Chaos Unleashed!

Syrian Revolution Digest – February 10, 2013 

In a stalemate, chaos is the sole victor. For stalemate is an illusion behind which reality quietly crumbles, and when it’s finally shed, a million hungry flesh-eating zombies arise out of its fragments. This Armageddon is all too real, all too Syrian, and all too… familiar. Unless something deep inside our minds clicks, this cycle of mayhem will keep repeating. If part of the blame can rightly be ascribed to ill-suited policies on part of regional and international leaders, the situation remains for the most part the product of our own failings.

 

Sunday February 10, 2013

 

Today’s Death Toll: 124 martyrs, including 11 women and 9 children. 38 in Damascus and Damascus Suburbs, 33 in Aleppo, 24 in Deir Ezzor, mostly were field executed in Jubeileh neighborhood; 9 in Homs; 10 in Daraa; 5 in Hama; 4 in Idlib and 1 in Raqqa (LCCs).

 

Points of Random Shelling: 326 points, including 19 points that were shelled by warplanes; 3 point using cluster bombs and with vacuum bombs, and 2 points with explosive barrels; 97 points were shelled with mortar, 152 points with heavy caliber artillery, and 77 points with rockets (LCCs).

 

Clashes: 149 locations (LCCs).

 

News

Damascus on Edge as War Seeps into Syrian Capital Soldiers have swept through city neighborhoods, making arrests ahead of a threatened rebel advance downtown, even as opposition fighters edge past the city limits, carrying mortars and shelling security buildings. Fighter jets that pounded the suburbs for months have begun to strike Jobar, an outlying neighborhood of Damascus proper, creating the disturbing spectacle of a government’s bombing its own capital.

Opposition “would talk to Assad in northern Syria” The aim of the talks would be to find a way for Assad to leave power with the “minimum of bloodshed and destruction”, Alkhatib said in a statement published on his Facebook page. Sources in the coalition, an umbrella group of opposition political forces, said that Alkhatib, a moderate cleric from Damascus, met international Syria envoy Lakhdar Brahimi in Cairo on Sunday…  The sources said that in their talks on Sunday the two men addressed the question of whether the coalition would formally endorse Alkhatib’s peace initiative. The Muslim Brotherhood, which controls a large bloc within the Islamist-dominated coalition, is against the initiative. But the Brotherhood, the only organized political force in the opposition, is unlikely to challenge Alkhatib’s authority directly, with his initiative gaining popularity in Syria, the sources said.

Iran and Hezbollah build militia networks in Syria in event that Assad falls, officials say The militias are fighting alongside Syrian government forces to keep Assad in power. But officials think Iran’s long-term goal is to have reliable operatives in Syria in case the country fractures into ethnic and sectarian enclaves. A senior Obama administration official cited Iranian claims that Tehran was backing as many as 50,000 militiamen in Syria. “It’s a big operation,” the official said. “The immediate intention seems to be to support the Syrian regime. But it’s important for Iran to have a force in Syria that is reliable and can be counted on.” Iran’s strategy, a senior Arab official agreed, has two tracks. “One is to support Assad to the hilt, the other is to set the stage for major mischief if he collapses.”

Syria’s Chemical Weapons Stockpiles Appear Secure, Dempsey Says “On the occasions when we have noted movement, they’ve been movements that appeared to us to be intended to secure them, not to use them,” Dempsey said in a session with reporters on his aircraft returning from Afghanistan. He added that “our ability to have a completely clear understanding is somewhat limited. We don’t have persistent or perfect visibility on” that nation’s chemical weapons intentions.

Iran: Syria’s Assad Regime Ready To Negotiate Iran’s foreign minister says two sides will have to talk after an opposition leader said he was open to meeting regime officials.

Deckchairs reshuffled as Bashar al-Assad founders Mr Assad changed seven ministers, the official SANA news agency reported. He split the labour and social affairs ministry into two, bringing in a woman, Kinda Shmat, to head the latter. Hassan Hijazi becomes Labour Minister. Ismail Ismail takes the finance portfolio and Sleiman Abbas takes the oil and mineral resources job. The housing and urban development, agriculture and public works ministers also changed. Mr Assad has reshuffled the government several times since the uprising against his rule began in March 2011, the most recent reshuffle being in August, following the defection of former premier Riad Hijab.

Israeli newspaper claims to have interview Syrian opposition leader Sheik Khatib found himself fending off critics from within the anti-Assad movement who objected to his even speaking with an Israeli reporter, though by all accounts he did not initially realize that Mr. Bergman was an Israeli.

Lebanon’s Christian Patriarch prays for peace in Syria Rai, whose church has 900,000 members in Lebanon, a quarter of the country’s population, is on the first visit to Syria by a Maronite Patriarch since the independence of neighboring Lebanon in 1943. His visit comes at a time when Christians in the region feel under threat from the rise of political Islam. “(I pray) that the consciences of local, regional and international leaders are inspired to put an immediate end to the war in dear Syria … and bring peace through dialogue,” he told dozens of worshippers inside the church.

Israeli strike in Syria might be first in series Amos Yadlin, a former chief of Israeli military intelligence who directs the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said in an interview that while future Israeli action could be expected, it would depend on specific calculations of the advantages and risks of such strikes.

Syrian troops, rebels clash over Damascus highway

Rebels have been on the offensive in Damascus since launching a series of attacks on government positions on Wednesday. They brought their fight to within a mile of the heart of the capital on Friday, seizing army checkpoints and cutting a key highway as they pressed their campaign for the city, the seat of President Bashar Assad’s power.

Lebanon: We’re disassociating ourselves from what’s going on in Syria

On this week’s show, Fareed hears from Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati about Syria policy during a panel of Arab leaders at the World Economic Forum’s Davos meeting. “We are disassociating ourselves from what’s going on in Syria by all means.  We are disassociating because we have a kind of historical, geographical relations with Syria. And now, today, if we take any position, really, we would be more boosting the division in our Lebanese society and between Lebanese citizens. For this reason, we had the position as the Lebanese government to disassociate ourselves. But this doesn’t mean that we disassociate ourselves from humanitarian issues. “Today, we are helping and receiving Syrians without any limit. And why fully we are ensuring for them shelter, medical care, schooling, food – everything.”

