan of registration
irregularities, claiming that citizens as young as twelve years old
have been made to register and participate in the voting exercise.

Tanzania

Kikwete Warns of Hard Times Ahead
The Citizen, December 2, 2010
At an East African Community (EAC) leaders’ meeting on Food Security
and Climate Change, Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete warned of hard
times to come given the region’s dependence on seasonal rains for
agriculture and the erratic nature of the region’s rainfall.  The EAC
leaders agreed that the region could produce sufficient food for its
people through better resource management and the use of modern
irrigation technology.

EAC Enters New Era to Deepen Integration
Xinhua, December 3, 2010
Leaders at the 12th Ordinary Summit of Heads of State of the EAC
adopted a progress report from the EAC’s Council of Ministers.  The
organization’s leaders pledged to deepen integration by building an
effective EAC institution in Arusha and raising awareness.  Partner
states signed a binding protocol to cooperate on foreign and
development policies.

CCM Poll Loser Calls for Annulment of Ubungo Results, Dar es Salaam
The Citizen, December 4, 2010
The defeated Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) candidate for the Ubungo
constituency, Hawa Ng’humbi, has petitioned the High Court to cancel
the election results of the constituency.  Ng’humbi alleged voter
intimidation and other irregularities in the process, also claiming
that her opponent provided unauthorized laptop computers for vote
counting in place of those supplied by the National Electoral
Commission.  Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) candidate
John Mnyika was declared the winner in the disputed race.

Uganda

Landmines Stop Thousands Returning Home
IRIN, December 1, 2010
Residents of Agoro sub-county in Lamwo who were displaced by the
conflict in northern Uganda have not been able to return to their
homes because of landmines that may still be located in their
communities.  Although demining teams have been working in parts of
northern Uganda and have a deadline of 2012 to clear all existing
minefields in resettlement areas, the slow pace of the operations has
prevented the teams from reaching certain areas and declaring them
safe for displaced persons to return.  The Ugandan Minister of
Disaster Preparedness pledged to provide additional resources to
increase the capacity of the demining teams to clear the areas more
efficiently.

Why Obama’s Pacification Plan Against the LRA Is Bound to Fail
Daily Nation, December 2, 2010
Reporter Zachary Ochieng argued that the Obama administration’s
strategy for the implementation of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)
Disarmament and Northern Uganda Recovery Act 2009, passed by the
United States (U.S.) Congress in May 2010, will be unsuccessful.
Ochieng asserted that religious, cultural, and political leaders of
northern Uganda have rebuffed the plan, in part because of its failure
to address the underlying socioeconomic and political causes of the
conflict.  If U.S. assistance leads to the capture of Joseph Kony, the
leader of the LRA, Ochieng believes that all of Uganda “will be
engulfed in unrest.”  The result may be a realignment of the political
and military leadership of the LRA and the resurgence of rebel
activities.

Transitioning to Peace: A Population-Based Survey on Attitudes About Social Reconstruction and Justice in Northern Uganda
Relief Web, December 5, 2010
The Human Rights Center at the University of California, Berkeley,
released a report presenting the results of a large population-based
survey on peace, justice, and social reconstruction in northern
Uganda.  The survey, which is based on interviews with 2,498 adults in
the Acholi districts of Amuru, Gulu, Kitgum, and Pader, attempted to
gather and summarize community views within the districts.  Unlike
prior surveys, the Human Rights Center’s survey indicated that the
priorities of the Acholi community have shifted toward basic needs
such as food, education, and healthcare.

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe Police Commissioner Says Only Mugabe Election Win Acceptable
Voice of America, December 1, 2010
Police Commissioner General Augustine Chihuri, who is aligned with the
ZANU-PF party, declared that the 2011 election results will be
accepted only if President Robert Mugabe is the winner.
Constitutional Affairs Minister Eric Matinenga, a member of the
Movement for Democratic Change, called the statement treasonous.
Other officials warned that such comments from the Police Commissioner
General could encourage lawlessness.

Zimbabwe Needs $415 Million in Food Aid
AFP, December 2, 2010
The UN has appealed for $415 million to feed almost two million
Zimbabweans facing malnutrition.  An estimated 1.7 million Zimbabweans
will face severe food insecurity from January through March 2011, the
peak hunger period.  One in every three children in Zimbabwe is
chronically malnourished, and hunger contributes to nearly twelve
thousand child deaths each year.  Zimbabwe has experienced a decade of
acute food shortages brought on by drought and President Mugabe’s land
reforms, which crippled farm production.

Mugabe Not Happy in Zimbabwe Unity Government
AFP, December 5, 2010
President Mugabe announced that he is not happy being in a
power-sharing government with political challenger Morgan Tsvangirai.
Mugabe claimed that his legal education causes him to be discontented
with a semi-legal government that does not derive its power from a
constitution but from a makeshift arrangement formed in the wake of
the 2008 election violence.  The completion of the ongoing
constitution drafting process has been prevented repeatedly by
violence at public meetings.

Peace Negotiations Watch is a weekly publication detailing current
events relating to conflict and peace processes in selected countries.
It is prepared by the Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG)
and made possible by grants from the Carnegie Corporation of New York
and the Ploughshares Fund.

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