Death Toll: 173 martyrs, including 6 women, 9 children and 14 martyrs under torture: 53 reported in Hama; 49 in Damascus and Suburbs including 13 in the Marjeh can bombing; 19 in Aleppo; 17 in Idlib; 13 in Homs; 11 in Daraa; 8 in Deir Ezzor; 2 in Raqqa; and 1 in Lattakia  (LCC).

News

Obama moving toward sending lethal arms to Syrian rebels, officials say Yet even as Obama voiced caution in responding to what he has called the “red line” on chemical weapons use, officials described him as ready to move on what one described as the “left-hand side” of a broad spectrum that ranged from “arming the opposition to boots on the ground.” “We’re clearly on an upward trajectory,” the senior official said. “We’ve moved over to assistance that has a direct military purpose.” Officials did not specify what U.S. equipment is under consideration, although the rebels have specifically requested antitank weapons and surface-to-air missiles.

Leader of Hezbollah Warns It Is Ready to Come to Syria’s Aid The leader, Hassan Nasrallah, declared in a televised speech that Hezbollah could become more deeply involved in the future, and warned that Syria had “real friends” who would not allow it “to fall into the hands” of America, Israel and Islamic extremists, the forces that the Syrian government routinely blames for the two-year uprising against it. He appeared to be referring to Iran, a patron of both Hezbollah and the Syrian government, as well as Hezbollah itself, whose well-organized guerrilla fighting force, honed by past battles with the Israeli military in southern Lebanon, is widely considered more effective than Lebanon’s army. Hezbollah relies on Iran and Syria to supply its arms. “You won’t be able to bring down Damascus and you cannot bring down the regime, militarily,” Mr. Nasrallah said. “The battle will be long.”

Obama balks on Syria chemical arms threat With the U.S. disengaging from the unpopular war in Afghanistan and still smarting from the difficult conflict in Iraq, Obama has been reticent to unleash American military power in the Syrian fighting, a civil war that has killed tens of thousands of people. The president said the conflict is a “blemish on the international community generally.” But he added that he was not prepared to rush to respond to growing evidence that chemical weapons had been used in Syria, something he had termed would mark the crossing of a “red line” and a game-changer. “I meant that we would have to rethink the range of options open to us,” Obama said. But when measuring additional action, Obama said, “I’ve got to know I’ve got the facts.” “We don’t know who used them. We don’t have a chain of custody that establishes” exactly what happened. Obama further declared that the international community had to be completely confident in the assessment that chemical weapons have been used. Syria urged the United Nations to send scientists to investigate its claim of a chemical attack by rebels in Aleppo, but said it does not trust U.S. accusations that such arms were used elsewhere in the country.

Bombings Hit Syria as Obama Urges Caution on U.S. Role The blasts in Syria, which killed at least 13 people in Damascus and at least five at the Bab al-Hawa crossing in northern Syria, came a day after an attempted assassination of Syria’s prime minister in central Damascus from a bomb aimed at his motorcade. The prime minister, Wael Nader al-Halqi, survived the attack but at least five others including a bodyguard were killed, Syria’s state news media reported. In a news conference in Washington, Mr. Obama said that despite an American intelligence assessment last week that there was evidence that chemical weapons had been used in Syria, the evidence had not yet surpassed his “red line” for a change of American strategy regarding the conflict, in which President Bashar al-Assad is fighting an increasingly violent insurgency.

Rebel advocate: Obama’s call for Syria probe ‘a bluff’ “Obama will never get the concrete evidence he wants unless there’s a full U.N. investigation, to which Assad will not agree,” said Abdulwahab Omar, a Syrian anti-Assad activist based in London. “That means Obama will never be obliged to do anything,” he said. “You can call it a bluff. He tried to show that the United States would be prepared to intervene when things get serious, when in reality, the U.S. is not prepared to intervene unless its own interests are directly affected.”

Syria War Draws Caution From U.S. Joint Chiefs The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, said Tuesday he is “cautious” about U.S. military intervention in Syria because of doubts that it would halt the violence or achieve political reconciliation. He cast doubt on the effectiveness of establishing a no-fly zone, saying that only about 10 percent of the casualties suffered by anti-regime forces are caused by air strikes. He said 90 percent are caused by small arms and artillery, which would be unaffected by a no-fly zone. Dempsey, an Army officer who is the nation’s most senior military commander and chief military adviser to the president, also said the Joint Chiefs have “not yet” been asked to look at options for putting American ground forces inside Syria.