 

Special Reports

A Faceless Teenage Refugee Who Helped Ignite Syria’s War

… this young man carries a burden — maybe an honor, too — that almost no one else shares. He knows that he and his friends helped start it all. They ignited an uprising. It began simply enough, inspired not so much by political activism as by teenage rebellion against authority, and boredom. He watched his cousin spray-paint the wall of a school in the city of Dara’a with a short, impish challenge to President Bashar al-Assad, a trained ophthalmologist, about the spreading national revolts. “It’s your turn, doctor,” the cousin wrote.

Al Khatib: Syria’s new kingpin

Although not a polished performer in the political arena, he has managed to install himself in a pivotal role at the centre of the Syrian crisis

Syrian army in Homs is showing strains of war

But they told CNN that, despite enduring many casualties, their morale has not flagged. Though Homs has been the site of urban combat for two years, the soldiers — from the front line to checkpoints — appeared largely combat-ready.

THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN: Any Solution to Syria?

Syria is Iraq’s twin. The only way you’ll get a multisectarian transition there is with a U.N. resolution backed by Russia and backed by a well-armed referee on the ground to cajole, hammer and induce the parties to live together.

Sectarian lines in Syria highlight Sunni-Shia divide

A Muslim summit revealed the sectarian nature of Assad’s Shia Alawite suppression of Sunni protestors and rebels

Homs’ displaced residents begin to return after year of sustained bombing

Syrian city is guarded about relative calm as governor calls for unity against al-Qaida and intense fighting continues elsewhere

Strains Blunt Rebel Gains in Aleppo

With the battle for Aleppo in its seventh month, a series of rebel gains that many locals believe should add up to sustainable military successes appear to have become bogged down. Roughly five million of the province’s six million people now live in territory governed by rebels and local civilian councils, said council and rebel leaders. The rest live in the city’s west, across a jagged front line. About a dozen main rebel factions operate in Aleppo, their names scrawled on pavement and half-collapsed buildings. Many, like the Tawhid Brigade, are torn by infighting. Factions are often alienated from each other by larger ideological divisions. And because nearly all of the fighters hail from the countryside outside Aleppo or beyond, they often also struggle to find common ground with, or cede leadership roles to, local civilians. Regime warplanes bomb rebel territory daily, the government’s so-far unbeatable air power serving as a further reminder of the limits to rebel control.

The New Arab Cold War and the Struggle for Syria

In his classic study, The Arab Cold War, Malcolm Kerr charted the machinations of inter-Arab politics during an era dominated by Egypt’s President Gamal Abdel Nasser. In another renowned work, The Struggle for Syria, Patrick Seale documented the links between Syria’s tumultuous domestic politics and the broader contest for supremacy in the region, stemming from factors ranging from inter-Arab conflicts to the global cold war. [1] Today, amid the chaos in Syria and the transformations in the region, these texts, both originally published in 1965, seem all too contemporary. Once again, regional politics shows many signs of an Arab cold war and, once again, that broader conflict is manifesting itself in a struggle for Syria.

Will Syria Become An Islamist State?

Regardless of what might come after Assad, many minorities have already made up their mind about what they will do if he falls. “We’re leaving,” said Hanan, a grandmother and a devout Shiite who lives in an affluent Damascus neighborhood. “Because we know that whoever takes the rein after Assad will commit massacres against us.” Shiites are a small minority in Syria. Many religious minorities share Hanan’s fears. This is particularly true of the Alawites, the sect to which Assad belongs… as Syria’s uprising turned civil war drags on, militancy among the fighters has continued to grow. “In the end, those with guns will rule, at least initially,” said another activist. “They’ll be hardened and vengeful after all this fighting. And Assad’s mythology may turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy after all.”

Obama’s hidden nonplan to arm rebels in Syria

News that Obama vetoed a plan by his senior security staff to arm Syrian rebels reveals the extent of his humanitarian impulse. But he must also protect the new UN doctrine of a ‘responsibility to protect’ by being more open about his Syrian strategy.

 

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”

 

Did the CIA Betray Syria’s Rebels? Mike Giglio of News week argues that when “Americans didn’t keep promises” the made to opposition leaders, the latter “turned against the U.S.”

 

True. But the antagonism is not absolute or irrevocable. All depends on whether President Obama will change course soon. Meanwhile, the entire development should be seen in context of the Clinton-Petraeus Plan that was shot down by President Obama. People who made the initial contact with rebel leaders had to halt their activities when President Obama and his closer circles of advisers rejected the Clinton-Petraeus Plan. Rebel leaders are not exactly privy to the complexity of American decision-making processes, and not matter how much, their CIA interlocutors must tried to explain matters to them, rebel leaders would have simply understood that aid was promised, but nothing was delivered. As such, the whole process, the must have concluded, was meant for intelligence gathering purposes only, and American had no intention of actually helping the rebels.

 

Moreover, I think we should also differentiate here between certain Obama appointees, like Clinton, Petraeus and Panetta, and his inner circle of advisers, people like Thomas Donilon, Obama’s National Security Adviser, and his Deputy and White Chief-of-Staff, Denis McDonough, just succeeded by Anthony Blinken. Even people like Valerie Jarret who carried the official title of Senior Adviser to the President seem to be much closer to the President than other appointees. Indeed, it seems that Obama has relied more heavily on these figures, among others, when it came to formulating his foreign policy stands, than on Clinton, Petraeus and Panetta whose appointment seems to have reflected first term political calculations than ideological affinity. Things might change with the advent of John Kerry and Chuck Hagel whose views seem to correspond to the President’s own, especially with regard to Syria.

