Today’s Death Toll:131 (including 5 women and 6 children)

36 in Damascus and suburbs, 26 in Aleppo, 18 in Homs (mostly in Rastan), 17 in Idlib, 12 in Daraa, 6 in Deir Ezzor, 8 in Hama and 3 in Raqqa.

Points of Random Shelling: 256

Clashes:103

Rebels brought down a helicopter in Hassakeh and captured loyalist soldiers in Deir Ezzor as well as a major arms depot in Aleppo (LCC).

In Jordan, officials who defected from the Syrian government announced that they had formed a new opposition group led by Mr. Assad’s former prime minister, Riyad Farid Hijab, one of the highest-ranking officials to desert during the conflict. The group, called the National Free Coalition of the Workers of Syrian Government Institutions, aims to keep state structures intact if Mr. Assad’s government falls, Reuters reported.

News

Foreign Minister Blames Sanctions for Syria’s Troubles

Iran warns against Patriot deployment on Syria frontier

Syrian rebels gaining ground in Aleppo, opposition says

Palestinian faction leader Jibril leaves Damascus: rebels

Key rebel commander killed in Aleppo

UN contingency plan to deploy up to 10,000 peacekeepers in Syria – reports

Push Begins in EU to Arm Syria Rebels

UN, EU urge more Syria aid as conflict enters ‘new phase’

NATO says Syrian Scuds hit ‘near’ Turkey

Zarqawi’s brother-in-law reported killed while leading Al Nusrah Front unit

Special Reports

A Bread Shortage Is the First Big Test of a Transitional Council in Aleppo
In August, the prominent doctors, engineers, pharmacists and businessmen sheltering here established the Aleppo Transitional Revolutionary Council, a kind of city government in exile for the liberated portions of the city. Mr. Khanji, 67, a civil engineer with a long history of opposing the Syrian government, serves as its president.

Syrian refugees on run: ‘I want people to feel our pain’
“I feel so much ashamed of myself, being in a warm place and having my violin with me and playing music while people have to stand in long queues in order to have something to eat,” he says.

Syrians sounding alarm over growing food shortages
The Sahel al Ghab plain, in Hama province, used to be one of Syria’s richest agricultural regions, producing grain, olives, rice, cotton and sugar. But this year has been disastrous because of the war. Several people from the area said their land wasn’t being farmed because of shellfire from regime-loyal villages.

Syria Deeply

Jabhat al Nusra Shows Its Bloody Mark on Aleppo
Jabhat Al Nusra, now a U.S.-designated terrorist group believed to have links with Al Qaeda, still wins fans in Syria for its disciplined, ferocious fighters. It is considered the most effective fighting force against the Assad regime, and its latest film highlighting attacks in and around Aleppo seeks to bolster that reputation. In an hour-long video… Jabhat al Nusra takes us behind the scenes of its suicide bombings and attacks on military bases, demonstrating its craft and explaining the reasons behind what it describes as jihad against the Assad regime.

Today’s Death Toll:106 (including 5 women and 8 children)

49 in Damascus and suburbs (including 4 in shelling of Hajar Aswad and 4 were shot in a funeral in Barza in addition to unidentified martyrs in Qaboun), 21 in Idlib, 11 in Aleppo, 8 in Daraa, 5 in Homs, 5 in Deir Ezzor, 4 in Hama, 2 in Qunaitra and 1 in Hassaka.

Points of Random Shelling: 262

Clashes:109

Heavy clashes took place in Damascus and suburbs, with rebels downing a MiG near the Damascus International Airport. Rebels also shelled the military airport in Deir Ezzor and downed a MiG there as well. In Aleppo, more than 100 soldiers and officers defected from the Defense factories following a rebel attack (LCC).

News

U.S. Officials: Syria Has Prepared Several Dozen Chemical Bombs

Russia Steps Back From Envoy’s Comments on Syria

Patriot missiles a warning to Syria’s al-Assad

Special Reports

Assad’s chemical card
There are plausible scenarios in which Assad would use CW in a tactical manner against his domestic enemies—and it’s not at all clear that he wouldn’t get away with it. Assad will fight tooth and nail to maintain control over Damascus, while also securing the route from Homs to the coast (an area that witnessed regime ethnic cleansing attacks)… Obama has now offered Assad another loophole with the designation of the Jabhat al-Nusra group as a terrorist organization. As soon as news came out that the designation was forthcoming, the regime rushed to claim that rebels had seized control of a toxic chlorine factory in east Aleppo, and may now use these chemicals in an attack. Such bogus stories set the stage for a possible attack in the future and provide Assad, and his backers in Moscow, with enough to muddy the waters.

