Thank You, Revolution!

Syrian Revolution Digest – November 16, 2012 

This Revolution has opened up our eyes and minds. We can SEE clearly now: the hypocrisy of East, West, North and South has been totally exposed. Ideological interests and sectarian belongings trump humanitarian considerations any given time – we suspected as much, but now we KNOW. Resistance ideology and its global sympathizers, the responsibility to protect and its advocates: lies and liars all. But we still have few more illusions to shed before we are completely free. Long Live the Revolution. Goodbye long-cherished illusions.  

 

Video Highlights

An aerial raid on Deir Al-Assafeir, Damascus Suburbs http://youtu.be/RTSCAqv9aKA The MiG was soon brought down by rebels, these are its remains, as well as the bodies of the pilots http://youtu.be/Dz33oUub6SI ,http://youtu.be/0qlQ5nnb2-M Meanwhile, Saba is pounded http://youtu.be/t0ULuIKKWVU ,http://youtu.be/QLoEcbFlKAU , http://youtu.be/qyJVqXgpU0o Hamouriyeh was also poundedhttp://youtu.be/KLhHs9lnjUo And Arbeen http://youtu.be/ZcTntJ_ij04 And Kafar Batna http://youtu.be/6JDIYfGCbOA

The pounding of Jobar Neighborhood in Damascus City continues http://youtu.be/xXqarfHpIvg

An aerial raid on Taftanaz, Idlib Province http://youtu.be/hYxVCtGvfBM Another raid on Marrat Al-Noumanhttp://youtu.be/ZIX1Z8N5zwI

Time for Efficiency!

Syrian Revolution Digest – November 14, 2012 

The National Coalition needs to learn from the mistakes of its predecessor, the Syrian National Council. It needs to learn that getting recognition, both domestic and international, is hinged on its ability to be efficient in its management of relations with rebel groups, in-country activists and refugees. Its leaders should arrange visits to refugee camps soon, as well as meetings with top defectors, rebels and activists. They should also realize that a government of technocrats should put skill and experience over political ideology and communal background.

Today’s Death Toll: 100

President Obama’s recent remarks on Syria divulge a more proactive approach towards managing the ongoing conflict there than previously exhibited. Still, the President obviously maintains the same reluctance towards military intervention, even in the form of providing greater support to the opposition beyond nonlethal and humanitarian aid. Still, the statements mark a step in the right direction. The newly formed National Coalition can improve its chances of making this new policy even more open by proceeding with the formation of a technocratic leaning transitional government and an effective military council, as well as by providing a more inclusive vision for Syria’s future.

Meanwhile, and while the political processes continue to unfold, developments on the ground are still very much influx. Rebels looked set to liberate the north just a few days ago, but today, they have suffered several reversals, with the town of Khan Shaikhoon falling back to the regime and a major segment of the city of Idlib. The battle and the war are not over yet. Nothing can be taking for granted. The regime continues to receive regular shipment of weapons and supplies from Russia and Iran, but support to rebels’ continues to be spotty and irregular, which is not conducive to a situation where momentum can be maintained.

The President’s Remarks:

Q. Mr. President, the Assad regime is engaged in a brutal crackdown on its people.  France has recognized the opposition coalition.  What would it take for the United States to do the same?  And is there any point at which the United States would consider arming the rebels?

THE PRESIDENT:  I was one of the first leaders I think around the world to say Assad had to go, in response to the incredible brutality that his government displayed in the face of what were initially peaceful protests.

Obviously, the situation in Syria has deteriorated since then.  We have been extensively engaged with the international community as well as regional powers to help the opposition.  We have committed to hundreds of millions of dollars of humanitarian aid to help folks both inside of Syria and outside of Syria.  We are constantly consulting with the opposition on how they can get organized so that they’re not splintered and divided in the face of the onslaught from the Assad regime.

We are in very close contact with countries like Turkey and Jordan that immediately border Syria and have an impact — and obviously Israel, which is having already grave concerns, as we do, about, for example, movements of chemical weapons that might occur in such a chaotic atmosphere and that could have an impact not just within Syria, but on the region as a whole.

I’m encouraged to see that the Syrian opposition created an umbrella group that may have more cohesion than they’ve had in the past.  We’re going to be talking to them.  My envoys are going to be traveling to various meetings that are going to be taking place with the international community and the opposition.

