SJAC Update | December 12, 2017 View this email in your browser Syrians cast their vote in a controversial presidential election in 2014. Although the government claimed voter turnout was at 73%, many observers criticized the process and said the results were illegitimate. | Photo from Wikimedia Race to the Ballot Box: UN Must Learn from Past Mistakes, Avoid Pre-Mature Elections in Syria Last week, the eighth round of UN-sponsored peace negotiations between the Syrian government and the opposition began in Geneva. Leading the talks, Syria Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura prioritized discussion of elections. In March 2016, de Mistura had proposed an 18-month timeline for the election date, and the issue has continued to be on the top of his agenda. His emphasis on elections is likely a strategic one. Elections would symbolize a turning point in the conflict and signal that recovery is on the horizon. It would also lessen an overwhelming obstacle in the negotiations – who will lead in post-conflict Syria – by leaving the decision to the Syrian public. Despite these benefits, the Special Envoy should bear in mind lessons-learned from past transitional elections and avoid prioritizing a short-term win over adherence to best practices. Some scholars argue the promise of early elections is vital to peace and democracy in post-conflict settings because they facilitate peace settlements, encourage international actors to contribute peacekeeping forces, and expedite democratization processes. But elections also carry a number of risks, particularly in unstable post-conflict contexts: Renewed violence: In transitional elections, security issues are a primary concern. Early elections in the absence of demobilization or disarmament efforts increases the likelihood that one side to the conflict will reject the results and return to armed conflict. This is especially true when there is no means of power-sharing and government institutions have not been rebuilt. In 2010, a presidential election in Côte d’Ivoire descended the nation into a renewed civil conflict after losing candidate Laurent Gbagbo refused to cede power and forces loyal to each candidate took up arms. Inaccessible ballot locations: Insecurity and violence will also prevent voters from going to the polls. Moreover, some 11 million Syrians have fled their homes since the war began. Ensuring that displaced peoples have a safe, confidential, and practical means of voting will require resources, infrastructure, and coordination with states that are hosting refugees. Without security at ballot boxes or an opportunity for the displaced to vote, the results of any election will be skewed and seen as illegitimate. READ MORE The Syria Justice and Accountability Centre (SJAC) is a Syrian-led and multilaterally supported nonprofit that envisions a Syria where people live in a state defined by justice, respect for human rights, and rule of law. SJAC collects, analyzes, and preserves human rights law violations by all parties in the conflict — creating a central repository to strengthen accountability and support transitional justice and peace-building efforts. SJAC also conducts research to better understand Syrian opinions and perspectives, provides expertise and resources, conducts awareness-raising activities, and contributes to the development of locally appropriate transitional justice and accountability mechanisms. Contact us at info@syriaaccountability.org. Unsubscribe  |   Preferences Facebook

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By: Adam King
Impunity Rights News Reporter, Africa

ANTANANARIVO, Madagascar  — The Pneumonic Plague, a disease considered by many to be nonexistent, continues to ravage large parts of Madagascar. As CNN reports, 124 people have died from the Plague so far with estimates of upwards of 1,200 people infected. The World Health Organization provides a thorough summary of the current outbreak.

“Since August 2017, Madagascar is experiencing a large outbreak of plague affecting major cities and other non-endemic areas. From 1 August through 30 October 2017, a total of 1801 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of plague, including 127 deaths, have been reported by the Ministry of Health of Madagascar to WHO. Of these, 1111 (62%) were clinically classified as pneumonic plague, including 257 (23%) confirmed, 374 (34%) probable and 480 (43%) suspected cases. In addition to the pneumonic cases, 261 (15%) cases of bubonic plague, one case of septicaemic plague and 428 cases (24%) where the type has not yet been specified, have been reported (Figure 1). As of 30 October, 51 of 114 districts of Madagascar have been affected (Figure 2 and 3). Since the beginning of the outbreak, 71 healthcare workers have had illness compatible with plague, none of whom have died.”

While 127 deaths seems to be low, a continued trend in the current direction could reach epidemic levels. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention does not ascribe a  certain numerical figure to an epidemic, but rather where “an agent and susceptible hosts are present in adequate numbers, and the agent can be effectively conveyed from a source to the susceptible hosts.” That appears to be how this strain of plague is being characterized.

“Pneumonic plague is more virulent or damaging and is an advanced form characterized by a severe lung infection that can be transmitted from person to person via airborne droplets such as through coughing or sneezing, for example. The incubation period is short, and an infected person may die within 12 to 24 hours.”

WHO does not believe that the infection will spread beyond Madagascar’s borders.

“WHO and the Malagasy government have stepped up screening at airports but say the infection is more likely to spread within Madagascar than it is to spread to other countries. But international spread is not a big threat, because pneumonic plague shows up quickly after someone is exposed to the bacteria. Exit screening at airports — like checking for fever — can help stop people from carrying the infection abroad.”

The difference between the widely known bubonic plague and the pneumonic version that is currently in Madagascar is the method of transference. Pneumonic is much more dangerous because it can be spread through contact between infected and uninfected people. Bubonic is transmitted from the bite an infected animal, which in the case of the plague in centuries ago in Europe, such as a rats or mosquitoes.

Despite these numbers, some opine that the outbreak is waning and new cases are on the decline.

“The large plague outbreak that began in Madagascar in August appears to be waning, according to government case counts and local news reports… A World Health Organization spokesman, Tarik Jasarevic, confirmed reports in Malagasy media that both deaths and new cases were declining and most hospitalized patients had recovered.”

For more information, please see:

NBC News — ‘Unusually Severe’ Plague Strikes 1,800 in Madagascar’ — 3 November 2017

The New York Times — ‘Deadly Plague Outbreak in Madagascar Appears to Wane’ — 2 November 2017

World Health Organization — Plague – Madagascar — 2 November 2017

BBC News — ‘124 dead, nearly 1,200 infected with plague in Madagascar’ — 25 October 2017

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — ‘Principles of Epidemiology in Public Health Practice’ — 18 May 2012

ICTJ World Report October 2017

In Focus › Is the United States Ready for a Truth-Telling Process? Fania Davis thinks the time has come for a truth-telling process about racial injustice in the United States, and she is working to make it a reality. We sat down with her and her colleague, Jodie Geddes, to discuss their vision for a national process, what they hope it would achieve, and what they have learned from their conversations with local leaders so far. Read More ›

Publications › Justice Mosaics: How Context Shapes Transitional Justice in Fractured Societies › Media and Transitional Justice: A Dream of Symbiosis in a Troubled Relationship ›

Other News To Prevent Enforced Disappearances, Rethink the Justice and Security Equation With enforced disappearances on the rise, ICTJ President David Tolbert says the path to prevention is clear: the international community must reorder its priorities and change its approach. The disproportionate attention on counterterrorism takes us further away from accountability and prevention, Tolbert writes. He urges the international community to lead the way in unequivocally censoring governments that use enforced disappearance as a political tactic — and ensuring there can be no impunity for this crime. Read More › A Noble Dream: The Tenacious Pursuit of Justice in Guatemala Bring General Rios Montt and other high ranking members of the military to trial in the Guatemalan courts for genocide? In 1999 it was a noble dream for justice, but one with little apparent possibility of ever coming true. Walk the long path to justice that led to this historic trial. Read More ›

Upcoming Events › October 17 – 22, 2017 22nd Workshop in Budapest: Practices of Memory and Knowledge Production › Location: Budapest, Hungary November 09, 2017 Reckoning with Racial Injustice in the United States › Location: NYU School of Law’s Lipton Hall, 110 West Third Street New York, NY 10012

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