Syrian Revolution Digest – Friday, 4 January 2013

By Any Other Name!

Revolution, civil war, proxy war — they are all terms that denote transformation, heaven knows we needed it. The challenge ahead of us now is to remain vigilant and to keep learning, not just fighting. For whatever the immediate outcome of all these goings-on might be, it will not mark the end of the road, but a solitary milestone telling us what we still need to do to get where we want.  

Today’s Death Toll: 170 (including 14 children and 10 women)
74 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its Suburbs (20 of them in Douma), 26 martyrs in Idlib (7 of them in Qmeinas), 21 martyrs in Aleppo, 16 martyrs in Daraa, 12 martyrs in Homs, 10 martyrs in Deir Ezzor, 7 martyrs in Hama and 6 martyrs in Raqqa.
Points of Random Shelling: 303
21 points were shelled by warplane, 5 points by barrel bombs, 3 points by Thermobaric bombs and 2 points by Cluster bombs. The mortar shelling was reported in 115 points, the artillery shelling in 126 points and the missile shelling in 30 points (LCCs).
Clashes: FSA rebels clashed with the regime forces in 143 locations and downed 4 warplanes today: 2 fighter jets in Aleppo Suburbs, 1 MiG in Deir Ezzor and 1 Helicopter in Taftanaz. The FSA gained control of 70% of Taftanaz Military Airport and killed the leader of the airport and the leader of communications. In Jabal Al-Zawiya, FSA rebels liberated Baidar checkpoint in the town of Rami and captured all the vehicles and ammunitions, they also gained control of Madjana Haboush checkpoint. In Zakiya in Damascus Suburbs, the FSA forced the Air Defense Battalion belonging to the regime forces to retreat from Abassiya area completely, and blocked at attempt by the regime forces to storm Dariya from the southern side. In Raqqa the FSA was able to control the Safeeh Oil Field arresting 15 soldiers and 2 officers in the process. FSA rebels also tried but failed to down a warplane that was shelling the area (LCCs).
News
Special Reports
Where are the demonstrations? The shocking disclosure that Syria’s civil war has claimed at least 60,000 lives has brought precious little reaction. To place this in context, President Bashar al-Assad’s murderous struggle to keep his stranglehold on power has now killed more people than any of the Arab-Israeli wars. Not one of those conflicts, going back to and including 1948, was remotely as bloody as the conflagration in Syria. The nearest comparison is the Six Day War of 1967, which killed 23,500 Arabs and 1,000 Israelis – barely a third of the death toll in today’s Syria.
Those grim assessments by U.N. officials are clearly intended to spur international stakeholders to act more urgently to end the conflict.
Rami Jarrah, a Syrian anti-regime activist now living in Cairo, is launching Syria’s first non-state-run news outlet to provide something he sees as sorely missing: objective reporting.
The Benetech report is only a reflection of available data — not a projection, estimate or demographic study. But there is information in the actual dataset itself that points towards a higher — and maybe even much higher — number of dead.
Though the humanitarian stakes are high, the European Union (France at the forefront) and the U.S. have chosen their allies and continue to defend geostrategic and economic interests by pushing for the fall of the Syrian regime. To pursue this objective, the political discourse is idealistic and focuses on the massacres and humanitarian issues while national interests are real, but not mentioned.
However, from a realistic point of view, the conflict can be viewed as a broader struggle between mainly Russia and Western countries which attempt to advance their national interests. For the West these interests are isolating Iran and bolstering the strategic and economic alliance with Arab allies like Qatar, which invests in Europe and offers an alternative to Russian gas.
This is an excellent analysis of why the conflict in Syria metastasized into a proxy war pitting Russia and Iran on one side, and U.S. and Europe on the other. By now, the reality of this development and the factors contributing to it are simply hard to deny.
Some would even like to argue that the entire conflict in Syria, not to mention the entire Arab Spring phenomenon, were indeed instigated as a reflection of an ongoing geopolitical alignment seeking to isolate Iran, support Gulf allies, and secure future natural gas pipelines. The problem with such analysis is that it simply ignores the genuine democratic aspirations involved on part of revolutionaries and the objective factors that paved the way to the revolutions: authoritarianism, corruption, the youth bulge, and the breakdown of the middle class as a result of introduction of neoliberal economic policies coupled with lack social safety nets and lack of economic opportunity. The Arab Spring and the Syrian Revolution are genuine indigenous phenomena which are now being coopted by a combination of external and domestic players with their own particular agendas. In Syria, the situation has indeed (d)evolved into a proxy war pitting Russia and Iran against the United States and Europe, involving the issues highlighted earlier.
Another thing we should bear in mind while reading this article is that the author, Milad Jokar, had previously made a similar argument and reached a conclusion that was a bit too facile in my view.
Earlier this summer, Vali Nasr, former special adviser to the White House and now Dean of the SAIS of Johns Hopkins University explained on Australia Network News that “the rebels are not democrats, they are too fractured. This is an uprising that is becoming increasingly bloody. It is now essentially a sectarian war between a minority Alawite regime and its Christian and Kurdish allies, and the majority Sunnis”.
