Syria Watch

Syrian Revolution Digest: Tuesday, 4 March 2013

The Other Sequester!

Liberating land without the ability to secure the air makes Syria a disintegrating state. But since no one has any plans for a no-fly zone, a failed state and an imploding region is what we have to contend with for years to come.

Today’s Death Toll: 149 martyrs, including 6 children, 1 woman, and 2 martyrs under torture: 40 martyrs in Damascus and Suburbs, 35 in Raqqa, 25 in Aleppo, 17 in Homs, 12 in Daraa, 10 in Idlib, 6 in Hama, 3 in Deir Ezzor, and 1 in Lattakia (LCCs).

Points of Random Shelling: 395 points, including 1 point shelled by Scud missile, 5 point by regime warplanes. Shelling using cluster bombs was reported in Saraqeb in Idlib, shelling using surface-to-surface missile was reported in 1 point; in addition, 163 points were targeted by shelling using heavy caliber artillery, 119 points using mortars and 105 using rockets (LCCs).

Clashes: 145. Successful operations include the liberation of Raqqa City, tightening siege of the military airports of Minnigh and Kuweiris in Aleppo, liberation of the Haramla checkpoint in the town of Zabadani, Damascus Suburbs, repelling an attack on the town of Daraya, destroying a BMP armored vehicle near Abbasid Square on the road leading to Jobar (LCCs).

 

News

Kerry Criticizes Iran and Russia for Shipping Arms to Syria “There is no guarantee that one weapon or another might not at some point in time fall into the wrong hands,” Mr. Kerry said in a joint news conference in Riyadh with the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal. “But I will tell you this. There is a very clear ability now in the Syrian opposition to make certain that what goes to the moderate, legitimate opposition is, in fact, getting to them, and the indication is that they are increasing their pressure as a result of that.”

Syrians tear down statue of Bashar al-Assad’s father after rebel advance
Footage shows protesters beating gold statue of Hafez al-Assad with shoes in city of Raqqa near Turkish border… The euphoria, however, is brief. A second video taken by activists soon afterwards captures a government mortar landing in the square, followed by thick black smoke. Several dead and injured lie on the ground. Rebels frantically load the wounded, including a woman, into cars as a second mortar drops nearby.

Israel warns it cannot “stand idle” as Syria war spills over border Israeli U.N. Ambassador Ron Prosor wrote to the 15-member council to complain about shells from Syria landing in Israel. “Israel cannot be expected to stand idle as the lives of its citizens are being put at risk by the Syrian government’s reckless actions,” Proser wrote. “Israel has shown maximum restraint thus far.”

IAEA says not yet contacted by Syria rebels about ex-nuclear site he U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has long sought access to a site in Syria’s desert Deir al-Zor region that U.S. intelligence reports say was a nascent, North Korean-designed reactor geared to producing plutonium for nuclear weapons before Israel bombed it in 2007. On February 24, opposition sources in eastern Syria said rebels had captured the destroyed site near the Euphrates River. “Certainly we are aware of the report on (the) rebel group’s offer to invite us to the site of Deir al-Zor but we are not aware of any communication to that effect,” Amano, IAEA director general, told a news conference, referring to a media report last month.

Iraq ambush kills 48 ‘unarmed, wounded’ Syrian soldiers The ambush in Anbar province, a day after a key Syrian opposition group accused Iraq of interfering in Syria, threatens to entangle Baghdad in its neighbour’s civil war — something it has tried hard to avoid. “This confirms our fears of the attempt of some to move the conflict to Iraq, but we will face these attempts by all sides with all of our power,” Ali Mussawi, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s spokesman, said of the ambush.

No endgame in sight for Syria’s civil war Last week’s events provided a glimmer of hope but at this point it’s still difficult to see signs of an endgame in Syria.

Photo Gallery – Syria’s civil war: Images of horror

 

Special Reports

The Prophet of Aleppo: Syria’s leading novelist makes his English-language debut—at last.
Just as the Leader forces crowds into the streets, the Assad regime controlled the masses through fear and intimidation until, nearly two years ago, Syrians resisted and started protesting for reform—only to be shot in the streets. They demanded Assad’s downfall instead. Another word came to Sirees: slavery. “If a slave ran away, his master would find him and kill him,” he said. “The same is happening now. If anyone defects from the Army, from his post, his party—if he defects from the masses—in the mind of the leader, he deserves to be executed.”

Aleppo takes first step toward post-Assad governance in Syria
Syria’s Aleppo Province elected a local council this weekend, replacing an interim local government and taking a step toward restoring some semblance of order to the war-torn province.

Ignatieff: Syria is ‘a dog’s breakfast,’ but inaction is worse
I think there’s a sense everywhere that the stalemate is increasingly bloody, increasingly costly and is really putting the future of Syria as a state at risk. I think the conventional wisdom everywhere is that intervention is risky and may have unintentional consequences. Iraq and Afghanistan have left everybody with a bad taste about intervention. Syria is showing us that doing nothing can be just as bad.

