The Road Ahead!

Government goes down in Lebanon. Truce declared between PKK and Turkey. Israel apologizes to Turkey. Turkey accepts. ‘Tis nothing but a region rearranging itself around developments in Syria, in preparation for rearranging Syria herself. The end result, in the words of President Obama, will not be “ideal.” It’s going to take many more years of civil activism to make it so. But then, that’s how revolutions work. You start with a protest that triggers a civil war that metastasizes into a proxy war that leads to new external arrangements which, in turn, “inspire” internal arrangements, and violà: a  new order emerges that needs to be challenged in new ways to become popularly legitimate, stable and durable. But at least that’s the optimistic take on things. On the long run, I am forever an optimist. It’s the short run that kills me.  

 

Today’s Death Toll: 100 martyrs, including 5 women, 12 children and 2 martyrs under torture: 28 in Damascus and Suburbs, 18 in Daraa, 17 in Hama (9 executed in Kernaz), 13 in Aleppo, 9 in Homs, 5 in Raqqa, 5 in Idlib, and 5 in Deir Ezzor (LCCs).

Points of Random Shelling: 340 points. Shelling with warplanes 14 points. Explosive barrels in 6 points. Scud missiles in 3. Surface-to-surface missiles in 3. Shelling with mortars in 107. Artillery in 112. Rocket launchers in 95 (LCCs).

Clashes: 110. Successful rebel operations include shooting down a MIG warplane in eastern Hama Province and targeting an armored car in Tal Othman. In Homs, FSA rebels imposed a siege on the Dabaa military airport and repelled several attempt by regime forces to storm the old neighborhoods of Homs City, and of the town of Al-Dar Al-Kabira. In Daraa, rebels liberated the checkpoint at Janin and destroyed an armored vehicle in Sheik Meskin. In Aleppo City, rebels regained control of Saed Bin Abi Waqqas Mosque in Salah Eddin neighborhood. In Damascus, rebels in Daraya destroyed a T72 tank and repelled attempts to storm (LCCs).

 

News

Obama Warns Syria Could Become Enclave For Extremists “I am very concerned about Syria becoming an enclave for extremism because extremists thrive in chaos,” the president said at a joint news conference with Jordan’s King Abdullah II. “They don’t have much to offer when it comes to actually building things, but they’re very good about exploiting situations that are no longer functioning. They fill that gap.” Obama said he was certain that Assad will go, saying “it’s not a question of if, it’s when,” and urged the international community to work together to accelerate a viable political transition. “We can’t do it alone, and the outcome in Syria is not going to be ideal. Even if we execute our assistance and our coordination and our planning and our support flawlessly, the situation in Syria now is going to be difficult,” he said. “Something has been broken in Syria, and it’s not going to be put back together perfectly immediately anytime soon, even after Assad leaves,” he said.

Lebanon’s government falls “I have sought, as much as I could, to preserve Lebanon and keep it away from erupting volcanoes to protect the balance [in the country],” he added. The premier called for the formation of a national-salvation government, saying, “There will be no rescue [for Lebanon] except through dialogue and making room for the formation of a salvation government in which all groups are represented.” Miqati’s resignation came after the cabinet failed to approve the formation of a supervisory electoral body and did not vote on the extension of the tenure of Internal Security Forces chief Ashraf Rifi, who like Miqati is a prominent Sunni figure from Tripoli. The PM said it was “necessary that Rifi continues to hold his position during these circumstances.”

Israeli Apology Resets Alliance With Turkey: Netanyahu’s Contrition on 2010 Raid Offers U.S. Renewed Leverage in Mideast The rapprochement between the two countries could boost Ankara’s bid to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, if it results in the pooling of Israel’s technology and intelligence capabilities with Turkey’s robust military presence on the Syrian border, analysts said.

France, Britain fail to win easing of Syria arms ban Paris and London want to exempt Assad’s opponents from an EU arms embargo, a step they believe would raise pressure on Assad to negotiate after two years of a civil war that has claimed 70,000 lives. But they won little support from other EU member states at a foreign ministers’ meeting in Dublin, diplomats said, despite raising concerns about chemical weapons to bolster their case.

On Capitol Hill, calls for action in Syria Two senior U.S. senators who are influential in Washington on national security and foreign policy circles sent Obama a letter on Thursday urging him to do just that. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., told Obama he should use air strikes and take other measures to cripple Assad’s military, boost the opposition and protect Syrian citizens. On Friday, several senators joined the chorus arguing for intervention, and several others signaled they are not opposed.

Armenians Flee War In Syria For Homeland, One Century After They Left Mass Killings In Turkey ArmeniaNow, which is published by a nongovernmental organization, has reported that at least 6,000 Armenian families have departed or were forced out of Syria since the civil war erupted two years ago. BBC reports the number is closer to 10,000.

The Jihadist from Phoenix Eric Harroun claims to have joined up with an al Qaeda-linked group fighting in Syria’s brutal civil war. We tracked him down, but getting the truth was more difficult.