Nasr already argued that the conflict “is no longer about democracy, and a liberal democracy does not emerge in these kinds of circumstances of violence and fratricide.”
He compares a possible fall of Assad to the situation of Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2005 where “very quickly al Qaeda began to recruit among Iraqis and then sent Saudis, Egyptians, Syrians to come to Iraq to serve as suicide bombers and take over territories and confront U.S. forces and they became a major muscle within the insurgency”.
Today, we can clearly see this picture in Syria and the current situation confirms the words of Nasr, who warned months ago, “the more the control of the Assad regime erodes, the more you are going to have opportunities in which varieties of forms of illegal activities, from drug lords to criminal to mafia types and to al Qaeda, begin to finding the ability to taking over towns, villages and neighborhoods to operate at will because there is not going to be any police or military to push them out.”
What is happening in Syria is no longer about a democratic movement against a dictatorship, nor is it simply a civil war between two camps. Syria has become the theater of a proxy war which is spilling over to its neighbors. Consequently, to focus only on the departure of President Bashar al Assad is a strategy doomed to failure because it will not solve the conflict. The crisis is spreading far beyond the person of Bashar al Assad. Demanding the departure of the dictator can only be viewed as an attempt to advance the West’s geostrategic and economic interests, namely isolating Iran, securing Western energy supply policies and competing with Russia, and bolstering Arab Gulf allies; what it will not achieve is a lasting ceasefire to stop the bloodshed and a transition to a brighter political future for the Syrian people.
The last paragraph in particular is quite telling: Assad’s departure serves the West’s interests and is not conducive to a lasting ceasefire or a transition to democracy.
By the same logic, however, we can argue that keeping Assad serves Russia’s interests and is equally unhelpful when it comes to achieving a lasting ceasefire, or any ceasefire for that matter, not to mention facilitating transition to democracy. So, the author did not follow his own logic to its own logical conclusion and was unable to say that irrespective of Assad’s fate, no lasting ceasefire or a transition towards democracy is likely at this stage, thanks to this ongoing proxy war. As such, what we have to look forward to in the near future is civil strife and state failure. Both Russia and the West might be willing to live with this outcome for a while, albeit, Russia and Iran might be the ones hurt by it the most. The West might end up wiggling out a victory of some sorts in time, at which point we have to hope that the state can still be put back together, a development that cannot logically happen with Assad and his top aides on board. We simply cannot ignore the element of psychopathy involved in their case. But this development cannot happen unless a highly decentralized vision for administering the country is adopted by all parties. It’s this decentralized vision that might give minority groups a way to decouple themselves from Assad without fearing for their existence.
Be that as it may, the final outcome relies heavily on the nature of unfolding developments on the ground. Surprises can still happen that could twist things around.
Video Highlights
Many activists on the ground are still confusing incendiary cluster bombs with white phosphorous bombs, I did for a while as well. But experts who reviewed this video among others have confirmed that these are white incendiary cluster bombs, treatment for wounds resulting from such bombs is quite different from those resulting from use of white phosphorous. We have alerted many activists to this, and we hope to mount an awareness raising campaign in this regard as well, not that treatment is readily available. This video was taking in Jobar, Homs City where pro-Assad militias have intensified their attacks on restive neighborhood in order to drive out rebels and take full control of the cityhttp://youtu.be/rWWeO4ewnts Nearby village of Eastern Bouaydah was also pounded with cluster bombs http://youtu.be/SqQ1bb6zFKI
A leaked video shows loyalist militias abusing the dead bodies of rebelshttp://youtu.be/Qa2WuMQTp7c
This video reportage by Al-Arabiya shows how Syrian regime media fabricate lies about the rebels. In this part of this video, we see a girl with her face blurred claiming that she has been kidnapped and raped by rebels in the Damascene suburb of Harasta. In the second part, we see clips smuggled by a defector showing the same girl as she rehearsed her parts, giggling, making mistakes and is being corrected by her handlers http://youtu.be/zlyUTBtRq_8
Scud missiles are now being used more regularly in pounding rebel strongholds. This particular missile was fired from Al-Hisheh military base near Tartous City, the target: the Hama countryside http://youtu.be/C69xUPCcQOg
Shelling leaves many dead in Eastern Ghouta, Damascus Suburbs, especially inDouma http://youtu.be/VcRr-1ofV4c , http://youtu.be/qLUmdfFfabY A martyred child http://youtu.be/7qu2wMQIInY Arbeen http://youtu.be/6ZDv-lAZVNE Putting out a fire http://youtu.be/i6-k2RdoM1s And the pounding continued: Hamouriyehhttp://youtu.be/eu-Jfne3Mdk , http://youtu.be/QtxF15DSjP8 ,http://youtu.be/AUGyf012otk Saqba http://youtu.be/nwg4zlpQLVo
In Idlib, the shelling of the town of Qmeinas left many deadhttp://youtu.be/RBslSnKe7jY
Rebels laying siege to Manag Airport, Aleppo http://youtu.be/fuUyvqGndx0 ,http://youtu.be/8zAh1uJTeIA , http://youtu.be/rWV4quacW-Y
Clashes in Aleppo City http://youtu.be/Yy9F4mmFdZc