On the border of war
On February 20, an unexploded rocket was found in Hermel’s al-Qasr village, in the eastern Bekaa Valley on the border with Syria. It had allegedly been fired from Syria by the Free Syrian Army rebels to counter an attack from Hezbollah fighters. Two days later, the Free Syrian Army accused Hezbollah of invading villages inside Syria and issued an ultimatum to the Party of God to cease its operations in their country or face attacks on its installations in the Hermel region of Lebanon. The ultimatum did not end with a war between the FSA and Hezbollah. But the stand-off did shed light on a battle between the Syrian rebels and Hezbollah fighters that has been going on for months in Syrian villages in Qusayr area, next to the Lebanese border. A few days after the FSA ultimatum, Hermel was quiet, but residents warned that “many journalists [have been] arrested and expelled from these parts.” A resident told NOW that “Hezbollah is keeping this area under very strict control.”

Syrian rebel leader on need for U.S. aid, path to victory (Video)
Syrian rebel leader General Salim Idris was a general in the army of Syria’s dictator, Bashar al Assad until he defected 10 months ago. He speaks with Margaret Brennan about what anti-regime forces need from the U.S. to bring down Assad.

Syrian colours: the greys
In a town market in Douma – a Damascus suburb under the control of the FSA – some local shopkeepers are seemingly reluctant to take sides in a conflict which has wracked the country for the past two years. Abu Abdo, an elderly shoemaker in his seventies told me his mind when I asked him his opinion: “I just want to live and work so I can feed my family. I don’t care who rules because [whoever comes in] will always be a corrupt hypocrite. Both sides – the regime and the opposition aren’t worth supporting as they both steal and kill. Death, homelessness and destruction is all that we’ve got from them”.

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.

The “Aleppo” Elections
The fact that elections for the new ruling council in Aleppo took place in Gaziantep, Turkey, is in itself a clear indication of the virtual impossibility of establishing the mere semblance of normal governance in any of the liberated territories, so long as the skies are not safe. The elections that took place could not have been in any way shape or form representative of the real communal and political diversity in Aleppo City, and making too much out of it gives too much legitimacy to a group that plans to conduct its affairs on the basis of Sharia law without consulting or paying any difference to the existing civil code. The people did not rise up against the civil code, they rose up against corruption and authoritarianism. The intentions of the people who organized and took part in the elections are probably good, but they are limited by their ideological predilections, limited experience and social backgrounds.

So, let’s not spin this development: it’s actually a sign of how bad things are in Syria today, and a testament to how the international community is facilitating the rise of Islamists, moderates and extremists, through its indifference. Only a no-fly zone can enable people to organize reliable elections in liberated territories, thus ensuring adequate participation and representation. The Islamists might still dominate the political process, considering all that has taken place so far, but there is a difference between a 50% representation and a 90% representation.

Iran calling the shots in Syria
Iran has taken command inside Syria and is maneuvering to create a new leadership structure; in the meantime Assad’s regime has crumbled to merely a façade. Evidence of this can be found most obviously in the 9 January prisoner swap between opposition and regime forces, as well as in the increased role Iran has recently been playing in military planning and operations…

… Further, Iran is building a sectarian Alawite- and Shia-majority militia, Ammar Abdulhamid, a pro-democracy Syrian activist based in Washington DC, and the head of the Tharwa Foundation, tells NOW. Abdulhamid believes this new militia will seek to maintain old alliances with minority communities, loyalist Sunni clans and groups, while attempting to forge new ones in the future among potential ‘rogue’ rebel units who would be more interested in carving out turf for themselves than in the fate of the country.

“At this stage,” adds Abdulhamid, “Assad is a mere placeholder. Despite the all-too-real cult of personality that surrounds Assad in the ranks of the Alawite community, this does not ensure his long-term survival. Iran eventually wants a group that will be beholden to [it] first, not to Assad,” says Abdulhamid.

 

Video Highlights

The “liberation” of Raqqa City

The rebels in charge of the liberation were all members of Jabhat Al-Nusra, Ahrar Al-Sham and the Syrian Islamic Front.

Protesters in Raqqa City bring down a giant statue of Hafiz Al-Assad soon after rebels entered in the city http://youtu.be/85uiTAjIN-A , http://youtu.be/zO2WRlepeKQ , http://youtu.be/85uiTAjIN-A But they soon came under mortar fire from pro-regime forces still active in the outskirts of the city http://youtu.be/leEbu51Et-4 , http://youtu.be/sSojL9Y0cEA The dead and wounded line the streets http://youtu.be/0e1NJyiVGxI

Scenes from the last battles that preceded the liberation of the city: an attack on a local police headquarters (Hajjaneh) http://youtu.be/IA7iwOyDxe4 Rebels claim victory http://youtu.be/f5bgZeZBTXQ Then proceed to liberate another checkpoint inside the City’s perimeters http://youtu.be/WRCRlOf8TMY A victory parade http://youtu.be/GbYn24z06_w , http://youtu.be/28ufMYXkLo0 Rebels take over the local security headquarters http://youtu.be/Ryou6NYqgnE Rebels protest the local archeological museum http://youtu.be/EnbSShfMT54 Then move to secure the Governor’s Palace http://youtu.be/tQyPbCqj2As The Governor, Hassan Salih Jalali, and the local Baath leader are arrested http://youtu.be/T9RJ0fzWiCc

Destroying a picture of Khamenei found in a local security headquarters http://youtu.be/7lgITlPIVmI

Pro-Assad militias are not giving up though, and they have formed their own resistance group to fight back http://youtu.be/MpVOz1zuRRo

In Raqqa’s second largest city of Tabaqa, rebels clash with remnant of the regime forces http://youtu.be/6b4o9Ge44JU , http://youtu.be/fm5UfRormcc

