By Kyle Herda

Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

KIEV, Ukraine – Following a long period of relative rest in Eastern Ukraine, there has been another spike in reported use of heavy weapons on the frontline by both sides, in violation of the second Minsk agreement. As a result, France, Ukraine, Russia, and Germany will once again meet to try and work out a way to restore and keep peace.

The current ceasefire agreement requires both sides to pull back weapons with a caliber over 100mm from the front line. The rebels are accused of multiple incidents of 120-122mm attacks on government troops, and Kiev is accused of firing tank and artillery repeatedly at rebels. Pro-Russian senior commander Eduard Basurin claims two journalists were wounded in an attack by the government when troops fired around Pisky, near Donetsk. Kiev also claims one Ukrainian serviceman was killed and six wounded by the rebels while in the east.

One area under great risk of heavy fighting is the port city of Mariupol, which has seen scattered fighting already in the regions nearby. The city saw heavy fighting at points last year when the conflict was hot throughout the east, but has since been essentially fortified by Ukrainian troops. Mariupol’s position on the water with access to the Black Sea, as well as its position on land between rebel-held land and Russian-held Crimea, makes it a likely target for the rebels or Russia should they make a big push. Further, the 500,000 civilians within Mariupol are divided: 75 percent support Kiev, while 25 percent support separating from Ukraine. More than 1,000 Ukrainian troops have been deployed to Mariupol since last summer.

There have been over 6,000 killed in the conflict since it began over a year ago, and while many parties have tried to find a solution that results in peace and stability for all, nobody seems to have a permanent answer. Constant smaller violations of the current ceasefire, as well as the occasional serious violations as we have again seen recently, allow the peace to remain a fragile façade that both sides wear while continuing to act in furtherance of their ultimate goals with no resolve for the greater peace. Barring a large-scale conflict and renewed heavy fighting that proves successful for one side, either both sides must be willing to give, or fighting will continue as we have seen: indefinitely and with no hope for peace in sight.

For more information, please see:

Reuters – Violence escalates in east Ukraine ahead of talks – 14 April 2015

The Wall Street Journal – Diplomats Seek Withdrawal of Heavy Weapons From Ukraine Front Lines – 13 April 2015

Ukraine Today – ‘Normandy Four’ meeting today in Berlin for talks on fragile east Ukraine ceasefire – 13 April 2015

The Wall Street Journal – European Officials Push for Lasting Peace Deal in Ukraine – 12 April 2015

The Daily Signal – Visit to a Mariupol Hospital Lays Bare Ukraine War’s Toll – 12 April 2015

By Kyle Herda

Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

KIEV, Ukraine – As the unrest in Eastern Ukraine continues on, those living in the east are facing severe problems that compile more by the day. In particular, economic woes are plaguing Eastern Ukraine, as well as a constant military threat and plenty of destruction to civilian areas. Many from the east have been displaced in the past year and more continue to look elsewhere to escape the instability, but nearby countries are beginning to close up their borders to Ukrainian refugees.

Over 1 million people have been displaced since fighting began over a year ago in Eastern Ukraine, and applications for refugee status have typically been denied in countries around Ukraine. Only 70 people sought asylum in Lithuania, but only 31 were granted that status. Further, Lithuania states that it is suspending asylum applications from Ukraine due to the increase (Lithuania typically only receives around 5 asylum applications per year). A U.N. refugee agency claims that non-EU countries like Moldova and Belarus received 300,000 applications for asylum, while even further EU countries also received numerous applications. For example, France received 1,415 asylum applications last year, and only accepted 35. Russia also saw roughly 300,000 refugees seeking asylum who fled east after the conflict sparked up.

While fighting in Eastern Ukraine appears to have died down some momentarily, both sides appear to be taking the down time to fortify and dig in. This may actually be an opportunity for both sides to bulk up, as is furthered by a new report claiming that both pro-Russian rebels as well as Kiev and the United States believe a major offensive by Russia is due to occur within the next two months. 60,000 Russian troops are along the border with Ukraine, and Mariupol may be the target of an impending attack. While over 6,000 have been killed in fighting over the past year, only about 100 have died since the February 12^th ceasefire deal in Minsk was agreed to.

Given that the situation in Eastern Ukraine is already bad, compounded by the impending reawakening of heavy fighting, many civilians are fleeing before things heat up again. Times are already tough as is, and the future looks dark for now. Other countries, however, are unsure of what will come of all this fighting and unrest, and so they are even more hesitant to take action, much to the dismay of those seeking asylum.