Syria’s refugee brides:’My daughter is willing to sacrifice herself for her family’ Refugee brides: Woman takes a cut to help Syrian refugee girls in Jordan find Arab grooms from all over Middle East

 

Special Reports

CIA Expands Role in Syria Fight: Agency Feeds Intelligence to Rebel Fighters, in Move That Deepens U.S. Involvement in Conflict

The provision of actionable intelligence to small rebel units which have been vetted by the CIA represents an increase in U.S. involvement in the two-year-old conflict, the officials said. The CIA would neither confirm nor deny any role in providing training or intelligence to the Syrian rebels… The CIA has sent officers to Turkey to help vet rebels that receive arms shipments from Gulf allies, but administration officials say the results have been mixed, citing concerns about weapons going to Islamists. In Iraq, the CIA has been directed by the White House to work with elite counterterrorism units to help the Iraqis counter the flow of al Qaeda-linked fighters across the border with Syria. The West favors fighters aligned with the Free Syrian Army, which supports the Syrian Opposition Coalition political group… The U.S. uses satellites and other surveillance systems to collect intelligence on Syrian troop and aircraft movements as well as weapons depots. Officials say powerful radar arrays in Turkey are likewise used to track Syrian ballistic missiles and can pinpoint launch sites.

The Dom: Syria’s Invisible Refugees … one ethnic minority has undergone more than its share of suffering — both during the current fighting and for centuries preceding it — and few outside of Syria know much about it. The group is known as the Dom and it has been a presence in Syria since before the Ottoman Empire. Often mislabeled by the pejorative “gypsies,” the Dom get their name from their language, Domari, means “man.”  They have joined the exodus of Christian, Muslim and other Syrians refugees into Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and beyond.  But wherever they go, they generally face a less than warm welcome.

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”

 

Video Highlights

Activists from the town of Yelda in Eastern Ghoutah, Damascus Suburbs, claim that the pink smoke we see here is a poison gas that has been used against local populations leading to a number of cases of suffocation http://youtu.be/Jr7S0AJyHrE Elsewhere in the city, in the neighborhood of Sidi Qaddad, the pounding leave several dead http://youtu.be/ChS1nVQJKS0 , http://youtu.be/_Dt_CYPXlX4

Al-Jazeerah correspondent, Ahmad Zeidan, embedded with the rebels around the Damascus claims that rebels killed two Afghan militiamen today who were taking part in the protection of Ruqaiyah Shrine in Damascus City. There is a small Shia population in Damascus whose members hail from different parts of South Asia, and the regime has been recruiting them for its operations around Shia shrines. As sectarianism increases, it is quite likely that the regime could attempt to recruit Shia fighters from across the world and not only Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey (Alawites) to carry on its war, as I argued in Rise of the Warlords.

Douma and other rebel strongholds in Eastern Ghoutah, Damascus Suburbs, come under intense shelling http://youtu.be/VrsrrQ–qoQ Zamalka http://youtu.be/jyL5PWag86s , http://youtu.be/2OEjdrRU-6I

The pounding of rebel strongholds in Damascus City continues: Yarmouk Camp http://youtu.be/ZQwX1AwTwlM Maisat http://youtu.be/IHXXhosCVO4 Tadamon http://youtu.be/sxP9CdRuaws , http://youtu.be/kLnUF-tvFKU

Rebels gathering to carry out attack on a local loyalist regiment on the southern outskirts of Damascus City http://youtu.be/Ga6AtHMuPf0 , http://youtu.be/orA12X0z1oo Soon, MIG fighters began pounding rebel positions http://youtu.be/ERbv0gX2nTE

In Eastern Ghoutah, rebels from the Maghaweer Brigades continue their “cleanup operations” against loyalist outpost consolidating rebel hold on the ground http://youtu.be/Qj4l_vtHcg0

To the West, the pounding of the town of Daraya continues http://youtu.be/a7LmFtf5QFU

Violent clashes between rebels and loyalists continue to rock Daraa City http://youtu.be/NKBMMGUFDHM , http://youtu.be/KuwUM_MczGI House to house combat http://youtu.be/qzkcdj3p3Cc Street to street http://youtu.be/AadTgx71Y4o

Al-Wa’er Neighborhood in Homs city comes under intense shelling http://youtu.be/aV8FHjMLKfE Fires erupt http://youtu.be/SIbxjeHZ_4E , http://youtu.be/kxdUizUgpuM , http://youtu.be/UjEJncRT8uA Khaldiyeh neighborhood was also targeted http://youtu.be/01_CxrWv1-8

The pounding of the town of Rastan continues http://youtu.be/npdhOfhqr9o , http://youtu.be/Ll-u3rCMByI

Jabhat Al-Nusrah consolidates its hold on the town of Kabajib in Deir Ezzor Province, by clearing the last loyalist outpost and capturing these prisoners http://youtu.be/yALJ-Wbkbbw

Please feel free to use this information, including videos, images and commentary, in your coverage of current developments in Syria. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact me at this email: ammar.abdulhamid@gmail.com. The Digest will also be posted on Blogger and Facebook.

 

Do the Right Thing!