Aleppo – Col. Abdel-Jabbar Al-Oqaidi inspects the siege of Minnigh Airport, Aleppo http://youtu.be/Zmrs4yeegew Rebels continue their siege http://youtu.be/Ucpo4jzLaE0 and prepare for the final assault http://youtu.be/jNvkSA5Ysds Rebels pounding the military airport of Kuweiris http://youtu.be/tb81mcJuB8w

Hassakeh – in the town of Shdadi, Hassakeh Province, rebels bring down the regime’s flags from the local oilfield installation http://youtu.be/Amdxgm3CCtk  and celebrate their victory with Jabhat Al-Nusra cries of “Our eternal leader is our Master Muhammad” http://youtu.be/293s9KeEDUw

Rebels control the Yaroubiya Border Checkpoint with Iraq http://youtu.be/G7GfoUEBAQs

Homs – the attack on the rebel strongholds in central Homs City intensifies http://youtu.be/R4NGYHp1FEk

Syrian Revolution Digest: Sunday 3 March 2013

Please feel free to use this information, including videos, images and commentary, in your coverage of current developments in Syria. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact me at this email: ammar.abdulhamid@gmail.com. The Digest will also be posted on Blogger and Facebook.

 

Syria Über Assad!

Syrian Revolution Digest – March 3, 2013 

Each time he speaks he makes it clear to all that he could never be part of any solution and that he is indeed an impediment that needs to be removed. People like Assad are never more wrong and dangerous than when they are confident. And Assad was confident during his interview with the Times. Too confident. The end is nigh. His, and, for a while, Syria’s. For, irrespective of both Sunni and Alawite beliefs, Assad can never rise again, but Syria… Syria has always been a phoenix: she does not die, she transforms.

 

Sunday March 3, 2013

 

Today’s Death Toll: 154martyrs, including 5 children 12 women, and 2 under torture: 44 martyrs were reported in Damascus and suburbs, 24 in Daraa, 23 in Aleppo,18 in Homs, 11 in Hama, 11 in Lattakia, 11 in Idlib, 10 in Deir Ezzor and 2 martyrs in Raqqa (LCCs).

 

Points of Random Shelling: 370 points: 3 areas were shelled with Scud missiles, and 8 points were shelled with MiG warplanes, cluster bombs strikes were recorded in 3 points, artillery shelling was recorded in 151 points, either mortar shelling was recorded in 110 areas and missile strikes were reported in 95 points in different parts of Syria (LCCs).

 

Clashes: 120. Successful operations include liberation of the Police Academy in Khan Al-Assal in North Aleppo, shooting down a helicopter in Latakia suburbs, and taking control of the Maysaloon-Abassid Square Road in Damascus. In Raqqa, FSA rebels also gained control over Safian oil field and neighboring territories. In Homs, FSA fighters managed to repel an attempt by pro-regime militias to storm rebel strongholds in Khaldiyeh, Bab Houd, and other Old Homs neighborhoods. In Daraa, rebels repelled an attack on Basr Al-Harir. Finally, rebels in Daraya, Jobar and Eastern Ghoutah region in Damascus Suburbs repelled renewed regime attacks on their strongholds (LCCs).

 

News

Opposition leader visits north Syria as rebels seize army post The capture of the police academy at Khan al-Asal, used by Assad’s forces as an artillery base to support troops still holding around 40 percent of the northern city, came after days of fighting in which rebels killed 150 soldiers, while sustaining heavy casualties, they said. In an attempt to consolidate those gains on the ground and strengthen links between Assad’s military and civilian foes, Alkhatib crossed into northern Syria from neighboring Turkey and toured the towns of Jarablus and Minbij. Earlier he attended a meeting of 220 rebel commanders and opposition campaigners in the Turkish city of Gaziantep to elect an administration for Aleppo province, home to 6 million people.

Miles From Home, Syrians Vote In Free Elections The entire election organization moved to southern Turkey over a weekend. An army of activists arrived to set up a media center. A new FM radio station opened to cover the elections through transmitters that reach Aleppo. In an unfurnished apartment, an election center is already bustling. The apartment’s bare rooms look more like a college dorm with floor mattresses, plastic chairs and desks. Computers and cameras are everywhere.

Syria’s Assad is ‘delusional’ says William Hague UK foreign secretary hits back at Bashar al-Assad after Syrian leader accuses Britain of resuming a ‘bullying’ colonial role

Shi’ite fighters rally to defend Damascus shrine The presence of Shi’ite combatants from neighboring states – confirmed by sources in Iraq and Syria and highlighted in videos glorifying their mission – underlines how Syria’s conflict is inflaming sectarian feelings in the region. Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas brigade, named after a seventh century martyr son of Imam Ali who is considered the father of Shi’ite Islam, was formed several months ago and fights mainly around the shrine of Sayyida Zeinab on the southern outskirts of the Syrian capital, a source close to the brigade said.

Syria rebels ‘capture most of police academy’ More than 200 troops and rebels reported killed in fighting for one of last regime bastions in western Aleppo province.

UK: Charities urge BBC to launch emergency appeal for victims of Syria’s war Corporation fears lack of public sympathy for plight of millions may hurt fundraising efforts.

