By Eric C. Sigmund
Impunity Watch Reporter, Middle East

RAMALLAH, West Bank – Last week’s unprecedented uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt are now fueling government opposition throughout the region.  One day after Egypt’s “March of Millions,” the increasing prospects that anti-government protests will spill over into nearby Jordan and the West Bank have led many international commentators to fear regional destabilization.  Thousands of Jordanians, encouraged by Egypt’s March of Millions, took the streets of Amman to demand governmental reforms.  In response, King Abdullah II of Jordan took steps to quell opposition forces in the country by firing his Cabinet on Tuesday.  The President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, has also promised to hold long-delayed elections in the Occupied Territories. 

Many observers in the West have approached the current situation in the region with both fear and optimism.  While the ousting of President Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and the increasingly likely resignation of President Mubarak in Egypt may pave the way for recognition of more rights and freedoms in these countries, the protests have also given some Western leaders pause as longtime allies of the United States and Europe may be replaced by leaders hostile their interests abroad.  

In addition some fear the resumption of violent conflict between Abbas’ moderate Fatah party and militant Hamas as each group vies for political supremacy.  After the most recent elections in 2006, both parties attempted to subdue the other in their respective territories, leading to security roundups and detentions of political leaders.  Now Abbas has ordered his security officials to ramp up pressure on opposition forces.  The Palestinian President publicly expressed his concern that Hamas could gain additional momentum in the wake of Egyptian protests.  He has urged that all anti-Israel demonstrations remain non-violent.  President Abbas’ Cabinet promised yesterday to set a date for municipal elects by the end of next week.  Hamas has already announced that it will not cooperate with Fatah in conducting the elections. 

Maintaining political control of the West Bank may be more difficult than initially anticipated by Abbas.  Dissatisfaction towards Abbas and his Fatah party continues to increase among Palestinians.  Young Palestinians are finding it difficult to side with either Fatah or Hamas.  Khalil Shikai, a Palestinian analyst, reported that “[t]hey feel that the West Bank is turning into a police state.”  Accordingly, rising opposition to both parties may create a power vacuum that threatens to pit disenfranchised citizens against political parties desperate to hold onto power.

In a move to appease local populations, King Abdullah instructed Jordan’s new Prime Minister, Marouf al-Bakhit, to pursue “real political reforms.”  Many Jordanians, however, have not welcomed the appointment of Mr. al-Bakhit, finding the change in leadership merely cosmetic.  Commenting on the appointment of the new Prime Minister, Hamza Mansour, leader of the Islamic Action Front (Jordan’s largest opposition movement), stated “[w]e reject the new prime minister and we will continue our protests until our demands are met.”  While opposition groups in the country contend that they do not wish to see complete regime change, they do seek to limit the power of the monarch.  In particular, opposition groups have argued that the appointment of the Prime Minister should go to the elected leader of the party holding a parliamentary majority.   While King Abdullah has promised electoral reform, he has also expressed his concern that U.S. interference count strengthen hard line Islamists.

Analysis also fear destabilization in Syria, a country which shares many similarities with Egypt.  Like Egypt, Syria suffers from high levels of poverty, unemployment and corruption.  Anti-government protests, organized by online social media websites, have already taken place over the weekend.   Syria has consistently been the target of international criticism for its poor economic and human rights record.  While protests in Syria remain mild in comparison to those held in Egypt and Tunisia, it is clear that the Syrian population sees this as a prime opportunity to ratchet up pressure on the government in Damascus. 

While no one can predict the final outcome of these popular revolutions, the situation in Africa and the Middle East will continue to be fast paced and dynamic.  Even if protests remain localized in Africa, the events which have occurred over the last two weeks are sure to change the nature of politics in the region.  The 2011 African protests will be a defining moment in the region’s history. 

For more information, please see:

Christian Science Monitor – Why Palestinians Remain So Quite as Egyptians Loudly Rail Against Mubarak – Feb. 2, 2011

Reuters Africa – Palestinians Expect A Boost From New Egypt – Feb. 2, 2011

Associated Press – Egypt Crisis Puts Pressure on US Allies in Mideast – Feb. 1, 2011

Bloomberg – Palestinians Anxious Mubarak Exit Mean More Mideast Disarray – Feb. 1, 2011