Syrian Revolution Digest – March 21, 2013 

Who used chemical weapons? Was it even a chemical attack? Who committed this or that massacre, this or that assassination? It’s becoming increasingly difficult to answer these questions with certainty. Yes, when the world was busy not looking, or gazing with disbelief, feigned or sincere, things have gotten that murky in Syria. In general terms, we can still say with certainty that the regime is responsible for the bulk of it, but, when it comes to specific incidents, we simply cannot be that certain anymore. In an ultimate sense, the Assad camp will have to bear the moral, and legal, responsibility for putting us on the path towards this hell, but that’s for the history books. And there will always be controversy in this regard as well. Still, what we need to focus on today is the responsibility for stopping this mayhem and putting us on the path towards recovery. Here, U.S. and western leaders cannot but be involved. In fact, they have to lead. Without a no-fly zone, support to the rebels, and a political process, there could be no peace. No matter how murky things get and how deep the quagmire, the tools needed to help us out of it remain the same. Denial is not a virtue.

 

Thursday March 21, 2013

 

Today’s Death Toll: 181, including 10 women, 7 children and 4 under torture: 90 in Damascus and Suburbs including 42 in Iman Mosque bombing in the Mazraa Neighborhood, 35 in Homs, 15 in Aleppo, 13 in Idlib, 12 in Hama, 11 in Daraa, 2 in Hassakeh, 2 in Raqqa, and 1 in Deir Ezzor (LCCs).

 

Points of Random Shelling: 362. Warplanes shelling 29 points. Scud missiles 4 points. Surface-to-surface missiles 5 points. Shelling with explosive barrels 10 points. Cluster bombs strikes 6 points. Artillery shelling was reported at 115 points. Mortar shelling 117 points. Missile shelling 80 points (LCCs).

 

Clashes: 125. Successful rebel operations include shelling of Damascus International Airport, and targeting the Informatics Department in the Abbasid Square in Damascus City. In Raqqa province, rebels targeted the military airport near Tabqa with homemade rockets. Liberations of several key loyalist checkpoint and outposts in Daraa province in the towns of Hraak, Nawa and Daraa City (LCCs).

 

News

Damascus mosque blast kills 42 including senior Syrian imam State television and anti-government activists earlier had reported 15 dead. The television said a “terrorist suicide blast” hit the Iman Mosque in central Damascus, and Mohammed al-Buti, imam of the ancient Ummayyad Mosque, was among the dead. “The death toll from the suicide bombing of the Iman Mosque in Damascus is 42 martyrs and 84 wounded,” the health ministry said later in a statement.

Official: ‘Something went down’ in Syria, but it was short of chemical weapons … now analysts are “leaning hard away” from the notion that Syria used chemical weapons against its own people, a U.S. military official directly familiar with the preliminary analysis told CNN. here are “multiple indicators” for this emerging conclusion, an administration official said. That official told CNN “there are strong indications now that chemical weapons were not used by the regime in recent days.” The official would not detail the indicators but said it points to the preliminary U.S. conclusion that “weaponized chemical agents” were not used. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, were not authorized to publicly release details of the intelligence analysis.

U.N. to Investigate Chemical Weapons Accusations in Syria Mr. Ban said the investigation would begin “as soon as practically possible,” with various agencies of the world body developing a plan on how to proceed. He called on all sides in Syria’s two-year-old civil war to allow “unfettered” access to the United Nations team.

Democrats and Republicans unite around calls for more aggressive Syria policy As concerns grow about the possible use of chemical weapons in Syria, the debate is shifting rapidly on Capitol Hill as top Democrats and Republicans urge President Barack Obama to do more to support the Syrian opposition — even through military intervention. The latest example came late Thursday, when House Foreign Affairs ranking Democrat Eliot Engel (D-NY) and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-MI) introduced a new bill calling on the Obama administration to arm the Syrian rebels. Called the “Free Syria Act of 2013,” the legislation calls for increased humanitarian and economic assistance to the Syrian opposition as well as arms, training, and intelligence support to vetted rebel groups that share Western values.

Syria rebels take towns near ceasefire line with Israel “We have been attacking government positions as the army has been shelling civilians, and plan to take more towns,” said Abu Essam Taseel, from the media office of the “Martyrs of Yarmouk”, a rebel brigade operating in the area. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based group monitoring the conflict in Syria, said rebels had taken several towns near the Golan plateau, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war and later annexed.

U.N. leader: Syrian civil war threatens cease-fire with Israel The development poses the most serious challenge to date to the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement, which set the terms for a strained, but stable, stalemate between Israel and Syria following the Yom Kippur War. For decades, it has helped to guarantee relative calm between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights.

Obama should ask Jordan to take more Syria refugees: rights groups Jordan has given refuge to more than 360,000 Syrians but “routinely and unlawfully” denies entry to many, Human Rights Watch and Harvard Law School’s International Human Rights Clinic said in a statement. Palestinians who lived in Syria are regularly turned back by Jordanian border guards, the groups said, as are single Syrian men and refugees who arrive without identity cards.

Syria: Heavy fighting in Aleppo plagues lives of hundreds of thousands “There are tens of thousands of displaced people in the governorate with no income and no savings who depend on assistance to survive,” said Marianne Gasser, head of the ICRC delegation in Syria, upon her return from the governorate. “Apart from the pressing humanitarian needs, several roads, hospitals, schools, other public facilities and world heritage sites have been damaged. Essential public services such as the distribution of power and water have also been disrupted as a result of the heavy fighting that has plagued the governorate over the past nine months.”