 

Video Highlights

 

Islamist rebels showcase their own home-made missile with a range of up 60 KM, or so they claim http://youtu.be/zvA2SRVzn0w

 

Leaked video shows pro-Assad militias torturing a detainee in a missile base that was later captured by rebels http://youtu.be/k_Ie2LHnKfo Another video from the same base shows pro-Assad soldiers posing next to a dead rebel http://youtu.be/3CMKvNUAeVk

 

A third leaked video is even more gruesome, and shows the aftermath of a massacre perpetrated by pro-Assad militias http://youtu.be/IA9brNT70Ho

 

The town of Binnish, Idlib Province, has fallen over the last few months under the control of Islamist groups, including Jabat Al-Nusra, whose rhetoric has been getting more and more extreme, as the siege of their town by pro-Assad militias from nearby Shia and Alawite villages continue. The inhabitants of Binnish now call for the establishment of a caliphate. In this video, we see a child singing while waving a dagger (near the end) threatening Shiites and Alawites with slaughter http://youtu.be/-BKUNbDfkxw. Islamist rebels have been organizing themselves more as a local governing body as well providing services, such as garbage collection http://youtu.be/US-thZavg5Q and bread making http://youtu.be/7QHIKB83uEA Moreover, locals have come out quite vocally against the initiative for dialogue by opposition leader Moaz Alkhatib http://youtu.be/Hkyr3TfPfuY

 

Elsewhere in Idlib, rebels attack ad take control of Al-Shaghar checkpoint, killing many Assad loyalists http://youtu.be/Ewjaq1ZQ2j4

 

In Damascus City, intense clashes between loyalists and rebels take place in several neighborhoods, including Al-Qadam (Port Said Alley) http://youtu.be/Ewjaq1ZQ2j4 , http://youtu.be/ZIIbfwp_q_U But pounding by tanks continues http://youtu.be/1Oj-bV9dzms , http://youtu.be/NRx5tXz6Enc , http://youtu.be/N7MFwrtuMLw Buildings catch fire http://youtu.be/LUCOMrzUpmo

 

MiGs pound nearby Sbeineh http://youtu.be/gSVTWvFu1eU And Arbeen http://youtu.be/sl-Wxf_c7Lo

 

The battles in Jobar Neighborhood continue, with more tanks coming to support regime troops: http://youtu.be/VGcM5aUoXdE , http://youtu.be/qH-B9hCGgew Survey of some of the damage http://youtu.be/HU4u8D5Bgzc , http://youtu.be/1kTOrQ3AVOA , http://youtu.be/5oblEl39fks MiGs take part in the pounding http://youtu.be/pZKMZbrCC5E

 

To the West, the pounding of Moadamiyah Suburb continues http://youtu.be/A8nUR5YhyZs And Daraya http://youtu.be/M_8zAbAU7J4

 

Further west, along the Lebanese borders, the pounding of the town of Zabadani continues http://youtu.be/_lgh57gShRc

 

Time For A Real Policy!

Let’s be clear: Syrian lives are no more or less precious than Congolese lives, but current developments in Syria have far greater implications for U.S. policies around the world than current developments in Congo. As such, the price of indecision and failure in regard to Syria is far higher. If President Obama can’t see that, then President Obama is wrong. It’s about time he realized that. Too much is at stake and too many lives have been lost that could have been saved.

Today’s Death Toll: 121 martyrs, including 2 women, 9 children and 1 under torture: 42 in Damascus and suburbs; 32 in Aleppo; 21 in Homs; 12 in Daraa; 8 in Idlib; 3 in Hama; 2 in Deir Ezzor; and 1 in Raqqa (LCCs).

Hind Aboud Kabawat: A place where Syrians all get along
Much of the commentary about Syria’s civil war suggests that the country is about to disintegrate into competing sectarian fiefdoms, each dominated by jihadists with a radical Islamist agenda. But during my own recent trip to one of Syria’s “liberated” villages, I saw little evidence that post-Assad Syria will be a failed state, nor even an Islamist one.

I can only hope that the above assertion made by my good friend Hind Aboud Kabawat is right, even though it runs contrary to the analysis I have been presenting here for the last few months. After all, being right is not as important to me as Syria being well. But, if the history of the last 15-20 years taught me anything, it’s that I am seldom wrong about things Syrian, and my good friends like Hind and so many others, are seldom right. They drown in sentimentalities and details and fail to see the big picture. Those among them who believe that they see the big picture are often watching an ideological construction emanating from their own imagination and their wishes superimposed on the reality in front of them. Syria is already a failed state, she is broken, and the future does not augur well for putting her back together again.

For the sectarianism is real, the extremism is real, and, with few exceptions, good leaders are nowhere to be found. We have to accept the reality of these realities in order to be able to manage them effectively, and help Syria emerge eventually on the scene as a viable state again.

Syria: how jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra is taking over Syria’s revolution
It is here, behind the front lines of the war against Bashar al-Assad that a new struggle is emerging. It is a clash of ideologies: a competition where rebel brigades vie to determine the shape of post-Assad Syria. And in recent weeks it is Jabhat al-Nusra, a radical jihadist group blacklisted by the US as terrorists and a group that wants Syria to be an uncompromising Islamic state governed by sharia, that is holding sway. The group is well funded – probably through established global jihadist networks – in comparison to moderates. Meanwhile pro-democracy rebel group commanders say money from foreign governments has all but dried up because of fears over radical Islamists. The effect is changing the face of the Syrian revolution…

The Daily Telegraph gained rare access to Hajji Rasoul, the senior al-Nusra commander – or “emir” – who heads the civil program. “We have enough bread to help all the liberated areas,” he said. “We have put aside enough grain to last eight months in Aleppo.

“We are subsidising farmers so that they can prepare for the harvest and replenish the stores.”…

“We are not al-Qaeda. Just because some of our members share in its ideas, it doesn’t mean we are part of the group.”