We consider them a legitimate representative of the aspirations of the Syrian people.  We’re not yet prepared to recognize them as some sort of government in exile, but we do think that it is a broad-based representative group.  One of the questions that we’re going to continue to press is making sure that that opposition is committed to a democratic Syria, an inclusive Syria, a moderate Syria.

We have seen extremist elements insinuate themselves into the opposition, and one of the things that we have to be on guard about — particularly when we start talking about arming opposition figures — is that we’re not indirectly putting arms in the hands of folks who would do Americans harm, or do Israelis harm, or otherwise engage in actions that are detrimental to our national security.

So we’re constantly probing and working on that issue.  The more engaged we are, the more we’ll be in a position to make sure that we are encouraging the most moderate, thoughtful elements of the opposition that are committed to inclusion, observance of human rights, and working cooperatively with us over the long term.

My take on Obama’s position can be found here:

On Wednesday, Obama gave no sign though that despite his re-election there would be any major shift yet in his Syria policy.

“The US has been virtually missing in action on Syria so far, but their recent moves, including the push for the formation of the coalition, indicates that they might be ready to adopt a more proactive attitude,” said pro-democracy Syrian activist, Ammar Abdulhamid, a fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

“The heavy lifting, though, including arming rebels and perhaps pushing for a de facto no-fly zone, might still be left to other countries at this stage,” he told AFP.

US analysts said questions remained over the new coalition, highlighting for example that a Kurdish body had still not joined.

The opposition now needs to work on setting up a transitional government and some form of military council, they said.

“What the United States is looking for… is one military organization where all military aid can be channeled, that in turn can be relied upon to distribute the money among fighting groups inside the country, leaving out the jihadi groups,” said Marina Ottaway, senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“This is a very admirable plan. I’m not sure that it can work,” she told AFP, adding: “The idea that somehow by centralizing the distribution of money the jihadi groups will be cut off, I don’t think it’s realistic.”

Abdulhamid agreed that before the international community could start arming the rebels a “mechanism for vetting groups and delivery channels need to be agreed.”

Max Boot has a more nuanced take in Commentary Magazine:

President Obama and the U.S. continue to lag behind in trying to influence events in another important country, in spite of the major role played by American diplomats in helping to organize the Syrian National Coalition. That is a major problem, because there is only so much France—or other states such as Qatar and Turkey, which are eager to topple Bashar Assad—can do.

Only the U.S. can organize a coalition to impose a no-fly zone and thus hasten the end of the barbarous Assad regime. If we fail to act, the humanitarian and strategic costs of the war will continue to grow—as witness recent incidents of Syrian forces directing fire near to, and sometimes over, the borders with Israel and Turkey.

Writing in The Christian Science Monitor, Bilal Saab, executive director and head of research and public affairs of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), argues that

Obama’s policy of ‘staying the course’ in Syria should be weighed against worsening strategic realities in the country and region. Only a careful military program to help the rebels, including arming and training them, can stem the growing costs of US inaction.

For his part, Thomas Friedman advocates a policy of convincing Russia to “fall on the grenade” and “midwife a transition process in Syria. But that would be the equivalent of flipping Russia from herself, which is even more out there than the idea of flipping Syria from Iran by engaging Iran. Putin & Co. are more likely to midwife a process that will take us back to Assad’s bosom, than away from Assad’s rule. The truth is Syrians don’t need anyone to fall on his sword or grenade for them. Rebels simply need support, and midwifing a transition process can still happen from a safe distance, for now. Further delays will definitely change this calculus, and we could indeed face a “Kosovo Situation,” or worse, a regional meltdown brought about by an imploding/exploding Syria, as Friedman himself has argued.

 

Video Highlights

Rebels in Aleppo City showcase advanced missiles they claim to have recently confiscated from troops loyal to Assad, saying that they have been asking for these missiles for a long time, but no one in the international community was willing to provide with this type of weapons. Finally, Allah stepped in to fill the gaphttp://youtu.be/JRe4wfNE0Fs

A new massacre in Diyabiyeh http://youtu.be/71Om1Y8xSTQ , http://youtu.be/vInd0voEiJc Meanwhile, clashes between rebels and loyalists in Eastern Ghoutah Region continues: rebels destroyed a tank in Bouaydahhttp://youtu.be/7VIyETxNhzE The indiscriminate pounding of Qaboun continues http://youtu.be/SSv_K785J94 MiGs continue to take part in the pounding as well: Kafar Batna http://youtu.be/FcaK6-912Vo Helicopter gunships continue to drop Thermobaric bombs on the region http://youtu.be/eSmOJJTTf28

In Deir Ezzor City, militias loyal to Assad regime keep targeting mosques with their shellinghttp://youtu.be/DAA8AVUbXaE Some neighborhoods in the city have been turned completely into rubble as is the case in Jbeileh http://youtu.be/fYVHegSJxJI

Locals pull the bodies of the dead from under the rubble, following an aerial raid on Alboukamal, Deir Ezzor Provincehttp://youtu.be/wJxGBcvD2-I

No Time to Waste!