One Investigator Kidnapped, While Other Security Official Found Dead in Libya

By Justin Dorman
Impunity Watch Reporter, Middle East

TRIPOLI, Libya – Ever since Muammar Gaddafi had been overthrown, safety officials have not been safe in Benghazi, as more than a dozen have been killed. The two most recent men to feel the effects of such danger are Chief-Captain Abdel-Salam al-Mahdawi and Lieutenant-Colonel Nasser al-Magrabi.

Police officers congregate to demand the release of their Captain Mahdawi. (Photo Courtesy of Saudi Gazette)

Mahdawi was the acting head of the criminal investigation department in Benghazi. It is believed that after leaving his farm to go to work, he was abducted at gunpoint by bearded men at a traffic light on Venezia Street not far from the criminal investigation police offices.

Mahdawi was known to have “many enemies,” stated an unnamed official who claimed that Mahdawi, “had files on everyone – Gaddafi loyalists, hard-line Islamists and common criminals.”

A small group of police officers staged a demonstration outside of Benghazi’s landmark, the Tibesti Hotel, calling for Mahdawi’s release. Officers held banners asking, “Where are the men of Benghazi?”

One man’s body was found charred by hydrochloric acid in Benghazi’s Buhmeida district. Officials have not yet been able to confirm or deny whether or not the charred body is what remains of Captain Mahdawi.

Interior Minister Ashour Shwayel has promised to “search for the officer [Mahdawi] and determine the identity of the perpetrators.” Nevertheless, legal experts and police investigators have kept their distance from the unidentified body charred by hydrochloric acid for fear that they have not been granted protection from the groups they believe to be the perpetrators of the attack.

One body that was found and identified was that of Lieutenant-Colonel Nasser al-Magrabi. Magrabi was a Gaddafi era security official who was part of the internal security services in Benghazi. His dead body was found shot, on his farm somewhere in the Sidi Faraj region.