Syria’s president makes rare public appearance SANA quoted al-Assad as saying: “Today Syria as a whole is wounded… there is no one that didn’t lose one of his or her relatives, a brother, father or a mother,” before insisting that the country is involved in “a battle of will and steadfastness,” calling on the audience to remain strong to protect others. It was the second public outing for the normally camera-shy al-Assad family in less than a week, after months out of the limelight: Asma al-Assad was spotted at a “Mother’s Rally” at the Damascus Opera House last weekend, scotching rumors she had fled the country for Russia, the UK or Jordan.

 

Special Reports

Two years into Syria’s civil war, no end in sight “I am not optimistic. I think the regime will never finish off the revolution and in the same way it is very, very, very difficult for the revolutionaries to finish off the regime,” he said… “The Syrian political uprising has mutated into carnage, into a nightmare, into a bloodbath,” said Fawaz Gerges, director of the Middle East Centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science. “If the conflict is prolonged, as many of us fear, I fear that the nation as a whole is at stake.”

Tony Badran: The end of Syria On its current trajectory, Syria is headed toward geographical fragmentation. As the security situation deteriorates and Washington persists in its refusal to lead, neighboring states will begin to carve out effective buffer zones inside the country. Once that process is complete, Syria will become a unitary state in name only.

From Istanbul with Dismay: Meetings with the Syrian Opposition Although concerns about sectarian tensions and extremist forces are real and completely legitimate, they are not a cause for inaction. In fact, further inaction — meaning, according to the Syrians I met, the continued policy of supplying nonlethal assistance — will only exacerbate existing problems and allow for other external forces to gain more influence on the ground. The United States is involved in this conflict, deliberately or not. Despite the direst of circumstances inside Syria, the people still evince a glimmer of hope for the democratic future of their country. It is not too late for the United States to meaningfully change the course of this conflict — but not likely to be achieved simply by the provision of food sealed with a stamp reading “Made in United States of America.”

Yossi Alpher: As Syria descends into chaos: challenges to Israel (PDF) Syria’s evolving collapse, and with it perhaps the collapse of Lebanon as well, is liable to confront Israel with significant military and political challenges. Military challenges range from Salafi border terrorism to attacks using strategic weaponry, whether in the hands of non-state actors or in a Samson-like scenario executed by a dying regime. Another fast-approaching development could conceivably place a residual Iranian-Hizbullah-Alawite entity directly to Israel’s north.

Syria Is Already More Violent Than Iraq: And its destruction will define the Middle East for years to come. While the challenge of providing for Iraqi refugees was daunting, the Syrian case is, if anything, more so. Syrians are scattered between a number of neighboring countries — Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Jordan — and the United Nations estimates that it only has 30 percent of the necessary funds to provide for refugees for the first half of 2013. The plight of Syrians displaced within their country is even worse: The vast majority of aid money does not reach rebel-held areas, held up by red tape at the U.N. relief agencies in charge of aid distribution.

 

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”

 

Video Highlights

 

This video shows the immediate aftermath of the explosion that killed the loyalist Imam Al-Bouti in the Iman Mosque in Damascus City http://youtu.be/mplDzfchi2Y

 

In Daraya, Damascus Suburbs, rebels have to fight to take back each apartment from loyalist snipers http://youtu.be/axGzYOofUow Tanks keep making their deadly rounds http://youtu.be/TgFOU-XpUdc , http://youtu.be/Zfl1j3KI7jI But the pounding of the city with rockets continues http://youtu.be/ybWCGmUPHy8 , http://youtu.be/hzfCXFaZnQI and on the nearby town of Moadamiyah http://youtu.be/zz46DfPIa0Y , http://youtu.be/yoniEHUdL3Y

 

Rebels in Barzeh, Damascus City, target a local security headquarters http://youtu.be/-LTuiMYPLj4

 

Meanwhile, the aerial bombardment of Eastern Ghoutah Region in Damascus Suburbs continues: Kafar Batna http://youtu.be/d_R78poTQok Sbeineh http://youtu.be/1lAmNvx-XCo

 

Scenes of chaos after the pounding of the Sukkari neighborhood in Aleppo city on March 20 http://youtu.be/0m2Pn9LIUPU Four buildings collapsed http://youtu.be/6H2-fORJNXs Despite the level of destruction, a child is saved http://youtu.be/Yu15cpS_RTc

 

Scenes of chaos after an aerial attack on the town of Talbisseh, Homs province http://youtu.be/_rPHiMih8IQ , http://youtu.be/A0-m_Qs0mCQ The initial explosion http://youtu.be/Nlu-PgwwPRM , http://youtu.be/-9yBPIoL5f0 The destruction http://youtu.be/Uvb6_PZpZpg

 

Homs city, scenes from the liberation of Al-Qarabees neighborhood http://youtu.be/CJVHrcz_zGs Meanwhile, the aerial pounding of rebel strongholds continues: Khaldiyeh http://youtu.be/YLFhlubzjKM , http://youtu.be/vL4xG0RWhX4

 

Rebels from the Syrian Islamic Front destroy a loyalist outpost in North Latakia http://youtu.be/7TZGTH2LQx4

 

Rebels capture of van transporting loyalist militias near the city of Hama. The fate of the prisoners remains unknown http://youtu.be/iv89eIXwz-g

 

 

Oh Mr. Postman, Give me a sign!

