Syria Watch

Syrian Revolution Digest – Monday, 4 February 2013

The New “Finitiative”!

Not too long ago, Assad issued a “Finitiative,” that is, an initiative to end all initiatives, calling, allegedly, for dialogue with the opposition. Now, opposition leader Moaz Alkhatib has repaid Assad in kind by issuing his own “Finitiative” calling, purportedly, for dialogue with the regime. Both finitiatives were clearly designed for purposes other than those declared and were meant primarily as acts of continued defiance, even if some failed to detect the defiance involved in Alkhatib’s finitiative. For while, Assad’s finitiative was meant to rally troops and consolidate support and control rather than enter into any real dialogue with the opposition, Alkhatib’s came as a revolutionary act meant to break a political stalemate in the ranks of the international community and to push for a real policy to help resolve the situation in Syria in a way commensurate with the expectation of the majority of average Syrians from all communal and political backgrounds. Assad’s finitiative was, then, a defensive act, a last stand of sorts. But Alkhatib’s finitiative marked the opposition’s first real offensive on the political front.

 

Today’s Death Toll: 111 martyrs, including 5 women and 4 children. 41 martyrs in Damascus and Suburbs; 23 in Aleppo; 13 in Homs; 11 in Daraa, 6 in Deir Ezzor, 6 in Idlib; 6 in Hama and 4 in Raqqa (LCCs).

Points of Random Shelling: 330 point, including 29 points that were shelled by warplanes, 4 points using thermal balloon bombs; 3 with thermobaric bombs and 2 points with barrel bombs, in addition, 134 were targeted by mortar shells; 121 points by heavy caliber artillery and 37 points by rockets (LCCs).

Clashes: 152 clashes. Successful operations include repelling attempts by regime forces to storm Yarmouk Camp in Damascus City, and taking control of the Wattar checkpoint in the town of Adra in Damascus Suburbs. In Aleppo, FSA rebels continued to encircle Kueiris Military Airport, and, in Raqqa, they seized control over the Munition depots belonging to the 17th Brigade (LCCs).

 

News

Syria opposition urges Assad to respond to dialogue call “The regime must take a clear stand (on dialogue) and we say we will extend our hand for the interest of people and to help the regime leave peacefully,” he told the Qatar-based channel. “It is now in the hands of the regime.”

Syria: UN begins delivery of safe water supplies for 10 million people “This shipment is very timely as supplies of chlorine in Syria have fallen dangerously low, making access to safe water challenging for many families,” said Youssouf Abdel-Jelil, UNICEF Representative in Syria. “This puts the population – and children especially – at high risk of contracting diarrhoea and other water-borne diseases.”

Captives in Syria exchanged for rebels Viktor Gorelov and Abdessattar Hassun are in the Russian Embassy in Damascus and were in good health, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Monday. It added that Italian Mario Belluomo, abducted together with them on Dec. 12, will be handed over to Italian envoys by Syria’s Foreign Ministry. The Russian Embassy wouldn’t say how many captured militants were set free in exchange for the three hostages, or offer any details about their release, which was also reported by state-run Syrian TV.

Ahmadinejad says war not solution in Syria “War is not the solution…A government that rules through war – its work will be very difficult. A sectarian war should not be launched in Syria,” he told Al Mayadeen television. “We believe that (deciding) whoever stays or goes is the right of the Syrian people. How can we interfere in that? We must strive to achieve national understanding, and free elections.”

Israel plans defence buffer inside Syria A 10-mile strip filled with troops and tanks is being considered to fend off Islamists should Assad fall, writes Uzi Mahnaimi in Tel Aviv.

Israel and Assad raise stakes on Syria With every month that passes, Syria’s neighbours become more edgy and the risk of contagion from the conflict grows. Though Israel is in a state of war with Syria, it has long considered the Assads at least a predictable enemy. With Syria in chaos, and chemical and biological weapons potentially falling into the hands of rebel groups as the regime further loses its authority, Israel might convince itself that further military strikes are necessary.

ANA Exclusive European official visits A’azaz camp of Aleppo European parliament member Koert Debeuf (ALDE GROUP) visits a camp located in A’azaz of Aleppo to witness the humanitarian situation there. our reporter joins the official in helping describe the scenes seen here.

 

Special Reports

David Ignatius: Involving Russia in Syria
two ideas emerged on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that could draw Russia into a more constructive role in solving the crisis, rather than allowing it to remain an obstructionist bystander… 1) Vice President Joe Biden is said to have proposed, in his private meeting Saturday with Lavrov, that Russia and the United States work jointly to maintain secure control of Syria’s chemical weapons, in the event that Assad’s government should fall… 2) Sheik Mouaz al-Khatib, the leader of the umbrella coalition group of the Syrian opposition, repeated Friday night in Munich his willingness to meet with acceptable representative of the Assad regime, “to ease the suffering of the Syrian people.”

Shadi Hamid: Syria Is Not Iraq: Why the legacy of the Iraq War keeps President Obama from doing the right thing in Syria
For Syria, it is likely too late. Not withstanding something sudden and entirely unexpected, the international community will not intervene. That does not mean that the Syrian people are doomed. They will likely “win” in the end, but their victory, if we can even call it that, will have come at a much greater cost – in the sheer number killed – than was necessary. It will have come at the cost of a country destroyed, of sects polarized beyond any hope of reconciliation, of Salafis and Jihadists ascendant, of a state too torn and divided for real governance.

President Obama’s Shifting Red Line on Syria
Whether or not the United States should have established a red line over the movement and use of Syrian chemical weapons is now an academic question; the issue at play yet again for the current administration in regards to foreign policy is national credibility. If a red line can be cavalierly declared, and then shifted for convenience, then it is no red line at all. It is worse to declare such and not fulfill national obligation than not to have done anything in the first place.