 

Special Reports

Worldview: In Kerry’s ‘big’ Syria offer, a proposal woefully lacking

Those two words sum up the farcical “new” policy toward Syria that Secretary of State John Kerry announced at a Rome meeting with Syrian opposition leaders. In what was ballyhooed as a major breakthrough, the United States will, for the first time, provide aid to the armed Syrian opposition. So what are we giving to help Syrian rebels confront the missiles and bombs that have killed tens of thousands of civilians? Not desperately needed antitank or antiaircraft weapons, but medical aid and MREs, those ready-to-eat-meals used as field rations for American soldiers. Biscuits and Band-Aids to combat Bashar al-Assad’s Scuds.

Expert: Obama ‘uninterested’ in Syria intervention

In response to a question by The Jerusalem Post, asking what the policy of the US should be in Syria, Rabinovich said, “Sneakers on the ground, not boots on the ground.” He explained this by saying US President Barack Obama is not interested in a full-scale military operation and “his new defense secretary is not interested” in one either. He said that by sneakers, he meant special forces combined with supporting those in the opposition that most closely reflect US values, and not the Islamists.

 

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.

 

Quickly Noted

 

Historically speaking, Bashar Al-Assad’s confident tones have always reflected the weakness of western policies vis-à-vis his regime. So long as the West dithers, Assad, backed by Iran and Russia, will kill with impunity, while lecturing the world, and his victims, on morality and patriotism.

 

Robert Fisk gets it wrong, again: It’s not the West that is drawn maps this time around, it’s the Assad regime, Iran and Russia. Instead of watching what pundits are saying on Western media, Fisk should watch the events unfolding on the ground, the patterns of ethnic cleansing, Hezbollah’s involvement, the rising sectarian aspect of the entire unfolding. Robert Fisk’s orientalism is no less pronounced than that of Henri Lammens.

 

Video Highlights

 

Opposition leader Sheikh Moaz Alkhatib pays a visit to the towns of Jarablos and Manbij in North Aleppo http://youtu.be/LKGdLOD1De8 Singing with the rebels http://youtu.be/yUDv0KWSwJg Shortly after Sheikh Alkhatib left Manbij, a Scud paid her a visit http://youtu.be/eYEQX7tI9EI

 

Rebels confirm the liberation of the Police Academy in Khan Al-Assal, North Aleppo http://youtu.be/fT8BSq1UgX4 Scenes from after the liberation http://youtu.be/II-5Zj2JY-s , http://youtu.be/A2DTAppexSU , http://youtu.be/ZMsfkjlwHH8 Rebels used their own tanks in the battle http://youtu.be/KPnO84V7IGs Scenes from the final clashes http://youtu.be/_TT566FweFM

 

Another leaked video showing the launch of a Scud missile http://youtu.be/F_uFvU3SKs8 Two Scuds fired simultaneously http://youtu.be/M0ih0HezdT0 A scud missile falls without exploding on the town of Al-Muwailih in Deir Ezzor Province http://youtu.be/gW1oVnCdoGo

 

Rebels wrest control of another checkpoint on the outskirts of Raqqah City http://youtu.be/fpkIAZ85-sw A tanks confiscated by rebels after taking control of the Central Prison in Raqqah http://youtu.be/WbPlMRpBxng

 

The battle for control of Old Homs neighborhoods intensify http://youtu.be/dbQv7zINUNg So does the bombing campaign http://youtu.be/PHZTcheA0W8 , http://youtu.be/VTiN-RNh08I The red circle in the map below point out roughly the besieged rebel strongholds. It’s been almost 18 months since the siege began.

 

 

 

The last clip shot by activist Jameel Omayrah in Jobar Neighborhood, Damascus, before his martyrdom http://youtu.be/4NITwK6Ae78 The nearby town of Douma gets pounded http://youtu.be/bEVBPuVijoo Searching for the dead and wounded http://youtu.be/SMyqeJOt6do

 

Leaders of the Free Syrians Army, including Col. Riyad Al-Ass’aad and his deputies pay a visit to the liberated village of Burj Al-Kassab in the Turkmen Mountain in North Latakia http://youtu.be/Wz3BCbdr4Gs Talking with the locals http://youtu.be/zohLcdt5mZc Making the rounds http://youtu.be/dzw7X57U_qI Rebels in Latakia treat their wounded from a recent battle http://youtu.be/ANLYaSU4Utw

 

This Week in Syria Deeply: 3 March 2013

Syrian Revolution Digest: Friday 1 March 2013

The Cauldron!

Today’s rallies took place under the slogan “One Nation, One Flag, One War” – but the Nation in question is not Syria, rather, it’s the Islamic Nation, the flag is not the independence flag chosen by the early protest leaders but Al-Qaeda’s infamous black flag, and the War is not one for the liberation of Syria but one for the restoration of the Caliphate system! The extremists are gaining more and more grounds by the day in Syria. With its reluctance to intervene, the U.S. has already bungled the job there at the expense of $350 million to the American taxpayer in addition to the newly promised 60. The cost to Syrians is immeasurable. This wrong cannot be righted with halfhearted measures. But is it even perceived as a wrong? If not, what’s the point in suggesting remedies? If there is any silver-lining here, it’s found in the refusal by most protesters today to actually abandon the independence flag. The extremists managed to impose their slogan on today’s rallies, but they didn’t succeed in imposing their interpretation and message. The moderates remain in the majority and they are fighting back. But time does not seem to be on their side, especially if they continue to be left alone.

 

Today’s Death Toll: 125 martyrs, including 13 children 11 women and 1 martyr under torture. 54 in Aleppo, 45 in Damascus and Suburbs, 9 in Daraa, 6 in Homs, 3 in Hama, 3 in Idlib, 3 in Deir Ezzor, 1 in Raqqa and 1 in Qouniter (LCCs).