Chemical Weapons might be the poor man’s nuclear missiles, but mixing these chemicals and mounting them on a rocket then launching it successfully still requires a certain level of expertise that rebel groups in the country do not seem to have. Moreover, before the Aleppo attack was reported, activists in Damascus made similar claims and produced similar videos regarding an attack on the town of Al-Otaybeh in Eastern Ghoutah. Considering the timing of the Aleppo attack, if confirmed, less than 24 hours after the opposition selected a PM, and considering the drive by France and the UK to arm rebels and the current military setbacks the regime is facing in showdowns all over the country, the regime seems to be desperate enough to seek comfort in chemistry.

 

Today’s Death Toll: 131, including 6 women, 9 children and 3 under torture: 46 in Damascus and Suburbs, 41 in Aleppo, 13 in Deir Ezzor, 8 in Hama, 7 in Idlib, 5 in Daraa, 4 in Raqqa, 3 in Homs, 2 in Lattakia, and 1 in Quneitra (LCCs).

Points of Random Shelling: 354. Aerial bombardments by warplanes counted in 15 points. Scud bombing counted in 6 points. Shelling using Surface-to-Surface missiles counted for in 8 points, most targeting Deir Ezzor. Explosive barrels were used in 9 points. Shelling using cluster bombs was recorded in Tabaqah in Raqqa. Artillery shelling counted in 127 points. Mortar shelling counted in 98 points. Rocket shelling counted for 97 points (LCCs).

Clashes: 132. Successful rebel operation include targeting Army Command Headquarters and the Ministry of Defense in Damascus, the Military Airport of Raqqa, and the Military Security Center in the town of Kubajib in Deir Ezzor city (which was also hit by regime’s warplanes by mistake). In Kubajib, also destroyed a loyalist convoy (LCCs).

 

News

Regime & Russia accuse: Alleged chemical attack kills 25 in northern Syria

U.S. evaluates: U.S. evaluating Syria chemical weapons charges

Israel confirms: First use of a chemical weapon in Syria appears confirmed

Experts dispute claim: Chemical Warfare allegations in Syria – An initial assessment

Activists allege another attack in Damascus: Second Chemical Attack in Damascus

Top Democrat endorses Syria no-fly zone Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) endorsed Tuesday the idea of establishing a no-fly zone inside Syria and attacking the air defenses and air power of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad… Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Tuesday called for the United States to put boots on the ground in Syria to secure chemical weapons sites, in light of new allegations that chemical weapons were used in Aleppo province.

U.S. Commander: Contingency plans under way for Syria “The Syrian situation continues to become worse and worse and worse,” Adm. James Stavridis, the commander of U.S. European Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “No end in sight to a vicious civil war.” Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria, said the Syrian people “face a new level of ruthlessness from the Assad regime, which is raining Scud missiles down on residential neighborhoods, destroying hospitals and schools, and sending its thugs rampaging through the streets to terrorize their fellow citizens. The carnage is appalling.” Ford’s comments came in prepared testimony for Wednesday’s House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing. The Associated Press obtained a copy of his statement.

Syrian Opposition Pledges Rule of Law in Rebel-Held Areas Speaking yesterday after opposition delegates elected him to the premier’s post during a meeting in Istanbul, Hitto said his nascent administration would begin to govern from inside the country, appealed for members of the armed forces to lay down their arms and promised that there would be no dialogue with Assad. The opposition should take the Syrian government’s seat at the United Nations and the Arab League and have control over the country’s embassies, he said.

FDD Praises Senators Casey and Rubio for New Syria Legislation If passed, the Syria Democratic Transition Act of 2013 will require the U.S. to support the establishment of a new government in Damascus that is committed to pluralism, democracy, and peace. It will also mean strengthening those within the Syrian opposition who are pursuing this goal. “Economic warfare against the Assad regime, its overseas assets, and those foreign persons who provide the regime a financial lifeline are a crucial part of an overall strategy to overthrow the regime and support Syria’s moderate opposition forces ,” said Mark Dubowitz, FDD Executive Director who leads the Foundation’s projects on sanctions and nonproliferation.

British charities launch first joint Syria appeal Four British charities have publicly admitted for the first time that they are operating inside Syria on the eve of a major appeal for the stricken Middle Eastern nation which is being launched tomorrow by the Disaster Emergency Committee. It is the first time a joint appeal has been launched for Syria following two years of fighting which has killed more than 70,000 people and forced an estimated three million from their homes. Staff with Islamic Relief, Save the Children, Christian Aid and CAFOD are all taking extraordinary risks delivering aid directly to those affected by the on-going war as well as those who have managed to find sanctuary in neighbouring countries.

Reports of Syrian jet fire into Lebanon called ‘significant escalation’ The French Foreign Ministry in Lebanon issued a statement condemning the attacks. “The aerial bombing carried out today by the armed forces of the Syrian regime on Lebanese territory, in the region of Ersal, is a new and serious violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty,” the statement said. “France strongly condemns this escalation and reiterates its commitment to Lebanon’s sovereignty and the inviolability of its borders.”