Russia bans passenger flights over Syria The federal agency Rosaviation said the ban on flights over Syria went into force on Monday and will remain until further notice. “The federal air transport agency believes that in this situation commercial interests cannot prevail over the safety of people who use the services of Russian airlines,” it said in a statement. The ban comes after the crew of a charter plane flying from the Egyptian resort of Sharm-el-Sheikh to the Russian city of Kazan on Monday said it had come under threat when it flew over Syria.

Activists: 15 Syrian rebels die in battle for base The Britain-based Observatory for Human Rights said the rebels tried to storm the Mannagh base in the northern province of Aleppo late Monday but the regime deployed fighter jets to the area. The jets pounded rebel positions around the helicopter base, which is located near Syria’s border with Turkey, said Rami Abdul-Rahman, the Observatory’s director. On Tuesday, 15 rebels were killed in a hit on the base, said Abdul-Rahman, whose group relies on a network of activists on the ground.

Investigative Reports

Running the gauntlet: delivering food in Syria Matthew Hollingworth said in an interview last week that WFP is trying to feed 2.5 million people every month inside Syria – a tenth of the population – and a million outside, in a conflict that has left 70,000 dead. He says his organization will need to almost double the number of people it reaches by the end of the year. “It’s no secret that the conflict is intensifying, or has been intensifying over the last month,” said the WFP’s deputy regional emergency coordinator. “The two parties of the conflict are digging in.” “We are trying to keep up with the enormity of the crisis and the impact of the brutality,” he said.

At least 500 Europeans fighting with Syria rebels, study finds, stoking radicalization fears The EU’s Gilles de Kerchove told the BBC there were at least 500 Europeans taking part in Syria’s civil war, and it was “likely many of them will be radicalized” fighting alongside some of the known Muslim extremist militias in the country, and that the returning EU nationals would pose, “a serious threat” to security in European nations. Peter Neumann, Director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR) at London’s King’s College, was led the report. He believes the number of fighters from countries including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Sweden and Belgium to be “at least in the mid-hundreds to high-hundreds.”

Already unable to cope with refugees, Syria’s neighbors brace for more The United Nations says about 1.5 million Syrians have fled to the countries that border Syria, and just as on the Lebanese border, more are waiting to enter Jordan and Turkey as well. Aid agencies already have said they cannot cope with the problem in its current state, let alone the arrival of more Syrians, a trend that appears inevitable as Syrian government troops push to regain territory lost to rebels along the Lebanese and Jordanian borders. Many of those fleeing now have been displaced inside Syria multiple times, and officials in Aarsal, which lies on a longtime smuggling route between the countries, say they’re expecting the biggest influx yet.

Syrians deserting the FSA: Faust wants his soul back In the midst of this harsh war, Syrians have found themselves at a crossroads: obliged to choose between either their personal interest and life or the country’s freedom. A question occurs to me here – Is it possible for fighters who quit the FSA to go back to their old lives? It seems highly improbable, given that Syria has been ripped into so many different pieces with different authorities holding sway over particular areas – here the regime, there such and such battalion. The country is now a hotchpotch of hot and cool areas. Families have been displaced across the country in their millions. Most fighters are wanted by intelligence forces and they can’t go back to their original villages and towns, nor can they meet their families who were forced to flee. This is how our lives – and not just that of FSA fighters – have been trapped, in the eye of a tornado that is hurtling at breakneck speed. Where and how we get off is anyone’s guess. One thing is for sure – it won’t be an emerald city.

Did someone fire missiles at a Russian jetliner flying over Syria? R ussia’s foreign ministry said in a statement that it will “take the necessary emergency measures to clear up the details of the story and work in cooperation with the Syrian authorities.” But some aviation experts say they are skeptical that anything of the kind could have happened, and suspect the event may have been “staged,” perhaps for political reasons. “This is a fairy tale. Nothing like that could have happened, it’s just been staged,” says Magomed Tolboyev, one of Russia’s most famous test pilots. “It’s too silly to discuss.” But others say it could have happened and, if so, it’s a very serious warning for civilian aircraft to avoid flying over Syria. “A passenger plane has no means of preventing a missile attack, but it does have a system that warns of approaching objects and automatically makes the plane go up or down in response,” says Valery Entanaltsev, executive director of the Fund for Developing Aviation Infrastructure, an industry-supported public organization. “It’s not clear who was behind this shooting, but it needs to be thoroughly investigated. Maybe it was a provocation. It’s a very worrisome development,” he says.