Points of Random Shelling: 324 points, including 11 point were shelled using warplanes; 2 using Scud missiles; 4 points using explosive barrels; 1 point was shelled using cluster bombs; artillery shelling was reported in 124 points; mortar shelling in 95 points and rocket shelling in 87 all around Syria (LCCs).

Clashes: 114. Successful FSA operations include bringing down a fighter jet in Aleppo, taking over the Yarobiya Checkpoint along the Syrian-Iraqi border to the northeast, and attacking a loyalist barracks in Eastern Khirbet Ghazaleh in Daraa(LCCs).

 

News

Assad forces take Aleppo village, reopening supply line The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the capture of Tel Shghaib marked the last step to creating a land supply route north into Aleppo from Hama province, crucial for Assad’s forces who have lost control of part of the main north-south highway. Rebels say they hold most of the city itself and nearly all the rural hinterland. But they have been unable to achieve a decisive victory and complain that they are outgunned and vulnerable to Assad’s air force, artillery and ballistic missiles, which killed dozens of people in Aleppo last week.

Syria risks “dissolution”, U.N. chief says He said the situation in Syria was deteriorating by the day after almost two years of conflict in which 70,000 people have died, but there was now a slim chance for peace talks. “This is a very small window of opportunity which we strongly support and encourage them to use that. The opportunity may soon close,” Ban said at a news conference in Geneva.

Syria crisis: European countries expected to start arming rebels Syrian opposition representative in UK says ‘breakthrough’ is expected after relaxation of EU rules.

Kremlin says Putin, Obama seek “new initiatives” on Syria “The presidents have instructed (Lavrov and Kerry) to continue active contacts focused on working out possible new initiatives aimed at a political settlement of the crisis (in Syria),” the Kremlin said in a statement.

Are Syria’s pro-Assad hackers up to something more nefarious? So what, exactly, does the Syrian Electronic Army hope to achieve? Some believe the answer may be something more insidious than the group’s stated purpose of “show[ing] the world the truth about the ‘Syria Revolution.’”… The Post’s James Ball has suggested that pro-government hackers have actually begun acting as a sort of quasi-intelligence unit, “using the Internet to uncover members of the opposition” by advertising fake Facebook and Skype software that is embedded with spyware.

U.S. aid to Syria should be “non-lethal,” new Pentagon chief says New U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said on Friday he believed U.S. policy of giving only “non-lethal support” to Syria’s opposition was the correct one.

Scud missile fired in Syria lands near Iraqi village: mayor “A Russian-made Scud landed near the village of Yoush Tapa, 3 km from the Iraqi-Syrian border between Telafar and Baaj,” said Abdul Aal Abbas, the mayor of Telafar. “There were no casualities or damage, but it created fear among the Turkuman population of that village and they fled their houses”. Nineveh governorate spokesman Qahtan Sami said security forces had also said the rocket was of Russian provenance.

Desperate Situation in Syria: The Regional Director for the Middle East of the IRC talks about the conflict in Syria and the awful conditions that people are living in (Video).

 

Special Reports

In Syria, the U.S. Makes a Move
This is a hydra-headed war, a bit like a high-stakes poker game, and the best Washington can likely do is take a deep breath and sit down at the table to try its hand, hoping to make some profit by doing so and not lose the family farm in the process. Given the U.S. role in the world, there is no real option but to play, because out of Syria’s mess will come some kind of new reckoning between the world’s powers where everyone’s leverage lies in the new Middle East. The Russians have staked their bets, and, in their own way, the Chinese, the Iranians, the Turks, and the Saudis have, too. So has everyone else in the neighborhood, even the small fry. The result is a bloody stalemate. For better or worse, everyone is looking to the Americans to tip the balance, because that is the role that a superpower, still in the game, is expected to play. This is not about what’s right so much as it is about the game. If the Americans want the outcome to favor them and their allies they must try to help mold it. Direct aid may have its risks, but no move at all means losing, too.

U.S. Steps Up Aid, But Syria’s Rebels Want Arms
The U.S. has declined to supply the rebels with the heavier weaponry that could help neutralize the regime’s advantages in air power, armor and artillery, and is widely reported to have also restrained many of its allies from doing so. Still, Saudi Arabia has reportedly recently managed to supply some rebel forces with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, and has openly agitated for the West to do the same. But the Administration sees arming the rebels — a plethora of small armed groups, some of the most effective among them being jihadists, and lacking a single overarching chain of command or political leadership — as a risky bet.

Syria solution – strategic attacks by West
Why couldn’t NATO forces take on targeted attacks like that to hasten Assad’s fall from power? (A transitional government and U.N. peacekeeping force would have to be ready, waiting.) Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican, is calling for using cruise missiles to destroy Syrian aircraft on runways.

Weighing U.S. Intervention: Syria v. Congo
Using the Bosnia precedent, and allowing for a population four times its size, up to 200,000 foreign troops could be needed in a post-war stabilization effort – if only for a time. But if their focus were on policing ceasefire lines, the number might be cut in half, with the U.S. share perhaps 20,000.

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.

In Syria, Death is the New Normal
Below is my article at the Freedom Collection Website. I have to apologize to my Syrian readers in particular for not drawing a rosy picture in it or any of my recent writings, I prefer to describe reality and deal with it as it is in order to see what can be done to change it. For me, romantic notions don’t give me the necessary will or tools to do that. They might work for other people, but they don’t work for me. After all, I am not motivated by faith, but by a mixture of dutifulness and personal obsession, for better or worse.

