By Sarah Lafen

Impunity Watch Desk Reporter, Europe

LONDON, England — Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU) is likely to signal a massive influx of immigration into the country from other European Nations as well as from countries around the world.  Negotiations regarding Brexit are expected to take at least two years.

Until those negotiations are final and Britain formally withdraws from the EU, Britain is obligated to continue to grant access to any EU citizen who wishes to enter the country.  An estimated 500,000 Eastern Europeans are predicted to migrate into Britain within the next two years, before Britain’s borders close.  Chris Grayling, a senior minister on the Leave side of the government, predicts Britain will take some action to restrict a huge influx of migrants prior to Britain’s official withdrawal if necessary, however states that doing so would break EU rules of free movement between the countries.

Trade between Britain and EU countries will play a major role in the maintenance, decrease, or increase of immigration into Britain post-Brexit.  If Britain chooses to maintain free trade with the EU, they can remain in the European Economic Area (EEA).  By remaining in the EEA, Britain would have to keep free movement of labor, which would have little effect on the country’s economic and immigration levels.  If Britain chooses to leave the EEA, other EU nations might feel “scorned” by Britain’s departure, and could demand the imposition of certain immigration policies in return for free trade with Britain.  Britain may choose not to remain in the EEA, however, since one of the platforms of the Leave campaign includes the goal of regaining control over immigration into the country.  The Leave campaign maintains their stance on immigration control despite research which has shown that immigration into Britain has helped bolster the country’s economy.

Some predict that Britain will pursue a more selective immigration process once their exit from the EU is complete.  Such a system might mirror that which is currently used in Canada and Australia – a point-based system which invites skilled migration into the country.  This system puts a cap on how many people are admitted into the country per profession.  Britain currently uses a point system to grant visas to non-EU immigrants, however it is unclear whether or not that system will change in light of Brexit.

EU citizens who are currently residing in Britain will be allowed to remain in Britain indefinitely.

For more information, please see:

NY Times — A Lesson From ‘Brexit’: On Immigration, Feelings Trump Facts — 26 June 2016

Mirror — Brexit to Cause Immigration Surge as 500,000 Eastern Europeans ‘Will Rush in Before Borders Close’ — 25 June 2016

Financial Times — What Will Brexit Mean for Immigration? — 24 June 2016

The Daily Signal — How Immigration Fueled the Brexit Result — 23 June 2016

CNN — Brexit: What Will Immigration Look Like if Britain Leaves the EU? — 20 June 2016

By Sarah Lafen

Impunity Watch Desk Reporter, Europe

WARSAW, Poland — On Friday, the Northern Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) wrapped up a 10-day training exercise simulating a Russian attack on Poland.  NATO sent over 30,000 troops, military vehicles, aircraft, and ships from over 20 countries to the military base in Wederzyn, Poland to take part in military drills and exercises.  This joint-military effort is the largest since the end of the Cold War, and is a part of Anakonda 2016 – a Polish national exercise which seeks to train national forces into an allied, multinational environment.

American units, as well as non-NATO forces such as Sweden and Finland, participated in the training drills in Poland.  Drills included collaborative helicopter attacks which included communications between Polish pilots and American air traffic controllers, hiking through dense forests, clearing houses room-by-room, and live fire drills.  The goal of these training exercises was to train Poland, along with other Eastern-European forces which used to be allied with the Soviet, to work together with the United States and Western European troops.

Many view the joint-military effort as one of prudent preparation.  Polish Defense Minister Antoni Maciarewicz states that they now feel prepared for “the worst” and for “any bad eventualities.”  Evelyn Farkas of the Atlantic Counsel characterized this joint-military effort as one which will send a message to Russia that NATO is prepared to respond if Russia attempts to “step…into one of our allied countries.”  NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said the alliance has maintained communication with Russia throughout Anakonda 2016, however “practical cooperation” has been suspended since the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Some leaders view the preparation and training as dangerous.  John Mearsheimer, a University of Chicago political scientist who specializes in European security issues, calls the training a dangerous “poke at the Russian bear,” and thinks it will be perceived by Russia as a threat which will give them more motivation to invade the Baltic States.   German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeir categorized the NATO training as “counterproductive to regional security,” and instead urged NATO to replace the training drills with more cooperation with Russia.

Russia has also spoken out against Anakonda 2016.  Vladimir Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters that the “war games” of Anakonda 2016 “do not contribute to the atmosphere of trust and safety on the continent.”

For more information, please see:

NBC — Huge NATO Drills in Poland Prepare West for Possible Conflict with Russia — 19 June 2016

BBC — German Minister Warns NATO Against ‘Warmongering’ — 18 June 2016

NPR — NATO War Games in Poland Get Russia’s Attention — 17 June 2016

U.S. Army Europe — What is Anakonda?