No one is certain as to who are carrying out these attacks, however, some believe the acts to be conducted by hard-line Islamists who wish to punish those officials who formerly served under Gaddafi. Magrabi’s security services were responsible for detaining thousands of Islamists and other dissidents during the time that Gaddafi’s regime was in power.

Benghazi has also become a hot spot for other extremist groups to flourish, like those militants who attacked the U.S. Consulate and killed U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three others this past September 11th.

For further information, please see:

Gulf Today – Qadhafi-era Security Officer Killed in Libya: Officials – 5 January 2013

Saudi Gazette – Top cop Kidnapped in Benghazi – 4 January 2013

BBC – Libyan Gunmen Kidnap top Investigator in Benghazi – 3 January 2013

New York Times – Police Captain in Benghazi is Abducted – 3 January 2013

Protestors Arrested During Rally for the Freedom to Assemble

By Alexandra Sandacz
Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

MOSCOW, Russia – Russian police detained Eduard Limonov, leader of the Other Russia opposition movement, and various other activists during a protest to defend the right to assemble.  Article 31 of the Russian Constitution protects the right to assemble; however, officials frequently deny the necessary permits.

Russian police arrest opposition leader Eduard Limonov in Moscow during a rally to protect the right to assembly. (Photo Courtesy of RFE/RL)

Police arrested Limonov when he addressed journalists in Moscow’s Triumph Square. The Strategy 31 Movement organizes protests on the last day of every month that has 31 days to demonstrate the suppression of free assembly under President Vladimir Putin’s government.

As near by Muscovites watched, demonstrators in the capital’s main street chanted, “Russia without Putin!” and slogans calling for the right to free assembly. The protest in Triumfalnaya Square gathered 50 to 100 people. Opposition activists reported that the riot police arrested at least 28 people.

Putin passed a law in 2012 that increased fines for organizers and protesters deemed to have violated the assembly rules. As a response, Putin’s critics believe the recent laws are merely an attack on those who do not agree with the President’s views as he returned for a six-year term in May.

In his New Year’s Eve address, Putin did not address the protests that took place in the past year. He instead stated, “We believe that we can change the life around us and become better ourselves, that we can become more heedful, compassionate, gracious.” He added that Russia’s fate “depends on our enthusiasm and labor”.

On January 1, the Interior Ministry stated that all protesters arrested during the Moscow’s year-end rally for the freedom of assembly were released.

For further information, please see:

UPI – Moscow protesters arrested, released – 1 January 2013

The Guardian – Russian police arrest opposition activists at New Year’s Eve protest – 31 December 2012

Reuters — Russian activists detained at protest for free assembly – 31 December 2012

RFE/RL – Activists Detained At Russian Protests For Free Assembly – 31 December 2012

Syrian Revolution Digest – Wednesday, 2 January 2013

The Shocking Truth!

The writing was on the wall, and we all refused to see it. Assad had no intention of going gently into that good night, yet he was given all the leeway he needed to transform his crisis into a quagmire with regional, even international implications. Dealing with psychopaths like Assad is never easy, but that’s no excuse for indifference and inaction, nor is the fact that this tragedy is unfolding in some far away country. Distances have lost their relevance in our world, it’s about time our policymaking reflected this reality. Mass murder, ethnic cleansing, tyranny are no longer local concerns with local implications: they are global problems with global implications, and world leaders have sat on their hands for too long in regard to the Syrian crisis, this is unconscionable and inexcusable. Irrespective of the geopolitics involved, this tragic chapter in our contemporary history needs to be brought to a proper end, and the criminals involved need to be held accountable. 