As we approach the second anniversary of the Syrian Revolution, it’s important to remember a simple truth, if for no other reason than out of respect for all who have died or continue to suffer:

Although the revolution has unleashed one of the most brutal post-Cold War conflicts, it began as a peaceful protest movement calling for democratic reform. However, the massive crackdown ordered by the Assad regime, the inaction of Western leaders, and the political ineptness of the Syrian opposition have gradually transformed this nonviolent protest movement into a full-fledged civil war that has devastated the country.

In its current condition Syria is no longer a viable state, and no political settlement seems conceivable at this stage. Though the civil war remains asymmetric with the bulk of the massacres being perpetrated by regime-linked militias, extremist groups (including some with Al-Qaeda connections) are proliferating on the side of rebel forces. Over the preceding year, the struggle between the two sides has been transformed into an identity conflict and a veritable holy war ruling out the possibility of compromise. Law and order has broken down across the country, except in a few pockets along the coast, in Kurdish-majority areas in the north and northeast, and in the Druze-majority province of Suweida in the South. With the introduction of Scud missiles to pound rebel-held territories alongside fighter jets, the nihilistic dimension involved in the conflict can no longer be ignored.  I fear the fate of the country has been irrevocably sealed.

The Syrian National Coalition’s near boycott of the Friends of Syria meeting in Rome and of their scheduled meetings in Moscow and Washington underscores the point that politics in the current context have been rendered irrelevant. The world can either intervene to put a forceful end to this tragedy, irrespective of the risks involved, or it can choose to maintain course and watch Syria implode perhaps seeking to alleviate some of the suffering.

The problem with the latter approach, beyond the grave humanitarian implications, is that it ignores the potential for spillover into neighboring countries and across the region. It also ignores the security ramifications of seeing various Syrian regions become havens for new Jihadi terrorist groups. More importantly, with so many autocratic regimes around the world facing the potential for similar revolutions, inaction by the international community against the Assad regime’s atrocities sends the wrong message to tyrants worldwide.

Meanwhile, in Syria’s quest for liberty or death, we are likely to see more death than liberty for years to come.

 

Video Highlights

The intermixing of the flags, as we see in the protest rally in Manbij, Aleppo, is a clear indication that the battle for the soul of Syria, and its majority Sunni-community in this case, is far from over http://youtu.be/_MphSpnG3sA the intermixing was seen in many communities: Massakin Hanano, Aleppo http://youtu.be/wtF0MiyTgbIBoustan Al-Qasr, Aleppo City http://youtu.be/hby0buKC17o Alboukamal, Deir Ezzor http://youtu.be/yEszBeD3HlE Kafrenbel, Idlib http://youtu.be/Iex1xos-SvQ

But we can already see pockets of extremists emerging in different parts of the country, in the town of Maarabah in Daraa Province for instance, extremists seems to have taken over with some popular backing http://youtu.be/V9ZPnrg_oU8 InDouma, Damascus Suburbs, the black flags intermixed with the white flags of the extremist Islamist party Hizb Al-Tahrir http://youtu.be/-LRmVQ06-bw Same in Old Homs, Homs City http://youtu.be/arle-TNDlhk , http://youtu.be/zIzRFPw-qUE But in Al-Waer Neighborhood there is some intermixing http://youtu.be/m2Vni02LZhA

In the town of Binnish, Idlib, despite the presence of some independence flags, the speaker was chanting for the Caliphate. The town has been taken over by extremists belonging to Jabhat Al-Nusra and Ahrar Al-Sham but not all inhabitants are happy with this http://youtu.be/1P1xIi6M_jE

All three flags made their appearance in the town of Yabroud, Damascus Suburbshttp://youtu.be/KfvZPv-5NQk

But in the majority of rallies that took place today, the black flag was completely absent: Kafar Zeiteh, Hama http://youtu.be/IE9hOVu7Gmk Tawhid Street, Hama City http://youtu.be/FYooyh-IwKU Sarmada, Idlibhttp://youtu.be/I8D5TASuLR4 Houleh, Homs http://youtu.be/zTigj76OEOUBouqrous, Deir Ezzor Province http://youtu.be/C74wWSHFSfA Babbila, Damascus Suburbs http://youtu.be/DJRFV7p5ip4 Bayanoun, Aleppohttp://youtu.be/qlzMKGwuQkQ Al-Kashif, Daraa City http://youtu.be/xfKClZ7wfO0Bza’ah, Aleppo http://youtu.be/QyV-_mqL_cs Ellatamneh, Hamahttp://youtu.be/o4rMt3F7yzw El-Bab, Aleppo http://youtu.be/ElBgO_R9je0Maarrat Masreen, Idlib http://youtu.be/AqcYgI7W2Ps

Of course, in Kurdish-majority areas, such as in Salhiyeh, Al-Hassakeh Province, the independence flags intermixed with Kurdish flags and people didn’t even raise today’s slogan http://youtu.be/urRxJpMxySU Same in Al-Qamishlyhttp://youtu.be/t7pqiSJnzVY

Elsewhere, the battles and the bombing continued: Zamalka, Damascus Suburbs MiGs take part in the pounding http://youtu.be/8n-lt5UMT3I , http://youtu.be/FXm-MVJFPCA , http://youtu.be/yYKidTON1ZU

Clashes between loyalist militias and rebel groups continued across the country: Old Aleppo, Aleppo city http://youtu.be/5UUNxqNgRNE , http://youtu.be/hi3dsva9dZ8Daraa Al-Balad, Daraa City http://youtu.be/RgLAjeOo2n8

Syrian Revolution Digest: Thursday 28 February

How about a Mojito!