Syrian Revolution Digest – November 13, 2012 

The beliefs and leadership style of Mouaz al-Khateeb are likely to resonate with major segments of the population in Syria, including key figures in the country’s minority communities. Moreover, and as a respected cleric, he has a certain moral authority to occasionally challenge certain popular stands on issues and to advocate more pragmatic policies. But, without major backing from the international community to the Coalition, and through the Coalition to the rebels, Mouaz’s appeal and legitimacy will prove ephemeral. The priority for the Coalition at this stage should be to identify key defectors and rebel leaders that can be supported and to take control of all border checkpoints to ensure that distribution networks are not coopted by extremist elements. The sooner this is done the sooner members of the international community will be able to make a decision on backing the Coalition.

While many are hailing new opposition leader, Mouaz Al-Khateeb’s moderate credentials, some are alreadyquestioning them. This is indeed a legitimate thing to do. But for a culture steeped in confessional prejudice, moderation does not mean complete lack of prejudice, but the ability to rise above it and advocate policies that can work for all communities. Mouaz might have made, at one point or another in the course of his public career, or even recently, statements that smack of anti-Semitism or confessional bias, but his entire public career so far has been a constant attempt to try to rise above prejudice and reach out to the other sides of the equation, while maintaining influence and relevance in his own camp. It is people like Mouaz who represent our hope for a better future at this particular juncture in our history. On account of his lingering prejudices, he still retains relevance in his own camp (Islamist and pragmatic Sunnis), and because of his sincere attempts to rise above these prejudices, he managed to gain respect and relevance in other camps as well (minority communities, especially Christians and Kurds). That’s what makes him a potentially unifying figure. Trying to fault Mouaz for making statements that reveals some of the prejudices that we all grew up with, while neglecting a long career of trying to reach out to the other sides, with some success as one can judge from the reaction of many minority figures to his election, is to engage in a zero-sum game. There is simply no strong and organized constituency for the unbiased leader at this stage, there is only the potential thereof. Transforming this potential into a reality will take decades. People like Mouaz will have to play a critical role in the transition process, if it is to be successful.

(For those interested in historical comparisons and literature, Mouaz’s position is comparable to that of the Roman Prefect in Rudyard Kipling’s story The Church at Antioch. Since his main interest is to bring back order, his personal prejudices seem irrelevant).

Indeed, people like me, that is, people who, in some circles in the West, are often hailed as “moderates,” are actually far from it within the context of our prevailing social and political culture. We are indeed radicals. We have long made a radical departure from most if not all prevailing norms in our societies, to the point that we are now, and for the most part, politically irrelevant and unpopular. But, while our break from the prevailing culture did not stop us from understanding and explaining it, or even from contributing to the making of the revolution itself, we are not in a position to benefit politically from that, as evidenced by the ability of Islamist and leftist elements to completely marginalize us from all ongoing political processes at this stage, despite our stronger connections with western governments and international organizations. Nor will we be given credit anytime soon for our contributions to the revolutionary upheavals, and they are numerous despite the small size of our popular base. That’s why our activities at the Tharwa Foundation, for instance, were meant more to inspire imitation than acquire followers. That was the only way we could influence the processes on the ground.

And although some of us might make better technocrats than our political rivals, it’s highly unlikely that any of us will be entrusted with such positions. Ideology will continue to trump national interest in the political calculations of opposition groups for a long while to come. We are not going to get beyond ideology unless people like Mouaz are successful. Their task is a daunting one, and liberal democracy activists can only support from a distance. Personally, I have long become accustomed to this kind of arrangements.

Of note in this regard as well, are the observations made by my friend, Amr Al-Azm: “The Formation of Syria’s National Coalition: An Assessment and Analysis.”

