By Myriam Clerge
Impunity Watch Reporter, Eastern and Southern Africa

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia – The growing fear in the Horn of Africa is a major concern. For several months, both Ethiopia and Eritrea have accused the other of violating the 2002 border resolution which ended the 1999-2000 war that took the lives of roughly 70,000 people. The United Nation’s resolution granted the disputed town of Badme to Eritrea. The terms of the resolution required that the countries physically mark the boundary by the end of this month or the International Boundary Commission would draw it on maps themselves and let it stand.

Ethiopia claims it has accepted the terms of the agreement, although it continues to demand further talks as to its implementation.  Just weeks ago, Eritrea accused Ethiopia of plotting to invade the nation in November. Ethiopia responded by labeling the allegations as “absurd fabrication(s)”, however a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that a “war in the next several weeks is very real.”

In its report, the ICG urges the United States and the United Nations to use their influence to clarify that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated. The U.S. views Ethiopia as an ally, but has placed Eritrea on its list of states sponsoring terrorism. The UN, similarly, has expelled the Eritrea foreign staff. In this manner, Ethiopia has “played its cards right” to win U.S. toleration despite being the key player obstructing the border resolution.

The ICG estimates that Eritrea has 4,000 soldiers, supported by artillery and amour in the demilitarized zone and approximately 120,000 more troops positioned nearby. Ethiopia, although deeply involved in the Somali conflicts with Islamic insurgents and in-home clashes with the Ogaden National Liberation Front, is suspected of maintaining 100,000 troops on its border with Eritrea. The United Nations currently has 1,700 peacekeepers monitoring the buffer zone. The ICG and diplomats forecast that the November deadline may be the trigger to another war.

For more information please see:

Reuters: Africa- Ethiopia and Eritrea may go to War “in Weeks” – 5 November 2007

BBC- New Eritrea- Ethiopia War Fears – 5 November 2007

AllAfrica.com – Ethiopia: Analysts Warn of New War with Eritrea – 5 November 2007

For more information on the Border Conflict please see the following Impunity Watch reports:  BRIEF: Heightened Fear of Another War & Eritrea in a Proxy War