Syria: the former English teacher turned Aleppo’s female sniper
Her fame has spread throughout Aleppo. Her comrades have nicknamed her ‘Guevara’, but to many of the city’s residents she is known simply as: ‘the female sniper’.

Syria and Forced Migration: The World Stands Witness
So: we speak about humanitarian aid and the vulnerable, and we learn about mass-violence in one specific location. Yet the media do not link what is happening in Syria to larger questions of global politics. And, the risk, therefore, is that neither do we. We are witnessing a critical moment in Syria. Yes, let us focus on the material and everyday questions of ongoing violence and forced migration: tents, blankets, water, and food. But let us not use the focus on aid as an excuse to avoid identifying the interconnected, regional, and global factors at work. I would like to hear more about the global arms trade. I would like to hear more about the role of, and control over, natural resources. And I would like to see a more sophisticated gender analysis.

How Skype Is Helping Topple a Dictator in Syria
“Skype was big in Libya, but it was just kind of emerging and the conflict was shorter,” said Lara Setrakian, founder of Syria Deeply, the dedicated Syria news startup. “Skype is now where you go first. And we’ve been invited into private chat rooms, we’ve had some of them translated for us in real time. That is where rebel groups are posting updates and activists inside and out are having conversations.”

Omar Hossino: Syria’s Secular Revolution Lives On
The secular and nationalist spirit that initially sparked the Syrian revolution is also still alive and well. Many grassroots activists and religious leaders are working to forge a country that is built on secular principles, against sectarian revenge, and supportive of equal rights for all its citizens. Even some of the sharia courts that have sprung up to administer justice in areas the Syrian government has abandoned contain surprising, nonsectarian trends.Whether such a movement can survive as the uprising drags on is not yet clear. For the time being, however, these figures embody the sliver of hope that Syria may avoid an all-out sectarian war.

Leila Nachawati: Blaming the Victims
After two years of sitting and watching civilians being massacred by the people who are in charge of protecting them, the “international community” now points at the consequences of its own inaction. Sectarianism, terrorism, jihadist elements, radicalization, and civil war are not inherent to Syrian society, but the direct consequences of backing dictatorship. These are the direct consequences of watching peaceful demonstrators being arrested and tortured, their neighborhoods bombed, their children killed, and every big or small non-violence initiative crushed without any country doing anything to stop the regime, and some going out of their ways to support it. These are the direct consequences of listening to Assad supporters chant “Bashar, or we will set Syria on fire” and not take it seriously. Assad supporters have kept their promise in a literal sense.

The Syrian Islamic Front: A New Extremist Force
Given these factors and reports of growing operational coordination with JN, the SIF is not a faction the Obama administration should work with politically or militarily. According to recent rumors, however, KAS may soon join the Supreme Military Council (SMC), an armed affiliate of the U.S.-supported National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (SOC). This would constrain potential U.S. efforts to help the opposition. Even if its brigades do not join the council, the SIF is still an important player on the ground, not only because of its fighting capabilities, but also in terms of providing some form of proto-governance in parts of Syria. The United States will have to contend with this reality when deciding how it wants to approach the current state of play.

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”

 

The New “Finitiative”

Even intelligent observers of the Syrian revolutionary scene seem to oppose the recent initiative launched by Syrian opposition leader Moaz Alkhatib calling for conditional dialogue with the Assad regime. At the heart of their opposition lies the fear of the uncertainty that a political process brings with it and of the potential for re-legitimization of the regime as a byproduct. They fear that the revolution itself might be undermined and suffocated. But their fears are misplaced.

As Alkhatib himself has clearly said in his Al-Arabiya interview (some of the main points were covered by NBC as well), the armed struggle will continue irrespective of his call. Indeed, Alkhatib is under no illusion that he could stop the armed struggle nor does he want to. That is exactly what makes him different from other figures calling for dialogue: he endorses the dialogue and the armed struggle (not to mention nonviolent action). As such, what he is doing can in no way undermine the revolution. The armed struggle has become self-sustaining by now, even if arms flow remains unsteady. Unless Alkhatib, or whoever, can at one point produce a political vision and a plan that can be adopted by the majority of rebel leaders, then, nothing will change. So, where is the danger to the revolution then in what Alkhatib is doing? Opposition members need to understand is keeping pressure on the regime on all fronts, the political, the economic and the military, is a duty and not a choice. The rebels are doing their part, but the  political opposition remains missing in action. It’s this maligned initiative by Alkhatib that has finally put them on the map.

Reports from various activists on the ground, and social media chatter indicate that the average Syrian seems to have responded well to Alkhatib’s initiative. While the emotional plea that Alkhatib made to Assad when he told him in his Al-Arabiya interview to “look into his children’s eyes and find the solution there” may not have an effect on Assad, and sounded all too naïve to so many opposition members, it does seem to have hit home for many average Syrians, further denuding Assad in the eyes of still silent segments, and adding to Alkhatib’s credibility. Indeed, in the public eye, Alkhatib now appears as one of very few members of the opposition who can support the revolution without being oblivious to the suffering of the people as well.

Moreover, and to set the record straight, again, Alkhatib’s initiative is not meant to change the policies and attitudes of the Russians, Iranians and Assad supporters, but the attitudes and policies of the American and other western governments, by showing them there are those in the opposition with real leadership potential, and that the Syrian Opposition Coalition can be relied upon to produce a viable provisional government. As such, Syrian opposition groups need to give Alkhatib more time to act and should judge the success or failure of his initiative by the change it can produce in western policies towards supporting the opposition and the rebels. And we don’t have to postpone our judgment for too long. If, by May, the Obama Administration has not adopted a more proactive attitude towards inernveion in Syria, then, we can judge the initiative to have failed. Personally, I would still judge it as a laudable effort that deserves to have been made, and I would still see in Moaz a good and courageous leader for having embarked on this course and tried something different for change.