Mr Rasoul would not be drawn on the Nusra Front’s exact plan for Syria’s future. But in rebel-held Aleppo a new sharia court is fast becoming a central power in the city. It is shared with the three other hardline Islamist groups operating in rebel territory: Ahrar al-Sham, Fijr al-Islam and Liwa Tawhid, though Jabhat al-Nusra takes the lead.

It refuses to employ judges who worked under the regime, choosing religious leaders to pass judgments.

Some sharia rulings, such as cutting off a hand for theft, are not operational in wartime. But locals complain of other rigid strictures being enforced.

Several men before the court said that their charges included “drinking alcohol” or “fraternising with women”. All this has angered many Aleppo residents, most of whom are moderate Muslims.

Note 1: Fear from getting sucked into another conflict in the Middle East has paved the way to the rise of extremist groups in Syria, ones who are gradually taking over and controlling the pace and nature of the revolution. Now it’s fear over having western funds and aid ending up with these radical groups that have dried funds and weapons going to moderate ones. So long as policies adopted by western leaders vis-à-vis the conflict in Syria continue to be based on fear of action the situation in Syria will keep getting worse. It’s time western leaders started betting on action as the way forward on Syria.

Note 2: To say that Jabhat Al-Nusra has no plans for being involved in the political processes in Syria after the fall of Assad is clearly misguided. The leaders of JAN have every intention of pushing for consolidating their hold on certain areas through involvement in local political processes, including provision of services. They genuinely want to push for the establishment of a caliphal system in Syria. They are open about it, they are serious about it, and they are getting more organized by the day, as western leaders continue to weigh their options, and opposition leaders continue to bicker.

Observers tend to forget in this regard that many of the top ideologues in the international Jihadi networks, especially Al-Qaeda, are Syrians. Now those Syrian Jihadi leaders have a golden opportunity to push for the establishment of their vision on the soil of their own homeland, across the border from Israel, and in the thick of the Sunni-Shiite battle-zone, does anyone seriously think that they will let it go to waste?

The only way this situation could be mitigated at this stage is by providing support to moderate and secular rebel groups so they can continue to have a stake in the outcome, and carve out their own territories in the mix of it all. Syria is fragmenting, and Emirates are being actively carved out, but not all of them have to be dominated by Islamist groups or pro-Assad militias, secular forces could still maintain a presence, even in Sunni-majority areas, and we need them to if we have to have any real chance of putting the pieces back together.

MICHAEL DORAN, SALMAN SHAIKH: Arm the Syrian Rebels. Now
While it may not be necessary to impose a Libya-style no-fly zone (NFZ), it is imperative to keep the threat on the table and to be willing, if required, to carry it out. An obvious alternative to an NFZ is to provide man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADs). But the legal and prudential restrictions are considerable. The use of these systems would require a stronger partnership between the FSA and key regional allies than currently exists.

In addition to weaponry, the FSA needs training, resources, and intelligence support. It currently lacks a sound military strategy. Only the Americans, working together with Arab partner nations, have the requisite diplomatic and military resources to help the FSA develop this capacity.

This policy does entail the risk of unintended consequences. Some arms may flow to al Qaeda. Some groups may take American aid and then turn against the United States. But inaction also carries risks. The current hands-off policy has hardly succeeded in preventing extremists from acquiring arms. It has simply given them time and incentive to develop their own independent sources of external support.

By establishing itself as the most important international player shaping the conflict inside Syria, the United States will lay the groundwork for helping the Syrian people forge a genuine national dialogue on the nature of their transition. This should include the creation of a national platform that brings together Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious communities — including Sunnis, Shiites, Alawis, Christians, and Kurds, as well as tribal and religious figures — to discuss the future of the country. In particular, it should include Alawis who enjoy wide legitimacy within their community, but who are also willing to talk about a post-Assad Syrian regime.

At the same time, the United States should bring together key international and regional powers to create an international steering group. This group — including China, Russia, Turkey, and key Arab and European states — should agree on a number of basic goals for the transition and set benchmarks for their effective implementation. The immediate focus should be on protecting civilians, minorities, and vulnerable groups through the creation of an international stabilization force; addressing humanitarian issues; safeguarding chemical and other unauthorized weapons; and supporting Syrian-led transitional governance and transitional justice efforts.

For this to succeed, Obama must first persuade Russia to abandon its demand that Assad play a role in the transition. If Moscow remains defiant, however, the president must be willing to pursue an independent policy — while still keeping the door open for Russian President Vladimir Putin to eventually join the international consensus.

 

Video Highlights

Syrian Emergency Task Force launches its Adopt A Village Project http://youtu.be/4xJaUaBi1Xw

Lt. Gen. Abdel-Jabbar Al-Oqaidi addresses a rally in Qatirji Neighborhood, Aleppo City: he reminds people that the revolution started as a nonviolent protest movement, and that it was only the violent crackdown by the regime that compelled people like him to defect and take up arms. He also admits that there are small groups out there that have committed violations, and that FSA leadership has been slow to punish them because they were trying to avoid getting into side-battles. But he promises that this will change soon and that violators will be held accountable http://youtu.be/4xJaUaBi1Xw

Meanwhile, in the majority-Kurdish neighborhood of Al-Ashrafiyeh, Kurdish rebels affiliated with PYD, a Syrian Kurdish group inspired by PKK ideology, clashed with pro-regime militias http://youtu.be/5nGiVKi__DE  The clashes from the point of view of regime supporters http://youtu.be/LbcE6RvApko

A missile falls on Massaken Hanano, destroying a passing vehicle and killing her occupants as well as passersby http://youtu.be/q8yLSaduEfo

The pounding of Al-Shaar kills many http://youtu.be/CfqMxWyJod4 The pounding targeted this rally http://youtu.be/GqenGnqy_K0 which at one point was led by the known comedian Houmam Hout http://youtu.be/SmKoLjtyW5E