In Syria, hunger spreads as war intensifies
Conditions are especially dire in the northern city of Aleppo, where civilians enduring incessant clashes and air raids in rebel-held districts say hunger is a new threat to survival in the 20-month-old revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.

Syria’s Kurds face uncertain future if Assad falls
The regime’s exit from Kurdish areas has sparked mistrust between the rebels and Syria’s third biggest ethnic group

Syria: a scathingly beautiful photograph of the edge of starvation
Artfulness only adds to this picture’s stark reality. Here is a sinister new chapter in the war between Assad and his people

Under Siege, Damascus Gets Desperate for Food and Fuel
As rebel fighters advance on the Syrian capital, those caught in the middle suffer from food, gas, and power shortages. Mikel Ayestaran on how Damascus residents are struggling to ride out the storm.

The Syria-North Korea Scud Missile Link
One day apart, North Korea launched a long-range missile to much fanfare, and the Assad regime fired Scud missiles on the rebels. Eli Lake on how the Hermit Kingdom helped Syria with the technology—and why chemical weapons might be next.

Russia and Its Syrian Debacle: When the Enemy of My Friend Becomes My Friend
For Russia, there are no good options left. The NCC is made up mostly of academics and dissidents with no military wing, and it has little hope of turning the situation in Russia’s favor if Assad is overthrown. “They have zero influence in Syria,” says Hassan Al-Huri, a Syrian businessman in Moscow who owns the Picasso restaurant and hosted his countrymen there. “If anything, the Syrian people now hate them for associating with the Russians,” he told me after the dinner was over. That means Moscow has no choice but to accept the loss of its last real foothold in the Middle East, says Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs. Says he: “Maybe they have no more illusions.”

Syrian opposition forces say they are on brink of major victory in Aleppo
If Syrian rebels succeed in breaching an infantry school in Aleppo, they will gain some strategically critical pieces of territory, a windfall of supplies, and possibly a slew of regime defectors.

As Syrian Rebels Close In, Assad Has Cards To Play
He still has thousands of loyal troops and a monopoly on air power. A moribund diplomatic process has given him room to maneuver despite withering international condemnation. And the power of Islamic extremists among the rebels is dashing hopes that the West will help turn the tide of the civil war by sending heavy weapons to the opposition.

Syrian Rebel Seeks Prisoner Exchange to Free Hostages
The commander, Amar al-Dadikhi of the North Storm brigade, which has been holding the prisoners at an undisclosed location in Syria’s northern countryside, said in interviews that he would free the hostages if the Syrian government released two prominent opposition figures and if Lebanon freed all Syrian activists in government custody.

Op-Eds

George H. Wittman: Syria Backstory
If Assad is to be replaced, who will replace the Alawites?

Michael Young: For Obama, it’s not too late on Syria
… the U.S. must rebuild its relationship with Syrians. This will be important for many reasons: to isolate the jihadists; to have a say in likely future talks between a post-Assad Syria and Israel over the Golan Heights; and to block Iran out of the country, and in that way contain it regionally. With some attention, this is achievable.

Syria Deeply

Interview with Robert Ford: The Terror Stamp on Jabhat al Nusra

News

Syria to U.N.: ‘Serious fear’ it will be framed for the use of chemical weapons

Syria Crisis: Rebels Capture Parts Of Sheik Suleiman Army Base Near Aleppo

Inside Syria: ABC News Reports on the Thousands of Displaced Syrian Refugees and the Threat of Chemical Warfare in the War Torn Country

US designates Syria’s Jabhat al-Nusra front a ‘terrorist’ group at lightning speed

Syrian rebels defy US and pledge allegiance to jihadi group Rebel groups across Syria are defying the United States by pledging their allegiance to a group that Washington will designate today a terrorist organization for its alleged links to al-Qaeda.

Syrian economy to shrink 20 percent in 2012: IIF War-ravaged Syria’s economy will shrink by a fifth in 2012 and all its foreign reserves could be spent by the end of next year, a global finance industry association said on Monday.

Syria’s Assad Will Use Chemical Weapons, Says Former Weapons Program General He listed mustard gas along with the sarin, VX and tabun nerve agents as the main elements in Syria’s chemical arsenal, whose existence Syria doesn’t even acknowledge… “They’re idiots, crazy. Simply they are killers,” he said.