 

Special Reports

 Islamic law comes to rebel-held Syria Building on the reputation they have earned in recent months as the rebellion’s most accomplished fighters, Islamist units are seeking to assert their authority over civilian life, imposing Islamic codes and punishments and administering day-to-day matters such as divorce, marriage and vehicle licensing. Numerous Islamist groups are involved, representing a wide spectrum of views. But, increasingly, the dominant role is falling to Jabhat al-Nusra, also known as al-Nusra Front. The group has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States for suspected ties to al-Qaeda but is widely respected by many ordinary Syrians for its battlefield prowess and the assistance it has provided to needy civilians.

A friend brought to my attention this new service launched by NY Times to monitor developments in Syria: Watching Syria’s War Videos and images of the continuing conflict in Syria. The site is edited by Liam Stack known for his balanced reporting. I found the site very useful and in some ways reminiscent of Lara Setrakian’s Syria Deeply.

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”

NOW Lebanon – Ammar Abdulhamid: Why nonviolence failed in Syria
Many people in Syria and across the world continue to wonder why the Syrian uprising took such a violent turn, despite the bravery and selflessness of so many of the early protest leaders. Indeed, the development seems to have come as a result of a sophisticated strategy implemented by the Assad regime from the outset. Understanding this strategy, rather than lamenting the situation, as so many nonviolence advocates and theoreticians continue to do, might help prevent its replication elsewhere. (Keep reading, a longer version can be accessed here)

“The Free Syrian Army Does Exist” by Koert Debeuf & Response by Aron Lund
My colleague Joshua Landis published an interesting debate on the nature of the Free Syrian Army on his blog Syria Comment. Both Koert and Aron provides interesting peaks into the world of rebels affiliated with the Free Syrian Army, and both make excellent points. However, I have to say that, in general, I tend to agree more with Aron’s analysis. Albeit Koert’s analysis seems to capture the dynamics in parts of Aleppo more accurately. We also have to bear in mind that groups like Jabhat Al-Nusra and its affiliates do not consider themselves members of the FSA. So do many of the groups affiliated with the Syrian Islamic Front. In other words, even at its best, the FSA cannot be seen as being able to include all major fighting groups on the scene. At this stage, it’s one of several loosely organized armies active on the scene.  (Lund’s paper can be downloaded here)

 

Video Highlights

State TV claims that “terrorists” launched a chemical attack on Khan Al-Assal http://youtu.be/_b0lGQuNucY While Israel confirms the attack, Dr. Jean-Pascal Zanders, European Union Institute for Security Studies questions whether the images we see reflect a chemical attack:

·  There are no images of the site of the attack; just of some affected people. These people do not show outward symptoms of a CW attack. Definitely not mustard; definitely not a nerve agent.

·  There are far too many people, including non-medical staff, around the affected persons. Apart from a surgical mask, nobody wears any protective garment or gas masks. If there would have been a CW attack with one of the agents known (or believed) to be in Syria’s arsenal, then most of the people present would have been fatally or seriously contaminated.

·  I am deeply sceptical of allegations that the insurgents would have resorted to CW. There would have far greater propaganda benefits if they were to demonstrate to the world that they had overrun one of the storage or production facilities. In addition, insurgent spokespersons were very quick to deny the government allegation.

·  Regarding a case of a transfer to (and, hence, use by) surrogates of the Syrian government, I have already expressed my views on such a scenario.

·  Present-day battlefields are extremely toxic. Many materials may be propelled into the air and inhaled by bystanders. If some (toxic) chemical container were hit by a shell, then bystanders could be badly affected, as we have seen in a variety of recent internal conflicts (former Yugoslavia; Sri Lanka; Iraq; etc.). Bhopal reminds us of the large-scale effects of an industrial accident. Any investigation of the allegation must first exclude plausible alternative explanations.

Meanwhile, rebels provide these videos as evidence of chemical weapons use in the town of Otaybeh in Eastern Ghoutah region, Damascus suburbs. The attacks preceded those in Aleppo and took place in rebel strongholds http://youtu.be/MKZ4QOKqtZI , http://youtu.be/Wip5qSM9mio , http://youtu.be/UwbFPMMxEjY , http://youtu.be/sgL8BeIzsv4 , http://youtu.be/-ME3RLI-yOc , http://youtu.be/n618SrZSVWE Site of the pounding http://youtu.be/MfIz22wbgiE Doctor claims that all patients had respiratory problems postulating that some phosphate based compound was used http://youtu.be/eEm20CyX2lg Three were reportedly killed.

Activists in Baba Amr Neighborhood in Homs City make similar claims http://youtu.be/IuamfvTe088

Rebels in Deir Ezzor blow up a regime convoy heading towards the town of Kubajib http://youtu.be/EvjRqqbqrXY Then attack the survivors http://youtu.be/sLJiQ71iYr0 In the town of Kubajib itself, activists claim that a regime’s warplane bombed the headquarters of the local military security branch seemingly by mistake http://youtu.be/9ZHZkH7albA

Battles are really heating up in the southern parts of Syria, especially in the Daraa Province. This reflects the fact that rebels have received more advanced weapons, and the plan seems to liberate the province and help lay siege to Damascus City. It will still take a few more weeks of pressure before this can be achieved, barring setbacks.