Analyses & Op-Eds

Max Boot: Red Line or Punch Line? Instead of doing something about Assad’s war crimes, Obama prefers to ask for a full United Nations investigation, which could take years–if ever–to reach a definitive finding. This is rapidly turning the U.S. into a global joke: the superpower that issues ultimatums it has no intention of enforcing. But the consequences of inaction are no joke because they are, as former U.S. army officer Joseph Holliday argues, a virtual invitation for Assad, now that he has seen the world will do nothing, to expand his use of chemical weapons.

David Ignatius: Frustrated by Obama’s caution on Syria Obama said in the televised news conference that he wanted solid evidence of chemical weapons that could prompt international action against Bashar al-Assad. “If we end up rushing to judgment without hard, effective evidence, then we can find ourselves in a position where we can’t mobilize the international community to support what we do,” Obama said. But Idriss countered that his forces have enough information now to answer Obama’s questions of how, where and when the weapons were deployed on four separate occasions. He welcomed U.S. plans to train his forces but said this strategy will be useless if Assad continues the chemical attacks. Idriss claimed the regime could deliver the chemical weapons with planes and Scud missiles, which he said must be destroyed.

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”

An Appeal

Syrian prime minister survives Damascus bombing, six die Six people were killed in the blast, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. Previous rebel attacks on government targets included a December bombing which wounded Assad’s interior minister. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the bombing, which he described as a “terrorist attack.” As prime minister, Wael al-Halki wields little power but the attack highlighted the rebels’ growing ability to target symbols of Assad’s authority in a civil war that, according to the U.N., has cost more than 70,000 lives.

Russia: Plane’s safety ‘threatened’ over Syria, but it lands safe with no injuries, damage The state news agency RIA-Novosti quoted the press service of Rosturism, the Russian state tourism authority, as saying the plane came under rocket fire Monday. But a statement on the ministry’s website did not give details, saying the plane’s crew saw “signs of war activity which, in the crew’s opinion, threatened the safety of the plane.” Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich told the ITAR-Tass news agency that the plane was carrying 159 people.

Bodies of 30 Hezbollah fighters arrive to Lebanon from Syria The sources added that Al-Quds Brigade commander, whose known by his nickname, Abu Ajeeb, was also killed in Syria in battles against rebels. Reports have emerged that members of the Lebanese Shiite group were fighting with forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against rebels. Former Hezbollah chief Subhi al-Tufaili told Al Arabiya in an interview earlier this week that at least 138 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in the Syria fighting. Tufaili added that Hezbollah, who is backed by Iran and the Syrian regime, was told to fight with the Assad forces in direct orders from Tehran. However, the Shiite group has repeatedly stated that it was not taking part in the fighting in Syria.

American doctor gives ‘proof of chemical weapon use’ to U.S. On Monday, Syrian-American doctor Zaher Sahloul was near the Syrian border in Turkey, where he told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that reports from physicians indicate there had just been another attack. Sahloul believes this is the sixth recent chemical weapons attack Syria. “We have medical proof,” Dr. Sahloul told Amanpour. “Patients had respiratory and neurological symptoms.”  Physicians working inside Syria are collecting samples and giving them to Dr. Sahloul ‘s organization, The Syrian American Medical Society.

Obama voices Syria chemical weapons concern to Putin In a statement, the White House said on Monday that Mr Obama and Mr Putin talked on the phone on Monday, with the US leader “underscoring his concern over Syrian chemical weapons”. Washington has repeatedly criticised Russia – along with China – for blocking tougher action against Syria in the UN Security Council, including new sanctions. Mr Putin and Mr Obama are scheduled to hold face-to-face talks in June. Mr Obama last week promised a “vigorous investigation” into the issue. He warned that it would be a “game changer” for US policy if the reports about chemical weapons were to be proved true.