Some may find it strange that I support Alkhatib’s initiative, because, somehow, I am considered to be a hawk. But what I actually stand for is adopting a set policies based on a real understanding of the Assad regime and the realities on the ground. I have longed argued that military and political processes are not mutually exclusive, and should not be thought of with an either/or mentality. For unless rebels make serious military gains, including neutralizing Assad’s airpower, no viable political process can be launched. Moreover, no political process can be seen as credible if it is not led by figures who can appeal to the grassroots and to the average Syrian, irrespective of his political stands at the moment. We did not have such a figure until Moaz Alkhatib entered the scene. The fact that many believe that U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford played a key role in facilitating the emergence of Alkhatib on the scene is a good argument in favor of greater U.S. involvement in support of the opposition. Perhaps by offering military support to the rebels, the U.S. can help empower the credible and moderate leaders emerging in their ranks as well.

Meanwhile, one thing is clear: by failing to be more proactive, the Obama Administration has done a lot of damage to the cause of democratic change in Syria and the region. But course correction is still possible.

Roger Cohen makes an excellent argument for U.S. “Intervene in Syria,” and hits it on the head with his assertion that a “political solution cannot be achieved unless the balance of power is altered.”

I agree with Brahimi that there is no military solution. Syria, with its mosaic of faiths and ethnicities, requires political compromise to survive. That is the endgame. But this does not mean there is no military action that can advance the desired political result by bolstering the armed capacity of the Syrian opposition, leveling the military playing field, and hastening the departure of Assad essential for the birth of a new Syria. Assad the Alawite will not go until the balance of power is decisively against him…

It is time to alter the Syrian balance of power enough to give political compromise a chance and Assad no option but departure. That means an aggressive program to train and arm the Free Syrian Army. It also means McCain’s call to use U.S. cruise missiles to destroy Assad’s aircraft on the runway is daily more persuasive.

Indeed, it is about time we saw the Obama Administration endorsing such efforts instead of blocking them:

Last summer, as the fighting in Syria raged and questions about the United States’ inaction grew, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton conferred privately with David H. Petraeus, the director of the C.I.A. The two officials were joining forces on a plan to arm the Syrian resistance.

The idea was to vet the rebel groups and train fighters, who would be supplied with weapons. The plan had risks, but it also offered the potential reward of creating Syrian allies with whom the United States could work, both during the conflict and after President Bashar al-Assad’s eventual removal.

Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Petraeus presented the proposal to the White House, according to administration officials. But with the White House worried about the risks, and with President Obama in the midst of a re-election bid, they were rebuffed.

Shadi Hamid, Director of Research in the Brookings Doha Center, makes a similar argument:

Another unfortunate feature of the ongoing debate was the tendency to treat the military option and the diplomatic “alternative” as mutually exclusive. They never were. On the contrary, they could have been pursued in parallel. In Bosnia, NATO power forced the Serbs to the negotiating table, leading to the Dayton Accords and the introduction of multinational peacekeeping forces. In Libya, the Qaddafi regime showed more interest in negotiating with the opposition after military intervention, rather than before (Within a few weeks of the NATO operation, Qaddafi envoys were engaging in ceasefire talks).

Albeit, Hamid might be right, perhaps, the Obama Administration is too late:

For Syria, it is likely too late. Notwithstanding something sudden and entirely unexpected, the international community will not intervene. That does not mean that the Syrian people are doomed. They will likely “win” in the end, but their victory, if we can even call it that, will have come at a much greater cost – in the sheer number killed – than was necessary. It will have come at the cost of a country destroyed, of sects polarized beyond any hope of reconciliation, of Salafis and Jihadists ascendant, of a state too torn and divided for real governance.

I have made similar arguments in my recent paper, still, I hope that we are both wrong, and that course correction is still possible.

 

Video Highlights

Rebels bring down a helicopter gunship in Ma’arrat Al-Nouman, Idlib (Feb 1) http://youtu.be/yYtPsqmQlZ

Rebels in Daraa City, use improvised missile launcher to target a loyalist headquarter http://youtu.be/uIcWwDbdaSc ,http://youtu.be/J-Gg_7zK_SE As clashes continue http://youtu.be/6OUVd-J3OIg

Rebel encirclement of the Kuweiris Military Airport, Aleppo, continues http://youtu.be/u1c0HMx3azk

Rebels in Kafrenboudeh, Hama, try to take down a helicopter http://youtu.be/ajGEDC9axlo

In Damascus City, clashes between rebels and loyalist troops continue in several key neighborhoods: Al-Qadam a tank pound rebel positions http://youtu.be/Sty9J9RLtPg Rebels defend their positions using RPGshttp://youtu.be/djwJXnBtrjY Yarmouk Camp the pounding continues http://youtu.be/LWLHBybHlTw Same in nearbyTadamon http://youtu.be/g9SFhyLyPkM

Meanwhile, aerial bombardment of Eastern Ghoutah continues: Douma http://youtu.be/Q0ojPfw_Sy0 Locals caught in a state of panic http://youtu.be/7_F2wOTm-_Y Kafar Batna http://youtu.be/py0a91xskkE Local panichttp://youtu.be/gxFGwFBp1f8 Saqba http://youtu.be/d4ZqQmiC0OE

To the West, in Daraya, Damascus Suburbs, tanks continue to encircle rebel positions http://youtu.be/vgIHePQfCv0 and the pounding of the town of Zabadani by heavy artillery continues http://youtu.be/qpyRfdLNEFI To the North, MiGs pound the town of Yabroud http://youtu.be/6oH1yvdDasM

Syrian Revolution Digest: Sunday, 3 February 2013

Leader in Action!

