By Delisa Morris

Desk Reporter, South America

El Niño, a weather phenomenon, is probably going to occur in the third quarter of 2014.  Which means that we should be seeing El Niño like temperatures within the next few weeks.  During El Niño the weather is characterized as oddly warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

 

The phenomenon starts as a body of warm water developing  in the central and eastern Pacific ocean.  The water then flows toward the western coast of South America.  This sets off several weather changes globally.

El Niño weather only recurs at two- to seven-year intervals.  The effects of which have a major impact on the climate around the world, including heavy rainfall and droughts.

Places in the world become dryer than normal conditions due to El Niño’s drought effects, or more floods occur due to the heavy rainfall.  El Niño also affects the temperature, normal temperatures are either colder or hotter than normal during El Niño weather.  The weather changes mostly increase global temperatures on top of man-made global warming.

The socio-economic impacts during El Niño can be extremely detrimental to the affected area.  During the last El Niño from 2009 until 2010, the hottest year on record, in northern Brazil the conditions were drier than normal while across tropical South America conditions were wetter than normal conditions.  South America usually is most impacted by widespread flooding, though there is also an increased chance of landslides.

During El Niño agriculture, infrastructure, housing, and health, such as outbreaks of cholera and other water-borne diseases, are vastly affected.  There will also be a shift in nutrient-rich ocean currents that lure fish, which could lead to a rise in the prices of food.

The unpredictable weather wreaks havoc on farmers and other agricultural markets.

Many international organizations are jump-starting El Niño preparedness warnings to mitigate the extreme weather’s impact.  For example, World Food Program has begun storing food in areas that may be difficult to reach in extreme weather conditions.

According to Moody’s Investors Service, governments and banks in South America are in better financial shape to deal with the costs of this year’s El Niño than in the past.

The Pacific ocean has already began to warm to weak El Niño temperatures, the weather is not expected to dissipate until early months of 2015.

La Niña is the name for when the El Niño phenomenon is ending, and temperatures start to return to normal.  Scientists say that while the two extreme weather patterns are not caused by global warming, their frequency and intensity are vastly affected by greenhouse gasses.

For more information, please see:

Business Insider – Prepare for El Nino – July 1, 2014

Time – El Nino Increasingly Likely, United Nations Weather Agency Warns – June 26, 2014

VOA news – El Nino Likely to Trigger Extreme Climate Events – June 26, 2014

The Wall Street Journal – South America Better Positioned Financially for El Nino, Moody’s Says – July 1, 2014

by Delisa Morris

Impunity Watch Desk Reporter, South America

CARACAS, Venezuela—In Caracas, each year a fortnight of heavy downpours known colloquially as El Cordonazo de San Francisco (the lash from St. Francis of Assisi’s belt) cover the Venezuelan capital, the storms are considered a tropical winter.

Currently, President Nicolas Maduro, is drawing heavy ire from critics on both the left and right, and seemingly in a constant state of damage control.  In early February, a rash of street protests and barricades paralyzed the nation, and were violently suppressed by state authorities in a series of crackdowns that saw several notable opposition leaders incarcerated.

In the middle of a triumphalist speech for “national journalists day,” broadcast by law on every Venezuelan television and radio station, the lights suddenly went out on Maduro—and on much of the country.

Much of Caracas, and areas in nearly all of Venezuela’s other 22 states was affected.  The country’s aging and poorly maintained power grid struggled to get back online.  The Caracas metro had stopped working and people had trouble making it home.  Lots of people that would normally have been on the metro were overflowing the sidewalks and taking up much of the roadways.  All of the stoplights were out.  The result was a perfect storm of commuter congestion where normal Caracas chaos became absolute mayhem.  There have been three major blackouts this year.

On some previous occasions blackouts have been blamed on saboteurs from either the U.S. imperialists (“the CIA”) or else sinister Venezuelan groups from the traditional elite (“los fascistas”).  At other times, nature itself has taken the blame, such as in 2012 when a wire-hungry opossum was held responsible for a day-long blackout in Guayana City, or the iguana two years earlier who got loose in the grid, sufficed to cut off the lights in Anzoátegui State for an extended period.

Pending the outcome of Maduro’s investigation, preliminary culpability seems to have been attached to the wind, or, more specifically, the unusually heavy winds caused by El Niño, toppling a collection of eight electrical towers.

Many people are uneasy and not amused about the excuses provided by the government for the blackouts.  Maria “Macarena” Paz, a Caracas engineer, is underwhelmed by the explanations. “So it’s no longer the cable-eating iguanas, the CIA, or the opposition, it’s the wind! Knocking down no less than eight towers specifically designed to withstand hurricane gales but swept away in unison by light breezes… they must really think we’re idiots.”