An interview with Amira Ar’our, one of few women playing a leading role with rebel groups in Aleppo City http://youtu.be/APcCH-d1hKo

In Damascus City, battles for the control of the Jobar District intensifies, as regime forces mercilessly pound the neighborhood http://youtu.be/VZeebxDG49Y The building being pounded is known as the teachers tower, a housing project that has been reserved for teachers when it was first launched, it’s one of the newer structures in the District http://youtu.be/2IrD-vf0Y60 , http://youtu.be/fMEgwesdPPs Rebels close off section of the ring road passing through the District http://youtu.be/uysxhcdDJ8M While clashes continue along the road connecting the District with the famous Abbasid Square http://youtu.be/Nvwzu3qYW3A , http://youtu.be/c7ofgoEjFbk MiGs took part of the pounding as well http://youtu.be/nstKhrepEgE Children are among the dozens of locals who were killed so far http://youtu.be/07DAXYLaBCA

To the west, the town of Moadamiyeh came under heavy bombardment by regime forces http://youtu.be/H8YZJnUxmX0 , http://youtu.be/C3LHbarW_n8

In Saraqib, Idlib Province, the rivalry between Islamist and secular-leaning units is growing by the day. In today’s rally Islamist groups interrupted a rally chanting “God, Syria, Freedom,” and began chanting “Our leader forever is our Master Muhammad [the Prophet].” Secular demonstrators carried the striped green independence flags adopted by most revolutionaries, but Islamists carried black and white flags carrying the basic Islamic testament of faith: “there is no god but God, Muhammad is the Messenger of God.” Eventually, a brief scuffle broke out between some Islamists and secular demonstrators which ended with few Islamists tearing down and stomping on one of the green flags. At this point, secular demonstrators began chanting “Unity, liberty, civil state.” The rally continued without any further incident http://youtu.be/R_1xdQX33pM

In nearby Ma’arat Al-Nouman, the battle for control of the city continues, this clip shows a tank operated by rebels pounding tanks operated by regime loyalists http://youtu.be/hGN_vq2g5Kw

Clashes between rebels and loyalists take place on the outskirt of Deir Ezzor City http://youtu.be/zwIYq-OCVd4 ,http://youtu.be/QxI3nxRxpFw

Rebels in Raqqah bring down a chopper http://youtu.be/Q3Ud_Bx6rlY , http://youtu.be/IDJApsWZZ5s

Some of the rallies that took place today: Aleppo Road, Hama City http://youtu.be/ed9O8zt4yPM Yabroud, Damascus http://youtu.be/t5SboBgQhOc Douma, Damascus http://youtu.be/D5gi76VGAuo Arbeen, Damascushttp://youtu.be/zeAWWP0y3f4 Boustan Al-Qasr, Aleppo City http://youtu.be/Vpwr2SlYAbg Salqeen, Idlib http://youtu.be/NVzKsYLKl_M Sarmada, idlib http://youtu.be/wpoj_CeOPmg

Ground War: Syria’s Rebels Prepare to Take a Province from Assad
It was pomegranate season when the battle for Wadi Deif began in mid-October. Like so many rebel offensives, the fight for the Syrian military base, just east of the devastated city of Maaret Numan and one of the last major loyalist outposts in the vast northern province of Idlib, soon sputtered for the usual reasons — the rebels’ lack of coordination, lack of ammunition and heavy weapons and the strength of regime reinforcements backed by airpower and artillery…

On Wednesday, the push to take it was forcefully renewed, but unlike previous offensives here and elsewhere that tend to be disorganized, poorly-coordinated actions by a few brigades, this phase of the battle has been carefully planned over many weeks. It is not an isolated fight but part of a wider strategy, codenamed Marakit il Bina il Marsoos, or The Battle of Reinforced Structures, to open all of the remaining fronts in Idlib province at around the same time — Wadi Deif, the Karmid Checkpoint, the Mastoomeh Checkpoint, the Abu Duhoor military airport, and the smaller checkpoints associated with these outposts — before rebels turn their full attention to the regime forces concentrated in Idlib city, the provincial capital, and the city of Jisr al-Shughour, the two key urban areas still in the regime’s firm grip. If the rebels succeed, they will have created the first “liberated” province in Syria, an area completely free of regime forces and a de-facto “safe zone” — without direct international help.

The offensive is overseen by a council of religious clerics, a Sharia court led by Jabhat al-Nusra, the militant group designated a terrorist organization by the U.S but widely respected by rebels for its disciplined fighting prowess. The court has knitted together dozens of groups from across Idlib province, extracting a sworn pledge from each brigade leader that he will work with the other groups under the direction of the court and will not compete with his counterparts for any ghanaim, or spoils of war, from the outposts if they fall.

It’s not the first time Jabhat al-Nusra has taken the organizational lead in a fight in Idlib. In coordination with the Salafist Ahrar al-Sham brigades, it shepherded the final two-week phase in the months-long battle for the strategically important Taftanaz military airport that fell to the rebels in mid-January. The participation of other groups in those final stages of the fight was only at Jabhat’s invitation. Jabhat al-Nusra also established a committee that first itemized and then distributed the war spoils. Still, the sheer scale of Marakit il Bina il Marsoos, its multiple fronts, and the pledges to the Sharia court mark it as a new battlefield experiment the rebels hope will be emulated by others if it is successful.

Settling Syria: Why a Negotiated Peace is Possible — And Likely
In Syria, if the rebels were going to achieve a decisive military victory, they would have done so by now. The real options left there are quite narrow. The Alawites, the religious minority loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, are also not likely to achieve a military victory. Even if they were able to defeat the rebels, it would be a temporary lull. Instead, leaders in Damascus could offer amnesty to the rebels to initiate negotiations for a formal cease-fire, which would include international monitoring and peacekeeping troops. That would create the space to begin a slow, deliberate process of formal mediation that addresses all of the major conflict issues. Mediation ought to involve third parties and all the major factions of the opposition. Of peace agreements that have met those conditions, less than five have failed in the last 25 years.