Let’s be clear: opposition leader Moaz Al-Khatib’s recent activities and statements will not change the positions of Russia and Iran on transition in Syria, and will not convince the regime to halt its crackdown, release political prisoners and enter into serious negotiations to hand power over to the opposition. But what Moaz managed to accomplish is to show the world that a potential leader with a vision and moral gumption is emerging on the scene. Too bad, his fellow opposition members have for the most part chosen to vilify him rather than understand the true nature and measure of his activities. What Syrian opposition groups need to understand is that military means are not going to seal the deal for change in Syria, and will only get you so far before politics have to weigh in. People like Moaz Al-Khatib will be instrumental in ensuring that the interests of the average Syrian are represented and not only those of various ideological groups.

Today’s Death Toll: 140 martyrs, including 11 women, 15 children and 3 martyrs under torture: 41 in Aleppo; 36 in Damascus and Suburbs; 16 in Homs; 13 in Idlib; 13 in Hama; 8 in Deir Ezzor; 7 in Daraa; 6 in Raqqa (LCCs).

Points of Random Shelling: 309 points, including 21 points of warplane shelling, 2 of which were bombed with explosive barrels, 2 with vacuum bombs, 1 with cluster bombs. 122 points shelled with artillery, and 100 points with mortars. 61 points were shelled with rockets (LCCs).

Clashes: 107. Successful operations include shooting down a regime helicopter in the Raqqa suburbs, and storming the police headquarters and seizing a large amount of ammunition and arms. In Damascus Suburbs, FSA rebels destroyed one of the checkpoints at the intersection of Baghdad and Adawi streets (LCCs).

 

News

Syria Rebels Blame Regime for Civilian Massacre Video footage posted by activists on the Internet and purported to be of the attack’s aftermath showed several residential buildings in a neighborhood identified as Ansari reduced to heaps of rubble and engulfed in smoke. Rescuers, many of them appearing to be rebel fighters by their dress and weapons, could be seen on the video frantically pulling out the dead and wounded, including children.

Syria: ‘Children Are Biggest Casualty’ Doctors in Aleppo tell Sky’s Stuart Ramsay that more children are being killed and injured in greater numbers than rebel fighters.

Israeli Strike Into Syria Said to Damage Research Site While the main target of the attack on Wednesday appears to have been SA-17 missiles and their launchers — which the Israelis feared were about to be moved to Hezbollah forces in Lebanon — video shown on Syrian television appears to back up assertions that the research center north of Damascus was also damaged. That complex, the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center, has been the target of American and Western sanctions for more than a decade because of intelligence suggesting that it was the training site for engineers who worked on chemical and biological weaponry.

President Assad accuses Israel of destabilising Syria President Assad said on Sunday that last Wednesday’s raid “unmasked the true role Israel is playing, in collaboration with foreign enemy forces and their agents on Syrian soil, to destabilise and weaken Syria”. But he said, in a meeting with Saeed Jalili, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, that his country’s military was able to confront “current threats… and aggression”.

Syrian opposition chief under fire for talks with Assad allies The Russian and Iranian foreign ministers, and U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden, portrayed Syrian National Coalition leader Moaz Alkhatib’s new willingness to talk with the Assad regime as a major step towards resolving the two-year-old war.

Hopes of Syria talks rise as 5,000 die in a month Assad backers Iran and Russia speak to opposition as January toll reported amid worsening refugee crisis.

Syria opposition creates Aleppo police force The move is part of rebels’ attempt to restore law and order in areas under their control in the northern city.

 

Special Reports

The new Syria will need human rights, not reprisals
The top priority is bringing an end to the slaughter. But we must ensure that, after Assad, revenge does not lead to abuses.

Israel on airstrikes in Syria: When we say something, we mean it Israel’s defense minister indicated that his country was behind the airstrike on Syria last week, noting that Israel has issued warnings against moving weapons into Lebanon.

Eastern Syrian town lives under al Qaeda rules
In a small town in Syria’s east [Mayadeen], Islamist militants have taken unclothed mannequins they see as sexually enticing out of the shops. Members of the al-Nusra Front, al Qaeda’s Syria affiliate, have also prevented women from wearing trousers, preferring that they adopt the shapeless head-to-toe black veil. The town of 54,000 on the Euphrates river offers a snapshot of what life could be like if Islamist rebels take control of significant areas of Syria as President Bashar al-Assad loses further ground… Government forces left the town in November and half its inhabitants fled during the fighting. Now al-Nusra, the Free Syrian Army, local militia and tribal groups have carved the town into fiefdoms. Residents say there are around 8,000 armed men in total.

 

Syria Deeply

One on One: Miriam Elder
As part of our series of interviews with journalists covering the Syria crisis, we reached out to Miriam Elder of The Guardian. Elder, the newspaper’s Moscow correspondent, discusses Russian media’s coverage of the war in Syria, its longtime ally. “The last report I can remember seeing from Syria,” she says, “was at the beginning of September.”

One on One: Nicholas Kristof
As part of our series of interviews with journalists covering the Syria crisis, we reached out to Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times. Kristof is a bi-weekly columnist and a two-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize. He has been covering the Syria story since its earliest days, reporting from Syria in late November. ‘It’s frustrating that we have this apathy,’ he tells us.