For more information, please see:

The Daily Beast — Who Will Maduro Blame for Venezuela’s Blackout’s This Time? — 28 June 2014

Wall Street Journal — Power Outage Hits Venezuela — 27 June 2014

Reuters — Venezuela Blackout Leaves Commuters Scrambling, Silences President — 27 June 2014

The Guardian — Widespread Blackouts Hit Venezuela — 27 June 2014

 

by Mridula Tirumalasetti
Impunity Watch Reporter, South America

BRASILIA, Brazil–Senator Aecio Neves has received the nomination of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, or PSDB, to run against President Dilma Rousseff in the election this October. Neves is running on a platform to reduce inflation and encourage economic growth by introducing pro-market measures and cutting public spending. In a speech at the national convention of the PSDB in Sao Paulo, Neves said “We are hostages today to the worst economic equation in emerging markets, with minimal growth and worsening inflation.” Neves also told news sources, “Our government will create a more serene and propitious climate for the market, which is important to recover investments and grow.” Neves has been known to have criticized the ruling party, the Workers Party, because of corruption and has said he would maintain the social programs in Brazil which have brought poverty down.

Rousseff was elected in October 2010 as Brazil’s first woman president. Born to a Bulgarian immigrant, Rousseff joined the underground left-wing resistance in 1964. She spent three years in jail, where she was tortured, after being arrested in 1970.

Rousseff’s popularity is dropping as Brazil faces economic uncertainty, but also because of the numerous protests over the public spending for the World Cup soccer tournament and the series of scandals at the energy company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, which is state-run. In addition to the labor strikes that have been ensuing, Rousseff has been the target of verbally aggressive chants coming from crowds during the World Cup. Rouseff has said that the chants did not reflect the views of the majority of Brazilians. However, there have been an increasing number of Brazilian voters who have publicly said they would never vote for Rousseff.

Although Neves promises that an adjustment will be made regarding fiscal policy, Neves does not promise an overnight remedy and has said I could take two to three years before inflation goes down. Neves is the former governor of Minas Gerais, one of Brazil’s most populous states and second richest state, and plans to establish a meritocracy. He currently serves as a senator.

The Brazilian election is October 5. Polls show Rousseff has dropped in poll ratings from 34% in April to 32.2% this month, though she is still the frontrunner.  Neves has gained popularity from 19.9% to 21.5%. If neither candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, a runoff election will take place on October 26.

For more information, please see: 

UK Reuters–Opposition candidate closes in on Brazil’s Rouseff ahead of vote–15 June 2014

UK Reuters–Brazil’s Rouseff loses support ahead of Oct vote-poll–11 June 2014

Bloomberg News–Brazil’s Neves Gets Party Endorsement, to Challenge Rouseff–14 June 2014

BBC News–Brazil opposition appoints Neves to challenge Rouseff–14 June 2014

The Guardian–Brazil’s Dilma Rouseff shrugs off World Cup abuse–14 June 2014

by Mridula Tirumalasetti
Impunity Watch Reporter, South America

CARACAS, Venezuela—Leopoldo Lopez, the Harvard-educated politician, who is the leader of the Popular Will party in Venezuela, has been ordered to stand trial. Lopez has been in jail since February 18 for allegedly instigating violence, damaging property, and arson during an anti-governmental protest on February 12 where three people were killed. Lopez turned himself in after being accused of, by President Nicolas Maduro of the United Socialist Party and other ministers, planning these protests. Lopez, if convicted, faces up to 13 years in jail. The trial is supposed to start in August, according to Lopez’s lawyers.

The Popular Will party, a radical opposition group, seeks to force the resignation of Maduro. Demonstrations began in February over the escalating crime rates, and have continued on over the past few months. The main issues are the collapsing economy, shortages of certain food staples, and political corruption. At least 42 people have been killed since the February 12, the start of the unrest.

Human rights organizations, such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, as well as some U.S. congressman have condemned and criticized the imprisonment of Lopez and the case against him. Amnesty International argued the charges Lopez faces are a “politically motivated attempt to silence dissent.”

Even Governor and former presidential candidate, Henrique Capriles, said “Thursday’s decision was brewing for some time.” He agrees that the imprisonment of Lopez is evidence of the deteriorating Venezuelan judicial system. Capriles added, “It’s just another barricade for justice.”

The Venezuelan government has also recently accused another opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, of conspiring with U.S. officials to assassinate the president. Both Machado and U.S. officials have denied these allegations. U.S. officials argued these allegations to be the government’s distraction from the real issue of the Venezuelan economy.

U.S. congressional leaders have, however, drafted a bill that would impose sanctions that would specifically target the Venezuelan government officials who have been accused of human rights abuses. Although the bill was approved in the House of Representatives and is currently awaiting a decision from the Senate, members of the State Department are discouraged from using these sanctions because of the possibility of ending any negotiations between the government and the opposition. Talks between the opposition forces and the government are currently halted, as the opposition demands the release of all prisoners jailed during the protests.

For more information, please see:

Al Jazeera America–Venezuela opposition leader to remain jailed–5 June 2014

BBC News–Venezuela: Leopoldo Lopez must stand trial, judge rules–5 June 2014

The Wall Street Journal–Jailed Venezuela Opposition Leader to Face Trial in August–5 June 2014

The Guardian–Venezuela opposition leader remains in jail while awaiting trial–5 June 2014