Today’s Death Toll: 207 (including 6 women and 8 children)
141 in Damascus and suburbs including 47 in Mleiha, 32 in Mouadamieh and 8 in Deir Al-Asafeer; 17 in Aleppo; 14 in Daraa; 15 in Idlib; 7 in Hama; 5 in Homs; 4 in Deir Ezzor; 2 in Raqqa; and 2 in Sweida.
Points of Random Shelling: 257
14 areas were subjected to aerial shelling mainly in Damascus Suburbs. Barrel bombing was confirmed in 5 areas, and Mouadamieh was subjected to cluster bombs. Thermobaric bombing was documented in one area in Mleiha. 117 locations were subjected to artillery shelling, 72 locations to mortar shelling, and 68 to missile attacks.
Clashes:  The Free Syrian Army (FSA) clashed with regime forces in 125 locations, with the fiercest clashes taking place in Damascus Suburbs and Idlib Province. In Hama, the FSA was able to control parts of Taftanaz Military Airport, downed an attack helicopter in Taftanaz, and another in Afas. In addition, the FSA attacked the military airport in Thaala in Sweida and repelled regime attempts to storm Basr Al-Harir. The FSA seized control of the checkpoint in western Nahia in Sheikh Miskeen, and repelled regime attempts to storm the village of Al-Saan in Homs (LCCs).
News
Special Reports
Few Syrians interviewed in Aleppo believe that a brand of Islam like that practiced by Jabhat al-Nusra can survive in Syria. But any regime that succeeds Assad is likely to be Islamic in nature, some say. “We want a regime that applies sharia law, but that is fair and just,” says Abu Mohammad, a Free Syrian Army commander in Aleppo and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. “Many Muslims believe that if we apply the true Islam, we can use it to get rid of corruption and problems like bribery,” he says.
The civil war’s threat to Damascus The spirit of Syria’s capital lies in its diverse people and exquisite buildings. Both are in great peril
In addition to our shared humanity, what’s at stake for America is that due to the world’s inaction, the rebel movement is now contaminated by al-Qaida and other Islamist forces – all of whom have enthusiastically filled the vacuum that we have chosen to ignore. In short, we overlook Syria at our own peril. At best, the situation there can now be deemed a civil war; at worst, a petri dish where extremism will be grown for a generation.
After almost two years of bloodletting in Syria, there is little chance that negotiations of the kind UN peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has been urging would end the conflict. More likely, they would prolong it. And worse, they would perpetuate Bashar al-Assad’s favorite strategy of fanning fears of rebel sectarianism and extremism to dissuade the world from intervening against him.
“Given there has been no let-up in the conflict since the end of November, we can assume that more than 60,000 people have been killed by the beginning of 2013,” Pillay said. “The number of casualties is much higher than we expected, and istruly shocking.” … The analysts noted that 60,000 is likely to be an underestimate of the actual number of deaths, given that reports containing insufficient information were excluded from the list, and that a significant number of killings may not have been documented at all by any of the seven sources. The recording and collection of accurate and reliable data has grown increasingly challenging due to the conflict raging in many parts of the country.
Indeed, the revision does not come as a surprise to me, I have long said that the official casualty figures fail to give an accurate impression of the what’s really taking place in Syria: most of those believed missing or detained are probably dead, this is what previous experiences with the regime tell us. Also, activists on the ground are having a hard time keeping up with the all the violent developments taking place.
Also, the figures we have do not include regime casualties. Many of the soldiers fighting for the regime have no choice in the matter: they were lied to, manipulated and/or coerced, and when some try to defect, they are often killed on the spot by loyalist officers. In many ways, they are victims as well.
Personally, I believe that we have long exceeded the 100,000 mark in terms of casualties. A comparative perspective informs us that official figures are usually off by a factor of three. We will not know the truth of it all until the end of the conflict which may not happen anytime soon.
Video Highlights
The Massacre at Mleiha, Damascus Suburbs: a runor was spread earlier in the day that the local as station finally had some gas. Indeed, Syrian TV came and covered parts of the distribution process, but as soon as the TV crew left, an aerial raid took place and the gas station was bombed, killing around 50 locals.
Rushing to the scene http://youtu.be/tKi-JI20zzI Pulling bodies from under the rubble http://youtu.be/lxLgWylKQQU The martyrs http://youtu.be/ikApkegbqQ0Human remains http://youtu.be/eY8xWPl5BEQ Nearby residential buildings were also targeted http://youtu.be/LHlhtEZkayc
The nearby communities of Eastern Ghoutah were also targeted: Douma http://youtu.be/jl7kvN7pTtI , http://youtu.be/tdWWir04D-I Deir Al-Assafir http://youtu.be/5rM5g6uD3Qg , http://youtu.be/6KBTou6WcH8 Arbeen http://youtu.be/PKJ9kq9Ws0A
Several neighborhoods in Damascus City itself were also pounded: Mazzeh http://youtu.be/mBwbiuA1LLg
To the south, local sift through the rubble in search bodies in the town of Mouadamiyeh http://youtu.be/fdih2E9jxMw
In Idlib, helicopter gunships took part in shelling the town of Taftanaz http://youtu.be/e2iFC7o2FCY , http://youtu.be/MCPL7WDMKgo , http://youtu.be/Ys8pxUFvOYw In Binnish, local rush to pull out the bodies from under the rubble in the aftermath of an aerial raid http://youtu.be/QCeGOroTWX0
Fighter jets took part in pounding the town of Basr Al-Harir in Daraa http://youtu.be/4B5n0vnaOPQ
In Homs City, the aftermath of aerial raid on Old Homs, one of the oldest towns in the world http://youtu.be/i5WXHONBUP0

