By Kyle Herda

Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

KIEV, Ukraine – Following another Minsk peace agreement involving leaders from England, France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia, a cease-fire has once again failed. Fighting has restarted in Eastern Ukraine, particularly in Debaltseve where it was initially unclear whether the cease-fire reigned although later discussion between relevant parties found that it did.

Sunday night at midnight, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko issued an order for Ukrainian troops to cease fire, but merely twenty minutes later pro-Russian rebel rockets caused collateral damage that made casualties of two elderly residents near Luhansk. Kiev claims more than 60 violations of the cease-fire within just the first 24 hours of the truce.

Many of the violations occurred in or around Debaltseve, where Donetsk separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko believes “[t]he Minsk agreement doesn’t” mention. A strong push by the rebels, allegedly backed by Russian artillery according to United States sources, in the two days before the cease-fire went into effect has allowed rebels to surround the town, according to rebel sources. There are reported upwards of 8,000 Ukrainian troops within Debaltseve, although Kiev has not confirmed such. Steven Pifer, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, claims that Ukrainian forces trapped within Debaltseve are hesitant to retreat because a similar situation yielding a retreat by Kiev forces from Ilovaysk in August was met by rebel artillery and rocket fire that led to many casualties.

In addition to the two elderly casualties, 5 Ukrainian security forces were reported killed along with 25 wounded by fighting with rebels at a military post near Zolote, also in Luhansk. These casualties were reported to have come from mortar shelling that occurred within 90 minutes of the cease-fire order from Poroshenko. Ukrainian defense spokesman Andriy Lysenko reports at least 129 violations have occurred since the cease-fire orders were given.

While the cease-fire still remains in power throughout much of Eastern Ukraine, and many of the violations occurred in or near a contested area that was arguably not mentioned within the Minsk agreement, the post-cease-fire incidents are causing a stir, and less than 48 hours into the cease-fire there is already a similar lack of faith in its holding as existed in prior agreements.

For more information, please see:

The Economist – Pseudo-peace – 16 February 2015

The New York Times – With Ukrainian Troops Trapped, a Cease-Fire Grows More Fragile – 16 February 2015

CNN – 5 Ukrainian security forces killed despite ceasefire, army official says – 16 February 2015

USA Today – Ukraine cease-fire ignored around key railway hub – 16 February 2015

The Wall Street Journal – Ukraine Cease-Fire Strained by Violence – 16 February 2015

By Kyle Herda

Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

MOSCOW, Russia – Svetlana Davydova, a Russian mother of seven, is facing 12 to 20 years in prison on charges of high treason. Davydova allegedly overheard a conversation while on public transportation regarding Russian conscripts being moved undercover into Ukraine to assist pro-Russian rebels, and is accused of reporting that information to the Ukrainian Embassy in Moscow. The irony is that Russia denies even having a military presence in Eastern Ukraine, so Davydova’s alleged report to the Ukrainian Embassy would be not state secrets justifying a treason charge, but merely what Russia regards as lies.

The first attorney appointed to Davydova did not even dispute the claims, merely stating that the charges were based on facts. Journalists and activists, however, came to her aid and hired a new attorney who helped release Davydova on bail. Davydova is not the only one in need of help against Russian treason charges, however. Savy serviceman Sergei Minakov, Gennady Kravtsov, former nuclear scientist Vladimir Golubev, and Russian Orthodox Church employee Yevgeny Petrin have all been charged with treason over the past year for allegedly giving information to foreign sources.

This rise in treason charges comes as the ruble continues to drop following multiple rounds of sanctions by the US and EU over the past year, and Russia faces even more due to renewed fighting in Eastern Ukraine. While a meeting to discuss peace is scheduled to occur soon between Russia, England, France, and Ukraine in Belarus, tensions are steadily climbing. After a discussion with German Chancellor yesterday, Obama talked with Putin today and was warned that the United States’s recent discussion about giving lethal aid to Kiev would be seen as an act of war by Russia.

The US has also made the decision to send 12 A-10 Thunderbolt attack planes, which were initially designed to attack Soviet tanks during the Cold War, and 300 personnel to an airbase in Germany to bolster NATO’s strength in Europe. This is all in addition the US decision to give further training to Kiev’s troops fighting in Eastern Ukraine, where fighting continues to intensify. Given the strengthening of Russia’s foes and the weakening condition of the Russian economy, along with instability across their border in Eastern Ukraine, and even some instability within their own borders (which peaked during 2011 and 2012 protests regarding Putin’s third election as President), a picture begins to take shape possibly explaining why Russia is cracking down on treason charges that are likely meant to scare the public into conformity at the expense of the few accused.

For more information, please see:

Yahoo Finance – Ukraine Tensions Hit Boiling Point as Obama Confronts Putin – 12 February 2015

Business Insider – The US is redeploying A-10s to Europe – 11 February 2015

RT – US military to train Kiev troops fighting in E. Ukraine – US Army commander – 11 February 2015

The Moscow Times – Russia’s Sudden Spate of Treason Cases Are Scare Tactic, Analysts Say – 10 February 2015

BBC – Ukraine crisis: ‘Don’t arm Kiev’ Russia warns US – 10 February 2015

The New York Times – High Treason, a New Russian Low – 9 February 2015

By Kyle Herda

Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

KIEV, Ukraine – German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko are all working towards another meeting in Minsk, Belarus to discuss peace. The first such meeting led to a cease-fire, but that agreement has since broken down as fighting has dramatically increased in Eastern Ukraine once again.

 

One point that Ukraine is pushing for is monitored security on the border between Ukraine and Russia. This is due to evidence that has come in at several points over the past year that suggests Russia has sent weapons, troops, and vehicles to Eastern Ukraine for the rebels to use in their fight against Kiev. Regardless, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko is eager to bring back peace to their neighboring country.

While these talks may not include the United States, the US is nonetheless considering sending lethal force to Ukraine to assist in fighting the pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine. Poroshenko says Ukraine would welcome more non-lethal aid such as “counter-barrage radar …, communications and radio jamming technology,” night-vision goggles, and radios. Further, Obama is set to meet with Merkel before she goes to Minsk for the new round of peace talks, likely to discuss and coordinate the United States’s plan and Europe’s plan.

Pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine, along with Russia, have been pushing for Eastern Ukraine to gain independence as their own nation – “New Russia.” Recently, rebels in the Donetsk region and the Luhansk region have been discussing working together in making this goal a reality, and Putin has pushed for international recognizance of independence. Kiev agreed in the original Minsk agreement to back off from Eastern Ukraine and grant more autonomy to the rebel-held territory, but given the recent violence and shifting of the front, Kiev is less willing to do so now and it will likely effect Kiev’s willingness to grant this again in the new Minsk talks.

For more information, please see:

Fox – Cruz pushes for US to arm Ukraine, as European leaders push for cease-fire – 8 February 2015

The Guardian – Ukraine conflict: four-nation peace talks in Minsk aim to end crisis – 8 February 2015

Yahoo – Putin-backed rebels just made a huge move right under Europe’s nose – 6 February 2015

BBC – Ukraine crisis: Pentagon ‘chief’ inclined to send weapons – 4 February 2015