Syrian Revolution Digest – February 28, 2013 

Russian leader Vladimir Putin says that discussing Syria with French President Francois Hollande over a bottle of vodka could lead to a softening of his stand on the matter. President Hollande suggested Port instead. Now let me suggest Mojito as a nice compromise solution, if I may? Then let me also ever so politely suggest that both leaders go stuff themselves. As our country and our people bleed, having two foreign leaders engage in such meaningless banter is nothing less than scandalous.  

 

Thursday February 28, 2013

 

Today’s Death Toll: 98 martyrs, including 4 women and 5 children, and 18 martyrs under torture: 35 martyrs were reported in Damascus and suburbs, 33 in Aleppo, 9 in Hama, 8 in Daraa, 6 in Idlib, 4 in Deir Ezzor and 1 martyr in each of Qunaitra, Homs and Latakia (LCCs).

 

Points of Random Shelling: 268 points, including 7 points were shelled using warplanes, 2 points using Scud missiles, artillery shelling was reported in 107 points, mortar shelling in 83 points, and rocket shelling in 71 points all around Syria (LCCs).

 

Clashes: 94. Successful FSA operations include targeting loyalist bases on top of Mount Qasayoun, Damascus and shelling of a loyalist camp in Nayraib, Idlib. In Aleppo, FSA rebels inched towards Sabaa Bahrat Square after intense clashes with pro-regime forces (LCCs).

 

News

£1bn pledged in aid to Syria fails to materialise Gulf countries and other states including the UK pledged the money at a donor conference in Kuwait last month.

Syria Rebels Seek Premier-in-Waiting as U.S. Steps Up Support It’s not clear when the meeting, originally scheduled for March 2, will take place. The coalition said on its Facebook page yesterday that it has been delayed for “logistical reasons.”

Putin Signals Russia Can Be More Flexible on Syria “We should listen to the opinion of our partners on some of the aspects of that difficult problem,” Putin told reporters. “It seems to me that we would need to sit over a bottle of vodka — a bottle of good wine wouldn’t be enough — to sort things out. We would need to sit down and think it over.” Hollande responded jokingly that he would prefer port.

Syria refugees threaten Lebanon’s stability: interior minister The minister, Marwan Charbel, has said Syrian rebels have set up training camps in Lebanon. In addition, members of the rebel Free Syrian Army have used Lebanon’s mountainous terrain to regroup before staging attacks on the Syrian army across the poorly demarcated border. “What is concerning me is the security situation,” Charbel said at a joint news conference with the United Nations Development Programme. “Who is exploiting (the Syrian refugees)? Who is arming them? We are not controlling them.”

Croatia Withdrawing Soldiers from U.N. Force on Israel-Syria Frontier Croatia has nearly 100 soldiers serving with the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, which is responsible for maintaining the fragile calm between Israeli and Syrian troops at the demilitarized zone along Syria’s Golan frontier that was established after a cease-fire ended the 1973 war. The decision to withdraw the soldiers from the area came after The New York Times reported on Monday that Saudi Arabia had underwritten a large purchase of infantry arms in Croatia. Croatia has denied selling weapons to either Saudi Arabia or the Syrian rebels. But Mr. Milanovic said t reports of the sales had put Croatian soldiers at risk and that he was compelled to withdraw them because their safety could no longer be assured.

Syria protests Israel’s approval for oil drilling In letters sent to the U.N. Security Council and the U.N. secretary general Thursday, the Syrian Foreign Ministry called the decision a “blatant violation” of U.N. resolutions and Syria’s sovereignty… On Feb. 21, Israel said it had issued a permit for the American-Israeli company Genie Energy to drill for oil on the plateau. Syria alleges that Israel is trying to consecrate its occupation of Syrian territory and steal its resources.

Syria retains senior post at U.N. committee responsible for ‘decolonizing’ American Samoa Yes, the same Syrian government that has killed thousands of civilians in a brutal civil war was just reappointed to a senior position at a United Nations committee in charge of “decolonizing,” among other places, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam and American Samoa.

 

Special Reports

BBC Radio: The Alawis

The government of President Assad of Syria is under threat. So too is the secretive Shia sect known as the Alawis – or Alawites – to which he and many of the governing party and security officials belong.

Hostility towards the minority Alawi population is such that one leading commentator predicts they are likely to be the victims of the world’s next genocide. Presenter Owen Bennett Jones investigates the Alawis’ origins, history and culture and asks how these once marginalised people came to power in a Sunni majority state. He discovers that for many their fortunes changed fifty years ago when the Baath party seized power in a coup d’etat. Alawis were dominant among the army officers who took control. They set about modernising the country and rolling out a secular agenda. Now, as Syria’s revolution has morphed into a civil war, many Alawis believe their only choice is to kill or be killed. Are the majority of Alawis right to be convinced that the Assad regime is all that stands between them and a return to second-class status, or worse? If the opposition wins in Syria, are warnings about pogroms against the Alawis alarmist, or inevitable?