The goal of prolonged mediation should be a final agreement, built upon previous ones, in which inclusiveness and broad institutional reforms are the goal. Civil war data and current conflict trends predict that the Syrian conflict will end in a negotiated settlement. The only choice is whether it will be soon, leaving Syria largely intact, or later, when even more of the country is in ruins.

Putting the foolishness of the first sentence aside (for no one provided the rebels with the kind of support that could help them achieve military victory), from an academic standpoint, the above assertions make excellent sense, but getting us from here to where such a plan could be implemented, requires much work, including empowering certain rebel groups and neutralizing Assad’s airpower. For so long as Jabhat Al-Nusra and its affiliates are currently in charge of leading offensives in Aleppo, Al-Raqqah, Deir Ezzor and Idlib, among other areas, and so long as Assad remains capable of wreaking havoc on rebel strongholds, no international monitors, no peacekeeping troops, no dialogue and no process are possible. Si vis pacem para bellum. Mr. Panetta seems to have understood this, while President Obama continues to mull things over.

 

Video Highlights

A leaked video shows pro-Assad soldiers dancing to Usher’s “Yeah!” during a lull in ongoing clashes in the town ofBasr Al-Harir in Daraa Province http://youtu.be/bRfTnWhgBW8 The lull was short-lived, clashes soon resumed

The pounding of the Daraa City continues http://youtu.be/ZsF_xoQxy-s , http://youtu.be/nu9NTuHXPz0 ,http://youtu.be/GRLDXQBbBcU

Clashes in Damascus City continue: The pounding begins at dawn http://youtu.be/-VPL6DJ9Eg4  Rebels pound a checkpoint in Jobar http://youtu.be/a1V6cR6FDOg Loyalists respond with mortars, tanks and MiGs http://youtu.be/nstKhrepEgE , http://youtu.be/NSEAI4kd83o Loyalists are trying to regain control of the Harmaleh checkpoint along the southern ring highway http://youtu.be/2MbLYVGeH44 But rebels push back and manage to destroy some of the attacking tanks http://youtu.be/DiifnWXp9UI Scenes from yesterday’s battle that allowed rebels to take control of the Harmala Checkpoint http://youtu.be/NPv7wTiQt9k

Pro-Assad militias in action in Qaboun http://youtu.be/sZgXSYms6nw , http://youtu.be/2LS_0QKRXd8 Al-Qadamneighborhood was also pounded http://youtu.be/uMp6FvMz7t0 With more rebels coming to take part in defending ithttp://youtu.be/NHeHKfTQ3ig Clashes in Al-Qadam train station continue http://youtu.be/fqKpdIcWI0Y The pounding of Eastern Ghoutah with MiGs continues http://youtu.be/_6s8zfaJ-Vo

In the Northeast, the pounding of Deir Ezzor City continues http://youtu.be/WaJ1BiT1aME , http://youtu.be/8O-jUsYp2UM , http://youtu.be/2perpWEJvE8 But rebels try to fight back using improvised missiles http://youtu.be/LlhXYkS16Tc

In Raqqa, major clashes took place in the town of Tabaqa, with helicopter taking part in pounding rebel positions http://youtu.be/7wdJnS55K3w Rebels try to take down the helicopter http://youtu.be/CXjGKcDeiOo Rebels take control of an attacking tank http://youtu.be/ssfa0HCMgIM Sounds of clashes http://youtu.be/Bo3HSJTxf30 Rebels mange to take control of the Alam Checkpoint http://youtu.be/rPYKET9zzmw , http://youtu.be/Dh0A3WlDO6g

How You Failed Syria!

Syrian Revolution Digest – February 5, 2013 

How you failed Syria, let me count the ways: you abandoned her when her movement for democratic change was nonviolent. You let Assad violate her and kill her children. You turned your back on her children when they rushed to her rescue, and pretended you were unaware. You uttered words of sympathy and encouragement, and sent few blankets and tents to people who were at the mercy of mortars and MiGs, not only the elements. You tied her fortunes to complicated geopolitical agendas that are beyond her control or interest. You let her legitimate aspirations and her all too human and humanitarian needs be the last entry on a long list of objectives. What do you expect of her now? Would tell her she is wrong to hate you? Would you blame her should she implode? Do you really think she would care anymore?

 

Tuesday February 5, 2013

 

Today’s Death Toll: 113 martyrs (including 6 women and 11 children): 41 in Aleppo, 41 in Damascus and Suburbs, 9 in Daraa, 4 in Homs, 4 in Idlib, 4 in Raqqa, 3 in Hama, 2 in Deir Ezzor and 1 in Lattakia (LCCs).

 

Points of Random Shelling: 281 points, 17 points were shelled by warplanes, 1 point by Phosphorus Bombs, 1 point by Thermobaric Bombs and Cluster Bombs and 1 points by barrel bombs. Artillery Shelling was reported in 138 points, mortar shelling in 96 points and missile shelling in 47 points across Syria (LCCs).

 

Clashes: 131. Successful rebel operations included an aerial raid mounted by a defect pilot against loyalist militias in the village of Safsafiya in Hama. In Aleppo, FSA rebels forced down a helicopter and liberated the Mulhab Barracks in the neighborhood of Khaldiyeh. In Daraa, rebels gained control of a loyalist checkpoint in Daraa Al-Balad (LCCs).

 

News

Ahtisaari: Major powers failing Syria Nobel Peace Prize Winner Martti Ahtisaari blames the lack of progress in Syria on the divided UN Security Council. He tells DW that he sees elections – not an interim government – as the best option.

UN warns of deepening humanitarian crisis in Syria “If the violence continues unabated, we could, in the short term, see considerably more than the current four million in need of urgent assistance and more than two million internally displaced in Syria,” the spokesperson for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Jens Laerke, told a news conference in Geneva. “Organizations are struggling to reach more people, in more places, with more aid, but lack of access is still a major obstacle,” he added.