For more information, please see:

Newsweek – Pro-Russian Rebels Told: Major Attack on Ukraine Imminent – 8 April 2015

IBT – Lithuania Suspends Asylum Applications for Ukrainians Fleeing War – 8 April 2015

The Local – Norway sees Ukrainian asylum seeker boom – 31 March 2015

The Local – France rejects hundreds of Ukrainian asylum bids – 26 March 2015

The Local – Sweden sees Ukrainian asylum seeker boom – 26 March 2015

Gulf Times – Ukrainian refugees facing dwindling options in Poland – 26 March 2015

Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty – Russia Says Almost 300,000 Ukrainians Asked For Asylum – 16 February 2015

By Kyle Herda

Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

KIEV, Ukraine – As an international team of investigators continues to look into the cause of the MH17 crash, it appears that the focus has shifted to gathering and protecting witnesses who can support the theory that it was a Buk missile that took down the plane last summer. The Joint Investigative Team (“JIT”) is offering protection to any witnesses who are concerned about coming out for safety reasons.

The JIT is currently “looking for witnesses who have seen Buk crew members or have more information about the identity of those involved in ordering and launching the Buk.” A Dutch report claims that the plane was downed by “high-velocity objects,” which other sources such as the JIT believe came from a Buk missile system. Intelligence appears to show such a system in the area moving prior to the plane going down, and so the investigation is currently focused on finding witnesses who can verify the involvement of this system, or perhaps help find those responsible and fill in some of the missing pieces to this story. It further appears that the Buk launcher crossed into Russia shortly after the plane was downed.

In the meantime, while the second Minsk cease-fire largely holds in Eastern Ukraine, both sides continue to commit minor violations. On Saturday, 22 Russian tanks crossed from the Russian town of Gukovo into Eastern Ukraine via Luhansk and towards Sverdlovsk. The Donetsk regional government also claims that Kiev violated the truce 13 times on Saturday. On Sunday, pro-Russian rebels fired 15 Grad missiles at Horlivka, and they claim to have received the 122mm Grad missiles from one of Russia’s “humanitarian convoys,” which are still arriving.

A survey by Ukrainian agency Interfax, which surveyed over 2,000 citizens in Donetsk and Luhansk, found 45% of residents did not have enough to eat. The United States is also stepping in to help by sending 35 paratroopers from the Army’s 173^rd Airborne Brigade, based in Vicenza, Italy, to train six Ukrainian National Guard companies over a two-month deployment. Britain has also sent 35 military personnel, along with non-lethal equipment, to train Ukrainians in Mykolaiv during a two-month deployment.

Meanwhile, while Russia continues to deny direct involvement in the Ukrainian fight, some Russians, such as Dmitry Sapozhnikov, claim to have left Russia to go to Ukraine to fight. Not only that, but Sapozhnikov claims that “all operations, especially large-scale ones, are led by Russian officers, by Russian generals… we fulfill the orders.” US Lt Gen Ben Hodges reports that nearly 12,000 Russian troops are currently operating inside Ukraine.

For more information, please see:

RT – MH17 probe looking for witnesses to back ‘Buk missile’ scenario – 31 March 2015

BBC – How Ukraine rebels rely on Russians – 31 March 2015

The Telegraph – Separatist fighter admits Russian tanks, troops ‘decisive in eastern Ukraine battles’ – 31 March 2015

Newsweek – U.S. Sending Army Paratroopers to Train Ukraine Forces – 31 March 2015

BBC – MH17 disaster: Appeal for Buk rocket witnesses – 30 March 2015

The Wall Street Journal – Dutch-Led Probe of MH17 Crash Says Buk Missile Launch is Primary Theory – 30 March 2015

Newsweek – Russian Tanks and Fighters Enter Eastern Ukraine, Says Kiev – 30 March 2015

Bloomberg – Ukraine Says Rebel Attacks Ebb as Tanks Said to Cross Border – 29 March 2015

By Kyle Herda

Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

KIEV, Ukraine – While pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine may have initially been happy when they gained control of some land, they are now facing the struggles that come with disassociating from the parent nation. Economic times are tough in rebel-held territory, and those living in Eastern Ukraine are struggling.