 

Video Highlights

The pounding of Damascene suburbs continues: Saqba http://youtu.be/iuy21Qz80x8 MiGs and Sukhoys take part in the action http://youtu.be/J_Idg8nPtMA , http://youtu.be/ouGYqOw6lkI Yalda was also targetedhttp://youtu.be/MKOys_M5HO0 , http://youtu.be/7rGXlsmSdvc And Kafar Batna (where the cameraman was almost killed when the bomb dropped next to his position) http://youtu.be/C8YOZ6zBQaM

These tanks seeing entering into the Tadamon neighborhood in Damascus City are believed to be recent imports from Russia. They are quite different from tanks that have been deployed before http://youtu.be/ayfLHFSr4_w And the pounding begins http://youtu.be/74J3E9Ku3gU

Sounds of clashes in Qaboun Neighborhood in Damascus City http://youtu.be/ltlZfja5qVQ

MiGs also targeted the suburbs of Moadamia http://youtu.be/m52VtwriBOQ and Darayahttp://youtu.be/Qoi4JPc4Vew , http://youtu.be/K1JIxolln5I in the western parts of Damascus. In Daraya, the bombardment kills the members of an entire family http://youtu.be/7aQi_eAkKk8

The Kurdish-majority town of Ras-Al-Ain (Seri Kanye) on the borders with Turkey and which has recently been taken over by Islamist rebels have also been targeted by MiGs for the second straight day http://youtu.be/JyL4FZgr4dY ,http://youtu.be/UYU2kUw0wT8 , http://youtu.be/vt5czEUWecI Locals are sent scurrying in all directionshttp://youtu.be/sRVnSPnOsI0 Locals collect the body parts of the victims http://youtu.be/L1Od6yAZNn4 Impact of the pounding http://youtu.be/IGpG0uA6138

MiGs also targeted the town of Alboukamal, on the border with Iraq http://youtu.be/O7WoxHFrOlA ,http://youtu.be/I4BwoM5xNno , http://youtu.be/MKMld8M9fBU

Recognition & Aftermath!

Syrian Revolution Digest – November 12, 2012 

Syrian opposition is beginning to get the regional and international recognition it needs. But will this recognition go beyond “humanitarian and non-lethal assistance?” The Obama Administration does not want us to expect much beyond that in terms of overt assistance. The heavy lifting, it seems, will have to be done by others. Will the Brits go for it?

Press Releases: Formation of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces Press Statement | Mark C. Toner | Deputy Spokesperson, Office of the Spokesperson | Washington, DC | November 11, 2012

 

Video Highlights

After three months of trying, local rebels finally managed to get the body of their colleague, executed by pro-Assad militias in Deir Ezzor City. His body has already turned into skeletal remains http://youtu.be/Je30mL3eTdA

Leaked video shows pro-Assad militias openly looting homes in the Damascene suburb of Douma. They are making fun of how little they are getting, while mimicking how rebels speak when they showcase the weapons they earn after a successful battle with militias. The poor looting the poor while fighting so a dictator can retain power and continues to enrich himself http://youtu.be/JSME6zSmscs , http://youtu.be/sUa1WQnjkko Posing for the camerahttp://youtu.be/z1uynuHGg7E

Regime tanks taking part in pounding Harasta Suburb in Damascus http://youtu.be/stBdCz9ij20 Same in Yaldahttp://youtu.be/fvRr2fjl1gc while MiGs pound Saqba http://youtu.be/qbU8gbZzgls , http://youtu.be/jLej_KNQOe8 AndHamouriyeh http://youtu.be/wlfeFFJvstg Rebels and loyalist militias clash in nearby Arbeenhttp://youtu.be/9u0IkOsuCjE , http://youtu.be/cPXDsdQPcj0 New massacre in Dhiyabiyehhttp://youtu.be/kc1nCPXt5vk , http://youtu.be/0KvTG3KY8oM

Rebels clash with loyalist militias in Aleppo City: Boustan Al-Qasr http://youtu.be/NXbkcEJhMko ,http://youtu.be/6H3gofO__uc Khan Al-Assal http://youtu.be/yL8PtzH5vmA , http://youtu.be/DNj5hql94aY

Sounds of clashes in Deir Ezzor City http://youtu.be/qMgKraXsTvc

Remains of the downed helicopter in Alboukamal, Deir Ezzor Province http://youtu.be/sHAl4NmoLno ,http://youtu.be/mxesCV3rtn4 The plane has been pounding the town before it was shot downhttp://youtu.be/I7vTIBcztFw