Disease spreads as Syria casualties and drug shortages grow: WHO “The biggest concern for us is the breakdown of the water and sanitation system and the increasing numbers of water-borne diseases,” WHO representative Elisabeth Hoff told a news briefing about the deteriorating health situation on the ground. Hepatitis A, a viral liver disease that can cause explosive epidemics, has been reported in Aleppo, Idlib – where there has been intense fighting – and some crowded shelters for the homeless in the capital, she said by telephone from Damascus. Aid groups have had to start using alternatives to purify water because the import of chlorine gas has been banned over fears it could be misused as a chemical weapon.

Pressure mounts on Assad over Syria opposition’s offer Assad himself has yet to comment on the offer from Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, leader of Syria’s opposition National Coalition, but pro-regime Al-Watan newspaper described it as a political “manoeuvre” that comes two years too late.

Syria opposition ponders course as leader offers talks Sheikh Moaz Alkhatib, the moderate Islamic cleric who leads the 70-member assembly, said he would be ready to meet Assad’s ceremonial deputy, Farouq al-Shara, if Assad fulfils conditions including the release of tens of thousands of political prisoners. “The Coalition needs to convene to chart an urgent strategy after the reverberations of the initiative and seize on the momentum it has created, regardless of the reservations of some members,” one Coalition official said. While some opposition figures have criticized Alkhatib’s offer to talk to Assad’s representatives, others say it could expose Assad’s proposals for dialogue as hollow.

Islamic summit to urge Syria transition: draft The declaration, due to be issued after a two-day summit of 56-member Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Cairo starting on Wednesday, does not mention President Bashar al-Assad and pins most of the blame on his government for continued violence… “We strongly condemn the ongoing bloodshed in Syria and underline the Syrian government’s primary responsibility for the continued violence and destruction of property,” the draft communique said. “We express grave concern over the deteriorating situation the increasing frequency of killing which claims the lives of thousands of unarmed civilians and the perpetration of massacres in towns and villages by the Syrian authorities.” It was not clear whether Syria’s ally Iran, which is attending the OIC summit, would back the tough wording.

Syria rebels tighten noose around key Idlib city Insurgents have tightened their noose around the city of Jisr al-Shughur, held by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, but refrain for now from staging further attacks, and an eerie calm prevails in surrounding villages.

Palestinian Officials to Try to Secure Syria Camps Ahmed Majdalani said Tuesday that representatives will meet Syrian officials to try to protect Palestinian areas from fighting that has engulfed parts of the capital Damascus. Generations of Palestinian refugees have lived in the crowded Damascus area of Yarmouk since their forefathers fled, or were forced to flee, their homes during the 1948 Mideast war surrounding Israel’s founding. Majdalani said they also will try to convince Palestinian factions to stay out of the fighting. The some 500,000 Palestinians in Syria are divided between supporters of rebels and government forces.

Third Iron Dome station in North amid Syria tensions An army spokeswoman said that the anti-rocket systems were continuously in the process of being moved, and did not draw a link to the deployment with any current events… The Army Radio report said that the deployment “does not signal pinpoint information on an expected missile attack on Israel, but in light of the reports of an Israeli attack in Syria [last week], and the threats being heard in Lebanon and Iran, the IDF is not taking any chances.”

Syria scales back threats against Israel over airstrike, suggests it won’t retaliate Syria’s defense minister signaled Monday that his country won’t hit back at Israel over an airstrike inside Syria, claiming the Israeli raid was actually in retaliation for his regime’s offensive against rebels he called “tools” of the Jewish state. “The Israeli enemy retaliated. When the Israeli enemy saw that its tools are being chased and did not achieve any (of their) goals, they interfered,” he responded. “It was a response to our military acts against the armed gangs,” al-Freij added. “The heroic Syrian Arab Army, which proved to the world that it is a strong army and a trained army, will not be defeated.” In surprisingly candid remarks, al-Freij said that rebels have made Syrian air defenses across the country a focus of their attacks over the past months, attacking some with mortars while attempting to seize others in order to incapacitate them. In response, he said the Syrian leadership decided to station them all in one safe place, leading to “gaps in radar coverage in some areas.” “These gaps became known to the armed gangs and the Israelis who undoubtedly coordinated together to target the research center,” he said. He suggested the army was overstretched and finding difficulty retaining control over several positions across the country, adding they had to abandon some areas to minimize casualties.

 

Special Reports

‘The Kiss’ In Syria: Artist Tammam Azzam Goes Viral With His Take On Gustav Klimt’s Artwork (PHOTOS)

Syrian artist Tammam Azzam took the twittersphere by storm last week when he posted an image of Gustav Klimt’s “The Kiss” superimposed on the facade of a bullet-ridden building in Damascus. The photoshopped image — which some mistook for an actual street-side mural — brought the eye of the art world to the artist’s war-torn home country.

Syrian rebel raids expose secrets of once-feared military

Former regime strongholds are now being picked clean – and some are underwhelmed by what lies behind the perimeter walls

Through Social Media, Tracking Rape In Syria

The Women Under Siege project is live-tracking how sexualized violence is being used in Syria. What’s new is the data: information collected through crowdsourcing – reports on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube from inside the country — which is then analyzed by public health researchers at Columbia University. The project’s crowdmap keeps an up-to-date tally in visual form: incidents of sexual violence are represented by dots on a map — the larger the dot, the more reports of rape.