Israel Says It Is Not Seeking U.S. Intervention in Syria The official, Yuval Steinitz, the minister of strategic and intelligence affairs and international relations, also said that his government saw no comparison between American policy toward Syria and the Obama administration’s announced intention to stop Iran from gaining nuclear capability. “We never asked, nor did we encourage, the United States to take military action in Syria,” Mr. Steinitz said at a conference in New York sponsored by The Jerusalem Post. “And we are not making any comparison or linkage with Iran, which is a completely different matter.”

Hagel: “Wait to get the facts” before acting on Syria “We are continuing to assess what happened, when, where…working with our allies and our own intelligence agencies,” said Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel during a press conference with Japanese Foreign Minister Itsunori Onodera. “I think we should wait to get the facts before we make any judgments on what action, if any should be taken, and what kind of action… Asked in a follow-up whether he could rule out any unilateral U.S. military action, or whether any such action might require the cooperation of the international community, Hagel replied, “My role is to present to the president…options for any contingency. I won’t speculate on those options, nor publicly discuss those options.”

Video: Amateur singer’s heartbreaking song for Syria sweeps the Arab world The song seems to have tapped into the agony of two years of war, which is felt not just in Syria but across a sympathetic Arab world, as evident in the crowd’s reaction. It is especially powerful for those most affected by the conflict. The Financial Times’ Abigail Fielding-Smith reports, “Syrians abroad, especially those from Aleppo, describe breaking down in tears over it.” Though the power of Hamdan’s song appears to stem in part from his decision to avoid taking sides or placing blame, his sudden popularity has put him under political scrutiny and some pressure. “Inevitably there has been speculation over which ‘side’ Hamdan is on,” according to the Financial Times story. “According to an interview with the singer in Lebanon’s Daily Star newspaper, people have even made threats against him on Facebook.”

Veteran Italian war correspondent missing in Syria Domenico Quirico, 62, an experienced war reporter, entered Syria from Lebanon on 6 April saying he would be out of touch for a week. La Stampa says there was sporadic phone contact until 9 April since when nothing has been heard.

Syrian teenager self-immolates in Beirut The National News Agency reported that a Syrian youngster set himself on fire on Sunday in Beirut’s Corniche al-Mazraa and is currently in critical condition. The nineteen-year-old, identified as Ahmad Mahmoud Youssef, reportedly attempted to self-immolate in the area’s Barbour Square due to financial hardship and debts he was incapable of paying. Youssef was rushed to the Geitaoui Hospital where he is being treated for third degree burns.

Investigative Reports

Links Between Alleged Chemical Attacks In Saraqeb, Idlib, and Sheikh Maghsoud, Aleppo Today there’s been fresh reports of an alleged chemical attack on the town of Saraqeb, Idlib, with photographs and videos from the scene posted online.

The Syrian Electronic Army: Bashar al-Assad’s shadow warriors Phishing attack is latest by pro-Assad hackers operating out of Dubai, who target sites with views opposed to their own But unlike Tunisia, Egypt and Libya – whose former regimes were caught badly off guard – Assad’s government has been fighting back. It has created an increasingly rambunctious group of counter-revolutionary hackers. These hackers have a twin function: to punish western news organisations seen as critical of Syria’s regime, and to spread Damascus’s alternative narrative. This says that the war in Syria isn’t a popular uprising against a brutal, despotic family-military dynasty but rather an attempt by Islamist terrorists to turn Syria into a crazy al-Qaida fiefdom.

Euro Mayors Try to Keep Youths From Going to Syria Through much of western Europe, scores of Islamic youths have heeded the call to take up arms for a cause that is only a few hours away by plane. The phenomenon has alarmed authorities amid signs that the insurgency is becoming increasingly radicalized, with strong infiltration by al-Qaida. European authorities see a double danger, one that’s summed up by Somers who describes the youths as “cannon fodder” in Syria — and potential “full-blown terrorists” if they make it back home alive. But it all raises a conundrum: In a free society, how can you prevent these young people from packing up and leaving?