While Fighting Rages, Syria’s Clerics on the Sidelines
Al Husseini hopes to leverage his good reputation, religious credentials and independence into a political organization that would take root during Syria’s transition, hoping to attenuate calls for vengeance and help bring to fruition a civil and modern government. He has teamed up with roughly 100 civil and religious leaders to establish the Building Civilization Movement. The only name he would mention among them is a famous Sufi scholar, Sheikh Muhammad Al Yaqoubi. Preaching a tolerant brand of Islam that has deep roots in Syria is both the natural and only way for the country to heal after the war ends, Al Husseini said. Salafism, a conservative branch of Sunni Islam which is gaining in prominence due to support from Arab Gulf countries, will subside “when the fighting ends and the money runs out, and people will return to their true nature,” he said.

Behind the Lens: A Week in Sha’ar, Aleppo
In our effort to showcase unseen images of the Syrian crisis, we’ve featured the work of photojournalist Nicole Tung. Tung is a 26-year-old American whose photos from Syria have been published in TIME magazine, The New York Times, and other global news outlets. The Hong Kong native is a graduate of New York University and has traveled in and out of Syria since the early months of the war. Here, she photographs patients in and around the hard-hit Aleppo suburb of Sha’ar, including the Sunni stronghold’s since-destroyed Dar al-Shifa Hospital.

45 Minutes on a Syrian Smuggling Route
It’s also important that we not get caught be the dreaded gandarma, the Turkish border police, who patrol these routes with frequency. If we stumble upon one, I am instructed in the car, I am to ditch my flak helmet in the brush or hand it off to the fixer. I am to say two words, in Arabic: “Ana Suria.” (“I am Syrian.”)

Carl F. Hobert – Teach Deeply: Why We Need to Educate America’s Students About the World Syria Deeply’s founder, Lara Setrakian asked me to coordinate a new education initiative called Teach Deeply, addressing that need. Today, we’re very proud to launch our first project, Teach Syria. It’s a simple tech-savvy solution for increasing foreign policy education in our nation’s schools, in partnership with IAmSyria.org and President-Elect Steve Armstrong of the National Council for the Social Studies (NCSS) as an Advisor. (Note: for the sake of transparency, I have to say that I am the President of IAmSyria.org).

My new paper, prepared for a briefing in Washington, D.C. that took place on January 15, 2013, is now out and is titled “Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords.” It should be read in conjunction with my previous briefing “The Shredded Tapestry,” and my recent essay “The Creation of an Unbridgeable Divide.”

 

Video Highlights

Rebels in Karnaz, Hama, bring down a MiG fighter http://youtu.be/A-qqITlr04

Rebels in Basr Al-Harir, Daraa, confiscates Iranian-made munitions from a depot belonging to pro-Assad militiashttp://youtu.be/Z2aQrZWRWJk

An aerial raid on Al-Ansari Al-Sharqi Neighborhood, Aleppo City, leaves scores of civilian casualtieshttp://youtu.be/h3K-nncuRoo Locals dig through the rubble in search of the dead and woundedhttp://youtu.be/ynnUeprnSo8 , http://youtu.be/-Mdps0qOWGg , http://youtu.be/4thOF70OhE4 Local are angry, threaten Assad with death. Some claim that an ambulance that entered the neighborhood was somehow involved in helping MiGs target the building that was hit. The building was mostly hosting refugees from nearby neighborhoodshttp://youtu.be/zHVz2J5pwpc

Meanwhile, in the nearby town of Hanano, members of the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Syria carry out a garbage collection campaign http://youtu.be/Fn-VLY8mmPY , http://youtu.be/BI3T-C7wIAo

MiGs continue their pounding of rebel strongholds in Homs City: Jobar http://youtu.be/9Qo0mBQwqBs ,http://youtu.be/twB18J98naQ

Elsewhere in Homs Province, the pounding of the town of Al-Hosn continues http://youtu.be/zJuRTUJ6hTQ

Rebels bring down a helicopter gunship in the town of Tabaqa, Raqqa http://youtu.be/miyNDw2sxYE Local reports speak of some damage caused by the shelling to the nearby Euphrates Dam. Should the Dam burst, hundreds of thousands of people will be affected, especially the inhabitants of Tabaqa and Raqqa City.

An IED explodes in Baghdad Street, Damascus City, injuring one passerby http://youtu.be/ebgkdpuVfnM

Meanwhile, deadly clashes between rebels and loyalist militias continue in Southern Ghoutahhttp://youtu.be/R15uArmZgyk The pounding of the town of Daraya continues http://youtu.be/ZoWld85RqQU ,http://youtu.be/wS38974ZcYI

Rebels in Daraa City mount on an attack on loyalist headquarters in Al-Balad District http://youtu.be/H1qt34IhvYo ,http://youtu.be/gUcBdqwZgSY But pounding by regime loyalists continues http://youtu.be/vdaoCspZQOw

In this video, fighters claiming to be members of Jabhat Al-Nusra claim to have discovered documents showing where chemical weapons are stored. They promise to invade thee locations take over the weapons for future use against Alawites and Zionists. The video appears something manufactured by the regime, since the speakers misquote the Qur’an on several occasions http://youtu.be/S-nO8vzlR80

Syria Revolution Digest: 31 January 2013

Random In Tandem!

Syrian Revolution Digest – January 31, 2013 

Some claim that dialogue will kill the revolution. Others assert that the armed struggle has already killed the revolution, but what’s really killing the revolution is failure to coordinate and to realize that a revolution, by its very nature, is a multi-track venture, involving politics and culture, as well as bullets.

 

Thursday January 31, 2013

 

Today’s Death Toll: 105 martyrs, including 4 children, 3 women and 3 deaths under torture: 58 in Damascus and Suburbs; 13 in Idlib; 12 in Aleppo; 12 in Homs; 4 in Daraa; 3 in Deir Ezzor; 1 in Quneitra; 1 in Hama; 1 Hasakeh (LCCs).