In Daraa City, clashes between loyalists and rebels intensify http://youtu.be/U-GY3poOTf4 , http://youtu.be/ip6rJuuHUfw

In Damascus City, regime uses missile launchers stations at the Mazzeh Military Airport to target rebel strongholds to the west http://youtu.be/owqAkc_IiFQ Neighborhoods to the south are also targeted http://youtu.be/03RIS59XmhQ

Hit or Miss, and does it make a difference?

The Syrian opposition has finally gifted us a PM: Mr. Ghassan Hitto, a U.S. citizen and an IT guy who was openly supported by the Muslim Brotherhood, among other groups and figures. Let’s hope Mr. Hitto does not prove a major “misso” as he goes about forming his cabinet. Opposition figures assure us that the provisional government will operate in liberated areas, but that will be unwise. Without a no-fly zone, the provisional government will be surely targeted by Scuds and MiGs, their presence will bring more havoc to whatever community is chosen as a host. The wiser course will be to send representatives to all major liberated centers to take part in the emerging local councils and supervise local elections.  

 

Today’s Death Toll: 128, including 15 women and 18 children: 46 reported in Damascus and Suburbs, 36 in Aleppo (most in Marjeh neighborhood), 19 in Homs, 8 in Daraa, 6 in Deir Ezzor, 5 in Idlib, 3 in Hama, 2 in Sweida, 2 in Lattakia, and 1 in Hassakeh (LCCs).

Points of Random Shelling: 409. Aerial bombardment counted in 23 points. Scud bombing counted in 5 points. Shelling using Surface-to-Surface missiles counted for in 4 points. Explosive barrels were used in 5 points. Shelling using cluster bombs was recorded in Khirbit Ghazaleh in Daraa. Vacuum bombs were recorded in Idlib. Artillery shelling counted in 136 points. Mortar shelling counted in 135 points. Rocket shelling counted for 99 points (LCCs).

Clashes: 182. Successful rebel operations include downing 3 warplanes in Idlib, targeting Tishreen Palace, the Damascus International Airport, the Conferences Place and the Security Quadrangle in Damascus City. Rebels also repelled an attempt at storming Barzeh Neighborhood and targeted security headquarters in central Damascus. In Damascus Suburbs, rebels took control over the headquarters of the 16^th Regiment in located East of Utaybeh and clashed with Hezbollah fighers in the Suburb of Sayida Zeinab. In Deir Ezzor, rebels took control of the major Gas station supplying the 137^th loyalist brigade. In Homs, they regained control of the Bayada neighborhood (LCCs).

 

News

Syrian Opposition Elects a U.S. Citizen as Prime Minister After a prolonged day of maneuvering and voting on Monday that lasted into the early-morning hours, representatives of the opposition coalition, meeting in Istanbul, chose Ghassan Hitto, 50, a former information technology executive, who emigrated from Syria many years ago and until recently had lived in Texas. Mr. Hitto was heavily involved in volunteer efforts to help Syrians whose lives had been upended by the uprising against Mr. Assad.

Syria Warplanes Hit Lebanon for First Time A brief dispatch by the news agency said that “warplanes affiliated with the Syrian Air Force” attacked the Wadi al-Khayl Valley area, near the Lebanese border town of Arsal, without specifying whether they had caused casualties or damage. The mountainous area is known for its porous border. It is considered a haven for Syrian insurgents, and the civilian population there largely opposes President Bashar al-Assad of Syria.

Top general urges caution on Syria options, rebels “About six months ago, we had a very opaque understanding of the opposition and now I would say it’s even more opaque,” said General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. Dempsey, who is President Barack Obama’s top uniformed military adviser, said he would also advise extreme caution when deliberating any military options in Syria – saying the conflict posed “the most complex set of issues that anyone could ever conceive, literally.” “I don’t think at this point I can see a military option that would create an understandable outcome,” Dempsey told the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “And until I do, it would be my advice to proceed cautiously.”

Surrounded by children, Syria’s first lady makes rare appearance “The regime is trying to telegraph that it’s business as usual and she is a way to do that,” said Andrew Tabler, an American expert on Syria who once lived in the country and interacted with the first family. “Not only is this a sign that she’s standing by her man, but that the core of the regime is not cracking.” “This stunt shouldn’t disguise the fact that the regime is firing missiles in Damascus at their own population,” Tabler added. “The photos are a gesture of confidence that the international community will not crush them and that (the Assads) will be able to keep hold of some level of control of the country.”

The ‘Oldest City In Human History’ Is On The Verge Of Being Ravaged By War “It will become difficult for the regime to claim to govern Syria if the opposition breaks into downtown Damascus,” Joseph Holliday of Institute for the Study of War concludes in a recent analysis of the regime’s military strategy over the last two years. “Assad is more likely to destroy Damascus than to abandon it to the opposition.”

