by Emilee Gaebler
Impunity Watch Reporter, South America
CARACAS, Venezuela – As President Hugo Chávez continues his six month fight with an unspecified cancer, talks about the future of Venezuela circulate. A new article, by former Former Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere Affairs, Roger Noriega, addresses the tenuous situation. The startling article, published just days ago on April 11, describes a complex power scheme that is currently playing itself out.
Noriega believes that the increasing visibility and operational roles of high-ranking military officials are indicators that the military is preparing to take control of the country. In one portion of his article Noriega even notes his belief that the military plans to instate martial law throughout the nation if necessary to gain control in an unstable situation.
“In my estimation, the approaching death of the Venezuelan caudillo could put the country on the path toward a political and social meltdown. The military cadre installed by Chávez in January already is behaving like a de facto regime determined to hold onto power at all costs…his lieutenants and foreign allies are behaving as if he were already dead — consolidating power, fashioning a “revolutionary junta,” and plotting repressive measures,” writes Noriega.
Other analysts express concerns with the recent promotional decisions by Chávez. In January, he named Diosdado Cabello as the leader of the ruling party and of the National Assembly. As reported by MercoPress, this was done to pacify a group of powerful military officers including; Defense Minister – General Henry Rangel Silva, Chief of Intelligence – Cliver Alcalá, and Chief of Military Intelligence – General Hugo Carvajal. All three men have been linked by US drug offices as having associations to the drug trade.
Noriega makes clear his belief that these military cadres will, “never surrender power and the impunity that goes with it,” and abide by the results of an election because it will never provide legitimacy for a “Venezuelan narco-state.” Noreiga forecasts an unstable Venezuela, with the fall of the Chávez administration, where men like Cabello, Silva, Alcalá, and Carvajal will not hesitate to use the billions of dollars in illegal drug money they have acquired and the force of the tens of thousands soldiers under their command to keep hold of power. Troubling statements by General Silva earlier this month hint at this.
“We are going to recognize whoever wins the October 7 elections. We’re not just going to recognize whoever says they won,” was Silva’s obscure comment. He has previously expressed a very strong stance that the Venezuelan military would never accept an opposition party taking control of the country.
The next presidential elections are scheduled to occur in just over six months, on October 7 of 2012. Chávez pledged earlier this year to be a candidate for them, but at a mass in his hometown last week, his statements indicated the gravity of his desperate struggle against cancer.
“Christ … give me life, because I still have things to do for the people and this country. Do not take me yet,” he said. Chávez made this statement just after returning from his third trip to Cuba to receive cancer treatments.
For more information, please see;
MercoPress – Revolutionary Junta to Consolidate Chavism, Forecasts US Expert in LatAm Affairs – 14 April 2012
In Sight – Is the Venezuelan Military Eyeing a Power Grab? – 13 April 2012
Washington Post – Hugo Chávez Rallies Thousands of Supporter Marking Return After 2002 Coup in Venezuela – 13 April 2012
CNN – Chávez Returns to Venezuela After Latest Round of Treatment – 12 April 2012
Foreign Policy – After Chávez, the Narcostate – 11 April 2012
