By Kyle Herda

Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

VILNIUS, Lithuania – In Russia’s most recent move against the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, Moscow has sought to reopen criminal investigations into Lithuanian residents who refused to serve in the Soviet army after Lithuania declared dependence in 1990. An estimated 1500 young people refused the orders nearly 25 years ago, and now Russia wants them to pay.

While Russia has already made this same request once prior, roughly ten years ago, the surrounding context now makes the situation more dire. The recent abduction of the Estonian border guard, coupled with Russia’s current attempt to prosecute him for allegedly spying, has forced the Lithuanian State Security Department to advise Lithuanians who withdrew from the Soviet army in 1990 to refrain from traveling outside of Lithuania, or at least outside of any European Union or NATO countries.

Lithuanian President, Dalia Grybauskaite, has taken the additional step to establish certain strategic sectors of the Lithuanian economy as those that should have major investments first vetted to the government. This comes as a matter of national security after a Russian-led company leased two large plots of land next to Siauliai airport, where NATO planes patrol the Baltic skies. NATO currently has Operation Reassurance based in Siauliai, and the aims of this operation are to preserve NATO European airspace and safeguard NATO nations from air attacks, specifically in response to Russia’s recent aggressions in eastern Europe.

Russia has also flown jets close to Baltic borders over 140 times this year, and recently successfully tested its new Bulava Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (“ICBM”) with a range of 8,000 kilometers. Russia has recently spoken out about securing the rights and interests of ethnic Russians. Russia’s Foreign Ministry chief monitor of human rights overseas, Konstantin Dolgov, in a speech in Latvia’s capital, Riga, said, “It has to be stated with sadness that a huge number of our compatriots abroad, whole segments of the Russian world, continue to face serious problems in securing their rights and lawful interests.”

As long as the military remains involved on both sides of the border, there will remain worry and uneasy feelings for all parties involved. On the one hand, worries in the Baltics are completely justified, as the situation in Ukraine prior to both Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the subsequent invasion by Russia of eastern Ukraine draws many parallels to what we are seeing now in Russia’s behavior towards the Baltic States. On the other hand, the situation in the Baltics differs from Ukraine in that NATO has already stated that a military response would come for the Baltic States in the event of a Russian invasion, citing Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty as justification of such an event.

So while concerns that this may be Crimea all over again carry heavy weight, they may not be entirely justified. While the situation began very similarly, the implications here if events continue down the same path would result in a very different, and potentially much bloodier, outcome. Perhaps this will deter either side from pushing too far, or perhaps this will allow for a much greater escalation in events.

For more information, please see:

Ottawa Citizen – Photos: CF-18 and F-16 Falcons over Lithuania – 17 September 2014

Reuters – Lithuania to vet more investments for national security risks – 17 September 2014

Baltic Review – Lithuanians Strongly Advised to Refrain from Traveling to Countries Outside the EU or NATO – 17 September 2014

The Baltic Times – More Russian jets near Baltic borders cause for concern, says army chief – 17 September 2014

The Moscow Times – Russia Sees Need to Protect Russian Speakers in NATO Baltic States – 16 September 2014

Canada National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces – Operation REASSURANCE – 12 September 2014

The Moscow Times – Russia Proves Nuclear Muscle With Ballistic Missile Launch – 10 September 2014

By Kyle Herda

Impunity Watch Reporter, Europe

EDINBURGH, Scotland – On Thursday September 18, Scotland will vote for whether to remain a part of the United Kingdom or separate and declare independence. Regardless of the outcome, the results will have a heavy impact throughout Europe.

If Scotland’s vote for independence results in a vote to stay with the United Kingdom, Scotland will still receive some new benefits, in addition to keeping some old benefits. Britain has promised that in the event of a vote to remain in the UK, Britain would decentralize some power to Scotland. It is entirely possible that Northern Ireland and Wales could also receive similar benefits should Scotland remain united.

The political impact this vote in Britain could be huge, as Scotland has been united with England for 307 years. The loss of Scotland would be disastrous to British Prime Minister David Cameron and would make him appear weak and reckless to the British people for allowing Scotland to leave. Even if Scotland stays, to give Scotland more power and possibly have to give Wales and Northern Ireland more power would have a similar effect. Either way, England’s next elections will focus greatly on this event.

In addition to decentralized powers, Scotland would also continue receiving benefits from the rest of the UK, including, and likely most importantly, European Union membership and use of the euro currency. Should Scotland vote ‘yes’ for independence, Scotland would likely be promptly left outside of the EU and without a currency. While such a scenario would likely be followed with steps on how to apply for EU membership, it would entail time where Scotland is on its own to effectively establish a military and currency, two issues that are no small feat.

An independent Scotland would put the EU into a tough position, as the UK is already one of the more powerful economies in the world and would be weakening some. This move would also cause problems within other member States, as it would encourage independence referendums throughout Europe. Particularly, Italy’s Northern League, Flemish separatists in Belgium, and the Catalans and Basques in Spain would pose an immediate threat to the independence of those nations. The Catalans pose a particularly significant risk that Spain is worried may pan out should Scotland succeed in their movement.

This same threat is also felt in Eastern Europe in nations such as Latvia or Ukraine, where Russian-ethnic citizens could push for independence referendums, perhaps even backed by Russia who has shown it is willing to act militarily to support such movements.

As with most major decisions, while the act itself of Scotland separating from the UK may appear to be a good idea, it could have serious and unplanned impacts that may lead to major changes throughout Europe on the whole, with results that are impossible to foresee. For now, the only thing left to do is wait for Scotland’s vote on Thursday.

For more information, please see:

Daily Times – Europe changing shape whichever way Scotland goes – 15 September 2014

Business Insider – Europe fears Scottish independence contagion – 14 September 2014

The Independent – Scotland independence vote: Everything you ever wanted to know about life after the result – 14 September 2014

The New York Times – Scottish Independence Would Ripple Through Europe – 11 September 2014