A Chinese jihadist in Syria? In the YouTube video below, entitled “A message of victory to the people of China from the Mujahidin Brigade Front,” a Chinese man talks about his conversion to Islam. He introduces himself as Yusuf (the subtitles say Bo Wang) and says that he studied in Libya and helped the Libyans fight their “revolutionary” war. “Now I’m in Syria,” he says, as a song that imagines global Islamic dominion plays in the background… The purpose of the video — posted by a YouTube user who reposts jihadist videos — seems to be to allow Bo (if that’s his real name) to threaten China about the cost of its support for Bashar al-Assad’s government. “As a Chinese Muslim, I’d like to deeply apologize” to the Syrian people “in utter misery from the flames of war,” he says. “Also,” he continues, “I am representing all of the Muslims in warning the Chinese government to immediately stop all forms of aid to Bashar, including selling arms to them, including economic aid.” Otherwise, after the victory of the Syrian revolution, “all Islamic countries will join together to implement economic sanctions on China,” he adds. It seems like an odd threat, not to mention an impossible one. One wonders why he didn’t threaten a good old-fashioned terrorist attack.

Syria’s pro-Assad hackers infiltrate Human Rights Watch Web site and Twitter feed

 

Special Reports

Richard Cohen: Does Obama have a plan for Syria? Blowback is now a given. There is no sure way to avoid it, only to contain it. That can be done only by swiftly arming the moderates and pressing for as quick an end to the war as possible. Obama, as president of the United States, is in a position to save lives and avoid a regional calamity. His dithering has only made matters worse. Give the man an umbrella: He’s becoming a latter-day Neville Chamberlain.

Nicholas Burns: Syria is melting away: Obama has no good options, but doing nothing can’t be the answer … if Washington does not join Europe, Turkey, and the Arabs in supplying more decisive military aid to the rebels, it will leave us with the unpalatable option of trying once again to negotiate with a cynical Russian government for a political deal that might end up favoring Assad.

Disarming the Good Guys: Europe figures out its Syrian arms embargo has only helped Assad. Arming the rebels is riskier now that the jihadists are so prominent, but it’s still better than the alternative of a victory for Mr. Assad and his patrons in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. At least without an embargo, France and Britain can start arming some of the good guys.

Syria conflict: from peaceful protest to civil war Two years ago, no-one thought that Syrian citizens would take to the street, shouting out loud calling for freedom and change. The heavy sense of dictatorship and memories of the 1980s made Syrians think the wave of change in the region would never come to their country. But it did happen. At first, people were surprised, but above all shocked that their government would fire on peaceful protesters in Deraa. Every day, the death toll increased and in reaction more people took to the street.

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”

 

Video Highlights

Correction: In the previous update I noted that activists caught “a major explosion on camera. They believe it’s caused by a Scud missile.” I also noted that “It’s not clear where the explosion happened,” because I had my doubts about the video. Well, a friend of mine, who shall remain nameless, just confirmed my doubts by pointing out that the explosion here http://youtu.be/QGMPtxlwuGk happened in Libya http://youtu.be/SjBI7pvIEn4. Sometimes activists exchange videos on social media that prove to be from somewhere else or downright fabricated, I am not always I am not always in a good position to judge on these particular videos, but if the videos become too widespread, I feel obligated to note them.

This newly uploaded video shows scenes from the crackdown on the protesters in Daraa City that took place on March 18, 2011 http://youtu.be/fmhEZjnAPk4

An aerial raid on Baba Amr Neighborhood in Homs City leaves many dead and many house in flames http://youtu.be/Q2D8Bn9dUso , http://youtu.be/nREWH9WI81w Elsewhere in the neighborhood, the clashes continue http://youtu.be/6NfK2nT1XV4

Rebels target Damascus International Airport with their own missile launchers http://youtu.be/3EhZmUkawP0

The site of a car bomb attack in Sitti Zeinab, Damascus City http://youtu.be/GLAfLZK9O5U Clashes in nearby suburb of Bahdaliyeh http://youtu.be/mPsv9R5p9Do

Syrian activists on social media are exchanging this video allegedly showing Iraqi Shiite militias, Liwa Abu Al-Fadel, sending troops to fight against rebels in Syria http://youtu.be/N7KlM7IfpS4 Though the video cannot be authenticated on my end, activists have for months been claiming that Shiite militias from Iraq have been taking active part in the fight against rebels especially, in Deir Ezzor, Homs, Hama and Damascus.

The dead bodies seen here belong to pro-Assad militias in the town of Mayadeen, Deir Ezzor Province, who have been killed by Islamist rebels currently consolidating their hold over the town http://youtu.be/m3_BsB_ZRaA In the nearby town of Aboullayl, pollution resulting from oil fires is causing health problems for the local population http://youtu.be/swAFSCi8lAU The nearby town of Shuhayl, redubbed Al-Nusra by Islamist rebels who took control of it, is being targeted by rockets http://youtu.be/1oLtx2Z1j7w

Battles between rebels and loyalists intensify in Deir Ezzor City: fighters from Jabhat Al-Nusra blow up a security headquarters in the neighborhood of Huwaiqah http://youtu.be/olzR4QZKDsg

Activists claim that this video shows Islamist Sunni rebels forcing a Shia watchman to destroy the minaret of a local Shia school (Husainiyeh) http://youtu.be/zPm1ySN–iQ This does not seem to be a historical building, however, as such this could be one of the new schools that were built in Syria under the rule of Bashar Al-Assad with Iranian funding. It’s not clear, however, where in Syria the incident took place. The video could also be taken from Iraq and recycled here as part of the ongoing Salafi propaganda.