By Kyle Herda
Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe
EDINBURGH, Scotland – On Thursday September 18, Scotland will vote for whether to remain a part of the United Kingdom or separate and declare independence. Regardless of the outcome, the results will have a heavy impact throughout Europe.
If Scotland’s vote for independence results in a vote to stay with the United Kingdom, Scotland will still receive some new benefits, in addition to keeping some old benefits. Britain has promised that in the event of a vote to remain in the UK, Britain would decentralize some power to Scotland. It is entirely possible that Northern Ireland and Wales could also receive similar benefits should Scotland remain united.
The political impact this vote in Britain could be huge, as Scotland has been united with England for 307 years. The loss of Scotland would be disastrous to British Prime Minister David Cameron and would make him appear weak and reckless to the British people for allowing Scotland to leave. Even if Scotland stays, to give Scotland more power and possibly have to give Wales and Northern Ireland more power would have a similar effect. Either way, England’s next elections will focus greatly on this event.
In addition to decentralized powers, Scotland would also continue receiving benefits from the rest of the UK, including, and likely most importantly, European Union membership and use of the euro currency. Should Scotland vote ‘yes’ for independence, Scotland would likely be promptly left outside of the EU and without a currency. While such a scenario would likely be followed with steps on how to apply for EU membership, it would entail time where Scotland is on its own to effectively establish a military and currency, two issues that are no small feat.
An independent Scotland would put the EU into a tough position, as the UK is already one of the more powerful economies in the world and would be weakening some. This move would also cause problems within other member States, as it would encourage independence referendums throughout Europe. Particularly, Italy’s Northern League, Flemish separatists in Belgium, and the Catalans and Basques in Spain would pose an immediate threat to the independence of those nations. The Catalans pose a particularly significant risk that Spain is worried may pan out should Scotland succeed in their movement.
This same threat is also felt in Eastern Europe in nations such as Latvia or Ukraine, where Russian-ethnic citizens could push for independence referendums, perhaps even backed by Russia who has shown it is willing to act militarily to support such movements.
As with most major decisions, while the act itself of Scotland separating from the UK may appear to be a good idea, it could have serious and unplanned impacts that may lead to major changes throughout Europe on the whole, with results that are impossible to foresee. For now, the only thing left to do is wait for Scotland’s vote on Thursday.
For more information, please see:
Daily Times – Europe changing shape whichever way Scotland goes – 15 September 2014
Business Insider – Europe fears Scottish independence contagion – 14 September 2014
The Independent – Scotland independence vote: Everything you ever wanted to know about life after the result – 14 September 2014
The New York Times – Scottish Independence Would Ripple Through Europe – 11 September 2014