The Rise of Syria’s Kurds

In a remarkably short time, the PYD has succeeded in setting up a well-armed military of about 10,00 fighters, known as the Popular Protection Units (or Yekineyen Parastina Gel, or YPG), as well as local, self-organized civilian structures under the label of the “Movement for a Democratic Society” (Tevgera Civaka Demokratik, or TEV-DEM). In theory, the PYD shares power with some 15 other Kurdish parties (who form the Kurdish National Council, or KNC) in the framework of the Kurdish Supreme Council, which was established in July 2012 through the mediation efforts of Massoud Barazani, president of Iraqi Kurdistan and leader of Iraq’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Yet on the ground, the PYD is dismissing its council partners as nothing more than proxies for Barazani himself, whose close relationship with Turkey the PYD deeply mistrusts. Additionally, the PYD has prevented any armed Kurdish presence besides its own loyalist Populist Protection Units; most recently, armed altercations were reported with the Kurdish Union Party in Syria (Yekiti) in the towns of al-Darbasiyah and Qamishli.

Killed By the Regime: Aleppo’s River of the Dead

For weeks now, the river has brought new bodies almost every night. The corpses arrive without any identification and the hands are generally tied together with plastic strings. The men have all been shot. The week before last, the river carried three bodies on some days, and seven on others. Last Monday there were five, but on Tuesday there were almost 80. There had been heavy rain in the night, the river level had risen, and now corpses were lining the muddy river bank… The dead were students enrolled at the University of Aleppo who had come from other cities to stand exams.

Syrian Justice and Accountability Center: Lionesses and Sectarianism

News of the women’s unit, a part-time and volunteer fighting force known as the “Lionesses for National Defence,” made headlines mid-January. A video from the Russia Today Arabic TV shows the soldiers in uniform as they train and chant pro-Assad slogans. They have already been deployed in Homs and carry out security operations and guard checkpoints. The rationale for the women’s unit has been explained by Assad’s need for new recruits and perhaps as a morale-boosting tactic aimed to draw his supporters into a closer community.

Syria’s Fate Hinges on Whom It Hates Most, U.S. or Iran?

Benign neglect, however, hasn’t been so benign. Syria’s humanitarian crisis has reached epic proportions, with more than 60,000 people killed and 2.5 million people displaced. The sense of abandonment and desperation felt by many Syrians has served to strengthen the most radical elements of the rebel forces, some of whom are thought to be aligned with al-Qaeda. Syria’s hemorrhaging will continue to fuel radicalism until there is a change of political leadership in Damascus. In order to expedite this process, the U.S. administration must inhibit Iran’s ability to arm and finance Assad… A greater U.S. role won’t render Syria an American-allied democracy. That possibility, if it ever existed, has long been lost. But continued U.S. inaction risks leaving Syria at the mercy of Iran and Sunni extremists whose intolerance, and hatred of the U.S., dwarfs any concerns they may have for the well- being of Syria and its people. Such an outcome would haunt Syria, the Middle East and the U.S. for years to come.

 

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”

 

Responses

 

My friend, Daniel Serwer, from SAIS, refers to my earlier posting on Alkhatib’s and Assad’s “finitiatives,” and expresses certain doubts as to whether Alkhatib’s move will serve to “weaken or strengthen his position,” as opposition leader, noting that “the uncertainty is itself debilitating.” He is right. Alkhatib made quite a gamble, but that’s what real leaders need to do in times of crisis in order to break the stalemate. There are no guarantees of success. But a political move was clearly needed, and I think what Alkhatib started is the right move at this particular time on the political front, even if it failed.

 

Meanwhile, the Guardian found my endorsement of Alkhatib’s “finitiative” to be surprising, considering my hawkish background and my affiliation with a neocon think tank:

 

Khatib’s call for conditional dialogue with the Syrian government has been backed by unlikely the source – Ammar Abdulhamid a usually hawkish Syrian dissident and blogger. Abdulhamid, fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which is regarded as a NeoCon thinktank, said an armed struggle should continue alongside Khatib’s call for talks.

 

But I am not motivated by ideology. I stared preaching a jasmine revolution long before it became fashionable to do so, but, when people opted for armed struggle, people like me were not in a position to contradict them and dissuade them from doing so: I did not have the standing or the leverage to do this. So, my best option at that stage was to make sure that the rebels had the material and political support they need to win. If you cannot prevent a certain development, you can at least try to guide it or influence it to the best of your ability. The objective is still democratic change in the region, and not only Syria, breaking the Assad regime is simply the beginning of a long process, a generational process.

 

Video Highlights

 

Rebels from the Syrian Islamic Front attack a loyalist convoy near the town of Zabadani, Damascus (February 4) using a roadside bomb http://youtu.be/Xz4a6MQwXpk

 

Rebels in Eastern Ghoutah, Damascus, attack the Tamico Checkpoint using RPGs http://youtu.be/-yAQ8y7EKng Even cows are not safe from random shelling by the regime, as this clip from a farm in the village of Hujairah in Eastern Ghoutah shows http://youtu.be/gd1X4XLLn7I A plane overfly the village in preparation for another raid http://youtu.be/JS1Ue-mNzxA Houses catch fire in Sbeineh http://youtu.be/U2U5Rv4lYNA

 

Not too far, in Damascus City, a MiG carry out an aerial raid against Al-Qadam neighborhood http://youtu.be/k5MSL-q-93I , http://youtu.be/QoDuEQH2EOQ

 

Back to the west, and in the town of Daraya, rebels destroy a marauding regime tank http://youtu.be/IT6N8URM9YY But other tanks keep wreaking havoc http://youtu.be/hXP8Byq8uvs And the clashes continue http://youtu.be/zZeoIbJpsMc

 

The bodies of loyalist soldiers from the Republic Guard are strewn in a side street in Deir Ezzor City http://youtu.be/Fk-tYoFrok8 On the outskirts of the city, rebels target loyalist positions with their own heavy artillery http://youtu.be/nUFYa_QK19k

 

Rebels from Al-Tawhid Brigade in Daraa City storm a loyalist checkpoint http://youtu.be/yXSG0_a2M1o

 

In Aleppo, rebels clash with loyalist troops in Massakin Al-Sabeel http://youtu.be/KIGlt2FBdms , http://youtu.be/k6nM5iWVJ6w , http://youtu.be/MtkvvaLWhj4