EU moves closer to full recognition of Syria opposition Alkhatib said he expected to get a decision on Wednesday from the EU over whether it would recognise the coalition as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people. “This is under discussion because the European countries each have their own point of view and they are debating the issue,” he told reporters after he left midway through the ministers’ meeting. “They will give the final answer in Marrakesh.”

EU: Syria war is ‘stain’ on world conscience The European Union, winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, said at the award ceremony on Monday that the conflict in Syria was “a stain” on the world’s conscience. “Let me say it from here today,” said European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso. “The current situation in Syria is a stain on the world’s conscience and the international community has a moral duty to address it.”

Google trends: The moment Syria’s ‘revolution’ became a ‘civil war’ Google users are now almost three times as likely to search for “Syrian civil war” as they are for “Syrian revolution.” A week ago, the United Nations high commissioner for human rights warned that the country risked “a full-fledged civil war.” She’s probably a better judge than Google’s billion-plus users, but, according to the wisdom of this particular crowd, Syria has already crossed the line into civil war.

Special Reports

Syria rebels hope arms will flow to new fighter command
Despite using more effective battlefield tactics and acquiring more arms, the mainly Sunni Muslim fighters have so far lacked the firepower to deliver a decisive blow to Assad… “The Qataris and the Saudis gave us positive promises. We will see what will happen,” he said, adding that officials from Western countries, who also attended the meeting in Turkey, had not mentioned arming the rebels but talked about “sending aid”.

Caution urged over Syria chemical weapons
Privately, some western government officials say they think the use of CW by the Assad regime is unlikely. “He knows it would be a game changer that triggers outside intervention, which is why he probably won’t use them,” says one western official. “Nor are these weapons you can use with any safety in close combat guerrilla warfare.” Instead the much greater concern for the US and its allies, especially Israel, is that parts of the chemical arsenal will eventually fall into the hands of militant groups, such as Hizbollah and the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al Nusra.

Inside Bashar al-Assad’s Army
But as Assad’s army weakens, rebels and analysts warn, it is also becoming more extreme in its fight for survival. And two of the grimmest scenarios observers have long feared—that Islamic extremism could come to dominate the rebel fight, and that Assad could decide to attack with chemical weapons—now look more likely than ever to take hold.

The guns have fallen silent in Homs – but the fear remains
The city brutalised by Assad is calm. But this is no easy peace.  Following up on yesterday’s post, the regime continues to pursue a line of action that seems designed to allow it to use chemical weapons while blaming the rebels for it. Today, the regime tells the U.N. that it fears it will be framed for using chemical weapons. So, now we have a video purporting to show rebels experimenting with chemical weapons, and threatening to use them to wipe out the Alawites, and a public protestation designed to build an alternate theory of the would-be crime. Things do not augur well indeed.

Video Highlights

This leaked video shows the storming of the Army Headquarters in Damascus that took place on September 26, 2012 http://youtu.be/OY6Dhg14_tY. The car that was brought into the compound was later detonated, and all the Jihadi elements were killed during the ensuing gun battles. The clip was made by a loyalist officer using his mobile phone to capture the video he was watching on a laptop. The original video was taken by security cameras of the compound. The officer was captured by rebels during recent clashes around Damascus.

An incendiary bomb lands in the town of Aqraba, Damascus, sending people scurrying in all directions thinking it was a chemical weapon http://youtu.be/HQhnktKuoHY People are convinced that Assad will be using chemical weapons against them.

A clip showing a reported WMDs storage facility In Mazzeh District on the periphery of Damascus City http://youtu.be/3uG3kPfji1o

A missile launcher recently won by rebels in Damascus suburbs http://youtu.be/l4iXhFOhK7g

But the pounding of restive suburbs in Damascus continues: Yelda http://youtu.be/8tFiZdPmyNg ,http://youtu.be/Bw80zvMa0WM Daraya http://youtu.be/fLJp3KMZxac Zabadani http://youtu.be/WQGgba43row Douma http://youtu.be/7QV61yTJ7fg , http://youtu.be/sk6853KeKRM ,http://youtu.be/FRLTHfQ2rrU

Violent clashes take place in Harasta, Damascus http://youtu.be/YNlkGbFrFrg ,http://youtu.be/hGanJF3kPXQ , http://youtu.be/wMOp1a42lcs , http://youtu.be/FNvtCkFppXU ,http://youtu.be/DyEgPvyH2j8

Sounds of clashes in Salhiyeh Neighborhood in Damascus City http://youtu.be/f2lSYNiWdJU

Rebels in Aleppo showcase their gains from their takeover of the military base of Sheikh Sulaiman http://youtu.be/8kckmjjrCKg