In a pickle: Lebanon’s Shia leaders are not sure what to do about Syria

This is increasing tensions in fractious Lebanon. Its population is bitterly divided over the war in Syria, causing Hizbullah’s popularity to plummet. Having experienced their own 15-year civil war, most Lebanese fear being dragged into Syria’s conflict.

Another Problem in Syria: How Do Kurds Fit In? A major Kurdish group opens talks with the leading Syrian opposition groups. Will this pave the way to a unified Syria after Assad?

Salih Muslim, the leader of the biggest Syrian Kurdish Party, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), has opened up the possibility that people of Rojava might join the struggle of their fellow Syrians and work toward a more unified transfer of power in post-Assad Syria. Muslim met with leaders of the Syrian National Coalition on Wednesday in Cairo to discuss joining the umbrella organization of opposition groups.

It’s Too Late To Stop Syria Disintegrating

As we watch and they die, as we did 20 years ago with Bosnia, I am reminded that conscience, at the collective level demanded for state action, usually kicks in when it is much too late — not just to spare individual tragedies on a grand scale, but also to preserve the territorial integrity of disintegrating multi-ethnic states. Looking at the Middle East, there is not much in terms of borders that makes sense — they neither reflect national divisions, nor religious ones. They are lines in the sand — the legacy of a rapacious colonial era kept together after the colonial powers left by even more rapacious dictators.

Dreams deferred: The life and death of a veterinarian-turned-rebel fighter in Syria

As the violence deepened into a civil war, Qadi worked as a medic but later took up arms when his brother was killed, becoming a field commander. Qadi was leading fighters into battle against the government forces when I met him on two occasions last year, a 25-year-old who was swept up in events he didn’t quite understand and didn’t expect to survive.

Direct US aid to Syria’s rebels: Why now – and is it too late?

The US decision to give direct aid to Syria’s rebels (but still no weapons) is too little, too late – unlikely either to speed President Assad’s departure or to boost US influence over the conflict, say many experts.

Will limited US aid to Syria rebels hasten the end of war, or prolong it?

The US has promised to do a lot more to help Syria’s rebellion against the government of Bashar al-Assad, but is stopping well short of the kind of aid that might prove decisive.

Syrians are receiving US aid – they just don’t know it

The widespread perception among Syrians that the US has abandoned them is untrue, but US aid is rarely branded as such and it is still far short of what is needed.

How the Graffiti Boys ignited the Syrian Revolution

So Syria, you see, is probably the Arab Left’s last chance at having a revolution free from religion. This is most likely the reason for their opposition to the revolution from the very outset because they knew for sure that it would carry a strong religious flavour. Well, sorry to disappoint them. I crossed the length and breadth of Syria shortly before the revolution and saw most communities, Christian and Muslim alike, holding tight to their faith. Whatever shape their revolution will take, the future will be dominated by believers.

 

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.

 

The Economist’s Syria cover: A more optimistic version

 

NOT everyone agreed with our Syria cover last week. It illustrated the gradual destruction of the country that is the result of the war between President Bashar Assad and the rebels trying to oust him. One aspect of the country that has not been destroyed is the creativity. On February 25th Wissam al-Jazairy, a young Syrian graphic designer took the cover to task. His extended design showing the reconstruction of the country when the war ends went viral. “The cover carried a very bleak idea of the situation in Syria,” said Mr Jazairy. “True, there is fighting between people but this is war and death is the blood tax in order to reach a better future.” But he remains optimistic, mostly because of what he describes as the peacefulness of the Syrian people. “We started our revolution for a life and freedom and justice and equality,” he said. “As Abu al-Kacem Chebbi [a Tunisian poet] said: ‘If, one day, a people want to live, then fate must respond to them’.”

 

Video Highlights

 

Rebels in the town of Talbisseh, Homs Province, claim that they are being targeted by pro-regime militias using these missiles, which, they claim, are made in the U.S.http://youtu.be/swjafC7wHlQ

 

The pounding of the town of Rastan, Homs Province, continueshttp://youtu.be/rPDMISYE8JM

 

The pounding of rebel strongholds in Homs City continues http://youtu.be/-0QXZbgeb1w

 

In Aleppo City, another activist inadvertently captures his final momentshttp://youtu.be/5cLGeZroFOE

 

Rebels in Damascus target a loyalist checkpoint on top of Mount Qasayounhttp://youtu.be/n2JjyEXg66c

 

Rebels in Dmeir, Damascus Suburbs, find these bloated bodies belonging to victims who were obviously summarily executed http://youtu.be/s5-mdDzgQig

 

Pro-Assad militias pound rebel strongholds in Jobar Neighborhood, Damascus Cityhttp://youtu.be/HdOdn_tOU4A

 

Rebels in Idlib, secure the defection of hundreds of soldiers from Damascushttp://youtu.be/Sf0CE61rzUU

 

Evidence of the use of incendiary cluster bombs in the pounding of Saraqib, Idlibhttp://youtu.be/JVaTsNSx0ro

 

In the Druze-majority province of Suwaida, more and more young activists are taking the streets showing their solidarity with their fellow revolutionaries across Syria in a manner reminiscent of the old nonviolent days of the protest movement http://youtu.be/dCLJ4SQ17QE ,http://youtu.be/kJNUROXtS2U Of course, the regime has made a choice so far to refrain from using excessive violence to quell these rallies, just as it did in Kurdish-majority areas to keep the situation localized. For their part, the Druzes are unlikely to willingly turn violent in order to preserve their own one and only town in the country.