After losing sections of Eastern Ukraine to pro-Russian rebels, Kiev installed some cuts to the banking system and also imposed some travel restrictions. In effect, these moves have caused those already in East Ukraine to become trapped without much aid or assistance from outside, increasing the poverty issue for those in pro-Russian land. The Ukrainian military is claimed to be denying aid to the East, and the pro-Russian rebel’s People’s Republic of Donetsk has handled the need for aid by denying there is a need for it. Either way, both sides are denying aid to those in need.

Some kids living in Eastern Ukraine are also being denied school by their parents due to concerns that it is not safe. Those who remain speak about the damaged homes and loved ones who were killed in the fighting, as well as the many who have already left to move either further West or into Russia. Despite the ceasefire, fighting has yet to completely halt in Eastern Ukraine, as artillery fire reportedly hit rebel-held Donetsk on Sunday. It appears that the shelling originated near the Donetsk airport, and Ukrainian soldiers further report that small arms, 82mm mortar shells, and rocket-propelled grenades were used against government troops near the airport overnight; three people have been injured in the attacks.

Ukrainian soldiers also report small arms fire and 120mm mortar shells were fired upon them in Luhansk and near Mariupol, and further that there were nine incidents where pro-Russian rebel drones were seen in the air. NATO’s joint intelligence unit in the United Kingdom, according to U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, has also confirmed that Russia continues to send military and economic support into Eastern Ukraine for the pro-Russian rebels.

Perhaps pressured by all of this, neighboring NATO countries, particularly in the Baltics, have been very concerned over the past year that they may be next in sight for Russia. In an effort to increase pressure on Moscow and ease concerns of military takeover in other Eastern European nations, the United States is currently engages in “Operation Dragoon Ride,” which involves a parade of Strykers and the US Army’s 2^nd Cavalry Regiment riding throughout Eastern Europe.

For more information, please see:

Sky News (AU) – Artillery rocks Ukraine rebel base Donetsk – 23 March 2015

USA Today – For pro-separatist Ukrainians, hardship replaces hope – 22 March 2015

Bloomberg View – NATO Says Russia’s Still Pouring Arms Into Ukraine – 22 March 2015

RT – US military convoy parades through Eastern Europe – 22 March 2015

By Kyle Herda

Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

KIEV, Ukraine – A fragment found at the crash site of MH17 has been tested and appears to have come from a Russian BUK missile.

A Dutch journalist recovered a fragment from the July 17 crash that killed 298 people. The fragment was later tested by international forensic experts, which included defense analyst HIS Jane’s in London. Tests on the fragment show that it appears to have come from the Russian BUK missile, an anti-aircraft missile that fires from a truck to engage aircraft up to 13 miles off the ground.

Testing on fragments has revealed a low-grade steel alloy consistent with BUK missiles, and a fragment believed to have come from a warhead includes numbers that seem consistent with a serial number and a Russian alphabet letter. IHS Jane reports the warhead came from a BUK-9M317, which is the newer version of a BUK 1-2. German rocket scientists Marksu Schiller and Robert Schmucker also believe the IHS Jane report, claiming “only a Buk missile can take out the aircraft at such a height, in such a short time, and cause so much damage.”

Until this new report came out, reports merely claimed “high velocity projectiles” hit the plane but could confirm no more. Both sides continue to blame the other; Kiev and Western nations believe it was fired either by Russia or more likely pro-Russian rebels armed with a Russian missile, while Russia and pro-Russian rebels tend to claim Kiev is responsible.

Ukraine has been more stable as of late given a cease-fire that has created more peace in the country’s East than has been seen in months. There is one problem, however, as the cease-fire is contingent on both sides pulling away heavy weapons 15 to 45 miles from the front, yet reports show that both sides have failed to do so, and are actively moving heavy weapons near the front. On Wednesday, reports claim Kiev transported a tank and large-caliber gun in Avdiivka, near the front, and reports from Friday claim that two tanks and two 120mm guns were taken to the front in rebel territory near Donetsk. Lack of willingness by both sides to honor the cease-fire terms, along with reports officially linking Russia to the MH17 crash, create concerns that the cease-fire may again fall apart to renewed fighting that has already killed 6,000.

For more information, please see:

Yahoo – Confidence in Ukraine’s cease-fire hurt by arms violations – 21 March 2015

Business Insider – More proof that a Russian BUK missile shot down passenger plane MH17 – 19 March 2015

NL Times – Russian BUK Missile Took Out MH17: Dutch Forensic Researcher – 19 March 2015

Reuters – Fragment from MH17 crash site supports missile theory: Dutch TV – 19 March 2015