 

Points of Random Shelling: 337 points, including 15 points that were shelled by warplanes and helicopter gunships, 2 points using cluster bombs, 8 points with barrel bombs, 145 points using heavy caliber artillery where the most intensified were documented in Damascus Suburbs, 116 points were targeted with mortar and 57 points with rockets (LCCs).

 

Clashes: FSA rebels clashed with the regime forces in 145 locations. Sucessful operations included shooting down two warplanes in Damascus, in Harran Al-Awameed and the Dumair Airport. In Damascus Suburbs rebels also attacked regime checkpoints in Ain Tarma, shelled the military barrack located at the entrance of Yarmouk Camp, and targeted the Fakhoukh checkpoint located between the villages of Halboun and Wafra in the Qalamoun Region to the north (LCCs).

 

News

Syria warns of “surprise” response to Israel attack Damascus could take “a surprise decision to respond to the aggression of the Israeli warplanes”, Syrian ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdul-Karim Ali said a day after Israel struck against Syria.

Syria’s Confirmation of Strike May Add to Tension With Israel Most experts agree that Syria, Hezbollah and Israel each have strong reasons to avoid a new active conflict right now… But it is equally clear that Hezbollah — backed by Syria and Iran — wants desperately to upgrade its arsenal in hopes of changing the parameters for any future engagement with the powerful Israeli military, and that Israel is determined to stop it. And Hezbollah is perhaps even more anxious to gird itself for future challenges to its primacy in Lebanon, especially if a Sunni-led revolution triumphs next door in Syria.

Jordan Islamist sees clash with secular Syrian rebels Mohammed Shalabi, better known as Abu Sayyaf, said Islamist fighters with groups such as the Nusra Front, which the United States lists as a terrorist organization, had refused offers to join the rebel Free Syrian Army in return for pay and weapons. If Assad is overthrown, he told Reuters, the Free Syrian Army, or elements within it ideologically hostile to the Nusra Front, would immediately order Islamist groups to disarm. “Then there will be a confrontation between us and losses will rise, but I don’t want to pre-empt events,” he said.

Syrian opposition chief sets conditions for talks Khatib said via his Facebook page he was ready for dialogue with officials from Assad’s regime subject to conditions, including that “160,000 detainees” are released and that passports for exiled citizens be renewed in embassies abroad… Khatib said on his Facebook page that he rejected being subject to “intellectual terrorism” in putting forward the controversial proposal. “If anyone thinks that no Syrian wants to hear such ideas, he is deluded,” he added.

Syria mediator will not return to Damascus, guarded on talks “It is worthy of note,” Brahimi said of a statement by Syrian National Council leader Moaz al-Khatib that he was “ready for direct discussions” outside of Syria. But the UN-Arab League envoy said the reaction of the government and other opposition figures would be crucial.

 

Raw: Dutch student’s relief effort in Syria (Video)

Photos: An up-close account of death in Damascus

 

Special Reports

Kamal Allabwani: Can the Syrian Opposition Coalition be fixed?

Currently, members of the Coalition are unqualified for even the simplest political tasks; their experience and political culture are superficial. We must move toward a new government that will overcome the incompetency of this Coalition, and advance the revolution. We went to the previous Friends of Syria meeting in Marrakesh without a government and we will go to Paris without a government as well, despite the fact that we know that the international support is conditional upon building a political and civil administration. The compromises inherent in the Coalition have crippled it, and we have inflicted further losses on the revolution because of the process of formation and defects in its basic structure. Because we transferred the internal structure, or every mechanism of disruption, that the Syrian National Council suffered from to the Syrian Opposition Coalition, we have lowered the bar of achievement.

Syrian Spillover: Perspectives from Neighboring States

As the Assad regime continues its bloody campaign to remain in power, Washington Institute scholars assess the impact of current and potential spillover on Syria’s neighbors, Turkey, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon.

INSIGHT: Russia’s Many Interests in Syria

…the hopes that President Vladimir Putin will finally budge on his support for the Syrian regime are unwarranted. Russia is unlikely to change its position given that its interests in Syria are not only military and strategic, but also commercial and cultural.

Aid Groups in Syria Use Diverging Methods to Deliver Supplies

The United Nations says an international donor conference has raised about $500 million for humanitarian relief efforts inside war-ravaged Syria. Most of those funds are likely to go to aid agencies operating out of Damascus under official Syrian government supervision. But some relief workers say unofficial methods are better for reaching many Syrians in need of help.

Jennifer Rubin: Syrian slaughter: Numbers too large to conceive

A coincidence becomes a cruel joke in this case as “President Obama pledged an additional $155 million in humanitarian aid for Syria on Tuesday.” Really, the problem isn’t enough humanitarian aid? Don’t get me wrong — that is needed but what would be better, of course, would be some definitive U.S. action to stem the mass murder. Aid is for victims; U.S. action would be to prevent more victims.

How Israel’s air strike could help Syria

Though it’s unlikely that this changes anything dramatically, the strike allows Assad and company to, at least for the moment, emphasize a shared mission of “resistance and self-defense” against Israel. For Iran and Hezbollah, that’s likely a much more palatable reason to help Assad than is the true mission of saving his regime from the popular uprising that became a civil war. Any boost this gives to Assad’s alliances will likely be more about appearances than the underlying fundamentals of the conflict. The civil war is still bloody, costly, and overwhelmingly about fighting Syrian rebels, not Israeli air force jets. Still, in the ideologically charges Middle East, these things can matter.

Drowning in the flood: Foreign governments and agencies are failing Syria’s refugees

Agencies and host countries are struggling to cope. Most of the refugees are women and children. In Lebanon there are no official camps, so they lodge with families. Conditions in camps in Jordan and Iraq are grim. Earlier this year rainstorms and even snowy blizzards turned some camps into quagmires. Children died of cold. Some tents went up in flames as refugees stoked fires inside them to be warm. The plight of an estimated 2m Syrians displaced inside the country is even worse.