Car Bombs Attack Shiite Pilgrims, Ignite Tensions in Iraq

By Emily Schneider
Impunity Watch Reporter, Middle East

BAGHDAD, Iraq – Shia pilgrims were targeted by a car bomb yesterday, resulting in twenty deaths. Many Shiite Muslims made the pilgrimage to the holy city of Karbala, about 100km southwest of Baghdad, to celebrate the festival of Arbaeen.

Thousands of Shia Muslims have been attending a religious festival in Karbala, Iraq. (Photo courtesy of BBC)

Millions of pilgrims have visited Karbala to mark an anniversary associated with the revered Shia figure, Imam Hussein. Provincial governor, Amal al-Din al-Har, quoted by AFP, said that the festival drew around 750,000 pilgrims from 30 different countries.

The most recent spate of attacks is reinforcing fears that sectarian violence is increasing. In the past, Shiite pilgrims were targeted by Sunni militants during religious festivals.  Zaid Mohammed, a 21-year old student, walked to Karbala from a nearby city to celebrate the festival in spite of these fears.

“All the people came here to show their gratitude and appreciation for the sacrifices made by Imam Hussein while fighting injustice,” he said. “We have decided to confront all the security risks that we might face on our way to Karbala.”

As pilgrims were returning from the festival in the late afternoon, a car bomb exploded in the small town of Musayyib, about 60 kilometers south of Baghdad. This is the second explosion this week. The first blast occurred this past Monday in the town of Musayyib. That blast killed seven people.

The bomb went off near a bus stop frequented by pilgrims from Karbala taking them to other Iraqi cities, police told BBC News. There were no reports on Thursday of any group claiming responsibility for the bombing. Oftentimes, past attacks on Shia pilgrims have been blamed on Sunni militants even when they did not directly claim responsibility.

Ali Sabbar, a pilgrim who witnessed the explosion, told Reuters news agency: “I was getting a sandwich when a very strong explosion rocked the place and the blast threw me away. When I regained my senses and stood up, I saw dozens of bodies. Many cars were set on fire.”

Another witness, teacher Ibrahim Mohammed, said, “the explosion shook the whole block and smashed the windows of my house. I ran to the scene of the explosion only to find charred bodies and burning cars. There were women screaming and searching for their missing children.”

Although Iraqi authorities typically tighten security in Karbala and along routes used by pilgrims during the festival, they admit they are unable to prevent all attacks.

For more information, please see:

Al Jazeera – Shia Pilgrims Killed by Car Bomb in Iraq – 4 Jan. 2013

BBC News – Car Bomb Kills Shia Pilgrims South of Baghdad Iraq – 3 Jan. 2013

Huffington Post – Car Bomb in Iraq Kills 20 Shiite Pilgrims – 3 Jan. 2013

Washington Post – Car Bomb Targeting Shiite Pilgrims Reflects Iraq Tensions – 3 Jan. 2013