Syria’s Refugee Entrepreneurs Find a Home in Jordan To tap into the pool of talented entrepreneurs set adrift by the war, Oasis500 has been actively recruiting Syrian entrepreneurs—through personal networks, placed articles in publications owned by Abdulsalam Haykal, a Syrian media entrepreneur, and ads running on Facebook (FB), Twitter, LinkedIn (LNKD), and Jordanian radio stations. To help pave the road from Aleppo to Amman, the accelerator is also paying travel and some housing expenses for Syrian entrepreneurs. The efforts are paying off. In the accelerator’s first boot-camp class after beginning the outreach, which is funded in part by the governments of the U.S. and Jordan, 13 of 60 participants were Syrians. Oasis500 invested in two of those entrepreneurs: Ali Kaj and Judy Samakie, who’s building an e-commerce site to help Jordanians find and order healthy food—a problem in a region where it can be hard to find health-conscious or even vegetarian meals. The current boot-camp session has attracted nine Syrians.

Rebellion unveiled: Kurdish women join war on Assad Ruken reads Nietzsche and Aristotle, smokes Gauloises Blondes and last month she shot her first man dead with a Russian-made assault rifle. Amid an increasingly Islamicised struggle in which bearded men, religious conservatism and Islamic slogans have become the face of Syria’s revolution, the 27-year-old commander of 40 Syrian-Kurd fighters in Aleppo, all of them women, is unusual in every way.

Fleeing war, Syrians find ‘Little Damascus’ in Cairo’s outskirts The sprawling new development in the desert west of Cairo has become a hub for the Syrian refugees, but its long parallel avenues lined with residential blocks are a far cry from the narrow streets and bustling markets of old Damascus… In Cairo, the new arrivals have carved out a “Little Syria” for themselves, where flags of the Free Syrian Army flutter in the cement landscape, and shops brimming with shawarma spits and pastries are frequented by patrons with Syrian accents.

Analyses & Op-Eds

The Economist: Chemical weapons in Syria – Acid test: America needs to take action against Bashar Assad. Chemical weapons are not much use on the battlefield, but they can demoralise the rebels and spread terror among the population. They may have an indirect purpose, too, for Mr Assad. If he uses them and the outside world fails to take action, his supporters are likelier to conclude that he will stay in power and his opponents will lose faith… Mr Obama’s wariness is worsening a dreadful situation. As the fighting drags on, the rebels are being increasingly radicalised. They will eventually be a source of global jihad. The millions of refugees inside and outside Syria are suffering grievously. Violence and misery are spreading—to Iraq, where Sunni and Shia are killing each other again; to Lebanon, which has lost a prime minister to sectarian rivalries; to Jordan, overrun by refugees. Israel fears that Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shias’ party-cum-militia, will end up hardened by war and armed with sophisticated weapons. Arguing about soil samples hardly seems like an adequate response… Mr Obama is instead leading Mr Assad to believe that his threat is empty. For a man trying to persuade the world that Iran will cross a red line if it builds a nuclear bomb, that is the wrong message.

Tony Badran: Assad Reading the Signs When viewed from Assad’s vantage point, it would appear that the US administration has been receptive to every talking point his regime has chalked up. There could be only one explanation, as far as Assad is concerned: the US is pragmatic. It’s willing to play ball. If this were confined to Assad, perhaps it wouldn’t be much to be concerned about. However, when this perception of a convergence between the US position and Assad’s talking points extends to Washington’s regional allies, it becomes a matter that affects the US position and credibility in the region. These allies have been waiting for a sign from the White House that it will, in fact, go all the way in Syria. Unfortunately, Assad’s reading is proving to be correct: the Obama administration will do no such thing.

A Friend in Need: As Syria implodes, the United States and its allies need to help Jordan help itself. There’s one place, though, in which the United States should be getting involved that has only upside. Among many troubling trends of the Syrian civil war has been the creation of enormous amounts of refugees in countries that are ill equipped to handle them. Lebanon and Turkey have absorbed more than 750,000 refugees, but no place has felt the brunt of Syria’s huge population displacement as much as Jordan.

Syria: the life cycle of civil war Providing shadow governance structures, especially where local councils involve the encouragement of voluntary participation (rather than through recruitment or ‘conscription’) indicates a future capacity to out-administer the incumbent central government. A review of resilient Syrian opposition groups or shadow administrations suggests that the nature of governance as well as the nature of warfare and violence is shaping the strategic logic of civil war transitions as a means of significant social change in the Middle East and North Africa.

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”