 

Who’s the Boss?

 

Speculations by some regime insiders, which they expressed on social media over the last 24 hours, assert that the Assad regime’s claim that a research facility was attacked by Israeli jets rather than a military convoy reveals that the regime in fact had no idea that Hezbollah operatives in Syria were arranging for transfer of sophisticated weaponry to their bases in Lebanon. If this is true, then, Syria is truly becoming a theater for operations by external forces of all kinds at this stage, and Assad, as I have argued earlier, is only a necessary but disposable placeholder at this stage. In the background, Iranian advisers must be busy setting up a new system designed to outlive regimefall and keep Iran’s relevant to the unfolding processes through the creation of a loyalist militias made up mostly of Alawite recruits.

 

A Political Solution?

 

I am all for a political solution at this stage, but those who call for such a solution then say that an arms embargo on both sides is necessary to enable it fail to understand the psyche of the combatants, especially those on Assad’s side. The reality is the real obstacle to serious talks in Syria is the regime itself, much more so than rebel intransigence or opposition incompetence. The Assad Camp still believe that events can be rolled back and that the regime under Assad leadership can and should survive. The idea of compromise is not an acceptable outcome for them, because they have long developed a belief that concessions, marginalization and defeat amount to the same thing. This mentality cannot be challenged until military realities on the ground have dramatically changed in favor of the rebels, including finding ways to neutralize Assad’s air superiority. Until this happens, no serious dialogue, hence no political solution, is possible.

 

Increased militarization at a time when opposition leader, Moaz Al-Khatib, has come out in favor of a conditional dialogue, might seem counterintuitive to some, but that’s only because their basic proposition about this conflict tend to be theoretical and fundamentally flawed. In fact, now that the international community has a credible partner in Moaz Al-Khatib, one who is willing to bravely go against the prevailing assumptions in his camp in order to seek resolution to the current crisis, the international community can now begin to seriously hedge its bets on the opposition. Facilitating a flow of weapons into the hands of moderate rebels will only enhance Moaz’s standing among them, allowing him to emerge as a leader with relevance on the ground, capable of delivering on promises when the time comes for transitioning beyond Assad rule.

 

Now more than ever, we have to think outside the usual box. Arab media report that Moaz Al-Khatib will be taking part on Friday in a meeting putting him together with American VP, Jo Biden, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov and UN envoy Al-Akhdar Al-Ibrahimi. It will be interesting to see what comes out of this.

 

 Video Highlights

 

Despite the ongoing shelling of their town, members of the local town council of Daraya, Damascus Suburbs, held their first even press conference, and briefed attending journalists on the conditions in the town and the nature of ongoing clashes with the regimehttp://youtu.be/nz7D2gcLw-g Rebels vow to continue their resistance. Scenes from the ongoing clashes in Daraya: a sniper targets but misses a local photographer http://youtu.be/BZlNO4Uw3II Attacking the regime’s marauding tanks http://youtu.be/ph37HXg6gqw keeping them at the outskirts of the town http://youtu.be/v7z0VsWd8pI But more than 80 days of bombardment have taken their toll http://youtu.be/HDuTbiKKvjE

 

Elsewhere in Damascus City, local activists in Al-Qadam find a number of unidentified bodies belonging to people who seem to have been summarily executed by pro-Assad militias http://youtu.be/VCRL3lT9W7o And the pounding continues http://youtu.be/duimowBab10 ,http://youtu.be/I13fz43fVcg , http://youtu.be/L7cPdTePhHU Homes catch on fire http://youtu.be/S02UmBodu54 The neighborhood of Midan is also targeted http://youtu.be/uvyBRSgCHCI Nearby town of Harasta, Eastern Ghoutah, witnesses intense clashes http://youtu.be/CIG83nJh4Jw ,http://youtu.be/ba1kK4Jbuhg

 

The attack on the town of Karnaz, Hama, continues http://youtu.be/7hv5zbE82D4 , http://youtu.be/fHClovDNtj8 , http://youtu.be/dm4MjvOEHCsRebels try to take down overflying warplanes http://youtu.be/jXuykqdU_-g

 

In Aleppo City, locals hold a mass funeral for the 80 victims of the Boustan Al-Qasr massacre http://youtu.be/fQc5oBZ92EI ,http://youtu.be/jKS2zBzwfH4

Syrian Revolution Digest: Wednesday, 30 January 2013

Impossible Dialogue, Improbable Politics!

In the absence of leaders, no dialogue is possible, and in the absence of dialogue no salvation is possible for a state crumbling along ethnic and regional lines. But with killers representing one side and nincompoops the other, our tragedy is bound to drag on for many months to come, and Syria’s fate might have already been sealed. Our only hope lies in having those few voices of rationality out there, represented by the like of opposition leader Moaz Al-Khatib and the Revolution’s top thinker, Yassin Al-Haj Saleh, finding enough soulmates in time to enable the opposition to project a strong alternative that can be embraced and empowered both by the international community and rebel leaders. Perhaps when one side finally stumbles on capable leadership and a viable program, the other side will be compelled to do the same to stave off defeat.

Today’s Death Toll: 144 martyrs, including 7 children and 3 women: 39 in Aleppo, 42 in Damascus and suburbs, 27 in Homs, 13 in Idlib, 7 in Hama, 6 in Hasakeh, 3 in each of Raqqah, Deir Ezzor, and Dara’a, and 1 in Qunteira(LCCs).

Points of Random Shelling: 374 points, including 13 points from warplane shelling, 2 points have been recorded from the use of phosphorus bombs, and 1 point each from cluster bombs, Thermobaric bombs, and TNT barrel. Artillery shelling has been recorded as 146 points and was most violent in Damascus, followed by 130 points of mortar shelling, and 80 points of missile strikes (LCCs).

Clashes: 133 locations. Successful operations included the downing of two warplanes in Karnaz and Kafar Nabouda in Hama, liberating the military Gas Station on Aleppo-Latakia Highway, and hitting various loyalist checkpoints in Harran Al-Awamid and Qadam neighborhoods in Damascus (LCCs).

 

News

Israeli Jets Blast Arms Shipment Inside Syria The early-morning strike in a border area west of Damascus targeted a convoy of trucks carrying Russian-made SA-17 missiles to Hezbollah, the anti-Israel Shiite militant and political group in Lebanon, according to a Western official briefed on the raid.

Syria Opposition Leader Would Talk to Assad Regime Al-Khatib was chosen in November to head the Syrian National Coalition, a new umbrella group designed to represent most of the rebels and soothe Western concerns about the ability of the opposition to pull together and present a viable alternative to Assad’s rule. His offer to talk to regime officials threatened to fracture the opposition once again. After an outcry, al-Khatib said he was just expressing his own opinion.

Piecing Together Accounts of a Massacre in Syria The rebels and the government have blamed each other for the mass killing, but Ms. Sherlock, of The Daily Telegraph, reported that many of the dead were residents of rebel-held areas whose families said they disappeared after traveling to government-held areas. “It was impossible to be certain who was responsible for their deaths. But those identified, at least half the total by nightfall, were from rebel-held districts, and locals blamed government checkpoints on the other side of the river.”

 

Special Reports

The Battle for Syria’s Minakh Air Base
Located on flatlands and ringed by wheat and potato fields that offer little cover or concealment, the base and the village at its eastern side have even been nigh unapproachable. To venture near has been to risk machine-gun and rifle fire, as well as high-explosive ordnance from armored vehicles and tanks or an attack from one of the patrolling aircraft that serve as the lifeline for entrapped soldiers within. The rebels hope to change that this winter. In recent weeks they have rejoined the battle for Minakh with greater intensity, driven in part by a sense that the government garrison on the base – thinned by casualties and defections – is significantly weaker than what it was.

Will Syria Bleed Hezbollah Dry?
Reports indicate that Hezbollah recently expanded its actions in Syria to include its most valued resource — its highly trained and strategically irreplaceable special forces units. Hezbollah’s secretive military wing is reportedly composed of 2,000 to 4,000 professional soldiers and thousands of reservists hailing from Shiite villages south of the Litani river and the Bekaa Valley, meant to be called into action to repel a future Israeli invasion. During the 2006 conflict with Israel, the loss of roughly one quarter of Hezbollah’s special forces was assumed to constitute the group’s most severe setback. Varying reports from Syria suggest that the direct participation of these special forces units in combat zones nationwide has increased, and additional forces may be on the way.

Impossible Dialogue, Improbable Politics
The willingness of Syrian opposition leader Moaz Al-Khatib to dialog with the Assad regime was misrepresented and misinterpreted by all. For in order to conduct such dialog with regime figures, Mr. Al-Khatib stipulated the release of all 160,000 political prisoners currently languishing in regime jails, granting Syrian passports to all Syrian exiles, and holding the talks somewhere outside Syria. A regime that has already failed to honor its commitment to release 2,300 detainees as part of a much publicized prisoner exchange program that led to the release of 50 Iranian hostages held by rebels, the regime released only 200 detainees to date, is unlikely to accept these conditions, and Mr. Al-Khatib knows it. So, why even make the overture, one might ask? Smart politics.

Rejecting dialog outright when international leaders are calling for a political solution is simply not smart politics, entering dialog without any conditions as some opposition groups who recently met in Geneva seem willing to do is equally dumb. But asking for something that makes sense, sch as freedom for all political detainees so they can take part in monitoring the dialogue, and so that conditions on the ground for making dialogue possible are created, now that’s smart politics. That’s brave politics, and Mr. Al-Khatib has shown to be a capable leaders. Unfortunately though, he has also shown himself to be a lone voice in a political wilderness. The criticism he has received from the very coalition he is leading proves it.

 

Video Highlights

The regime pound the city of Tabaqa, Raqqa Province, with barrel bombs http://youtu.be/Kql50ylJHsI  Rebels try to take down the planes with their heavy guns http://youtu.be/TPeuzf38y0Y

I have commented on this leaked video before, but now it comes with English subtitles: Soldiers of Al Assad’s army arrest a civilian and torture him to entertain themselves. They try not to hit him hard in order to keep him alive so that they can have more fun. He begs them to let him see his kids one last time, but they insult him by agreeing on one condition which is letting them sleep with his wife. At the end of this footage, some of them get angry and sad because he died and they lost their enjoyment! http://youtu.be/XGcQoScTWn8

Sounds of clashes in Ariha, Idlib http://youtu.be/ZM6puYOfEMg , http://youtu.be/Iqshyo4vWdc

Rebels in Deir Ezzor City celebrate the liberation of the political security headquarters http://youtu.be/DpCdnu50d-w

Rebels in Al-Qadam Neighborhood, Damascus City keep repelling attempts by regime forces to storm the neighborhood http://youtu.be/bobI6rme95U , http://youtu.be/JlWP2gqB1xA , http://youtu.be/Zp6T29uHhF8 The pounding of the nearby Yarmouk Camp continues http://youtu.be/_92HRVUSWpc In Eastern Ghoutah, this goes for a quiet day in the suburb of Harasta http://youtu.be/cmZXt-kJfPo

Rebels in Salaheddine Neighborhood, Aleppo City, stand by a no-man’s land separating them from positions of regime loyalists http://youtu.be/u7uj67yevu0